Falcons vs Bengals Week 7 Picks and Predictions: Mixon's Endzone Endgame

Sunday sees the Atlanta Falcons travel to face the Cincinnati Bengals as near-touchdown NFL odds underdogs with both teams sitting on 3-3 records, coming in having won last week.

The Falcons have been a pleasant surprise this season and sit second in the NFC South, while the Bengals sit second in the AFC North but are probably a little disappointed by their campaign so far.

Don’t miss our NFL picks and predictions for Falcons vs. Bengals on Sunday, October 23.

Falcons vs Bengals best odds

Falcons vs Bengals picks and predictions

Sunday sees the Falcons march into the Paycor Stadium and attempt to leave with the W. The Falcons have been hugely impressive so far this season and have exceeded their expectations but the Bengals will offer a tough challenge.

The Bengals offense is built around Joe Burrow and his brilliant group of wideouts led by Ja’Marr Chase. Such has been their brilliance in the past 12-14 months that we’ve largely forgotten about Joe Mixon, but not today.

Mixon has been a mainstay on the Bengals offense since he was drafted in the second round of the 2017 NFL Draft. He hasn’t really lived up to expectations so far this season, much like the Bengals themselves, but is still as short as -120 to score a touchdown.

Those -120 NFL player props odds don’t leap off the page but I’m here to tell you that it’s one of the safest bets that you can make this Sunday, despite the former Oklahoma man having just one rushing touchdown and another through the air.

One key stat to highlight is that Joe Mixon leads the entire NFL with rushing attempts inside the five-yard line, with 10 attempts — and all that has resulted in just one touchdown. Three of the other four players who make up the Top 5 in this metric have at least six touchdowns. That’s indicative that we should soon see positive regression.

It’s also worth noting that last week he scored from a Joe Burrow pass, leading the running back to say that “check downs turn into touchdowns around here”. As well as being used on the ground he’s also being targeted in the passing game a lot more than last season, getting at least a 10% target in five of six games this season, compared with just seven of 17 in 2021. 

Mixon is due some positive regression and this week we will see him rush into the endzone for the first time since Week 4, it’s worth the bet at -120, even if it’s just something you add into a parlay.

My best bet: Joe Mixon anytime touchdown (-120)

Falcons vs Bengals spread analysis

The Bengals come into this game as 6.5-point favorites, with the line sticking firm since opening. Given the quality of the Bengals offense, it’s a fair line, although you can argue that trends could push you toward betting on either team to cover.

The Bengals come into this 4-0 against the spread in their past four games on field turf and 12-2 ATS in their past 14 games, going back into last season’s Super Bowl run.

If you’re looking for a trend that only focuses on this season, then the Falcons have covered in every single game, which perhaps shows that the sportsbooks have underestimated them. The question then becomes whether they are finally being given the respect they deserve.

With the line sitting just below a score I’d lean towards backing the Bengals. The talent in all the skill positions, as well as a strong defense, combined with a Falcons team who are missing their best runner, make me think that the Bengals should cover this.

Falcons vs Bengals Over/Under analysis

We’ve seen a lot of movement on the total, initially opening at 45 and now being as high as 47.5. We’ve spoken about the Bengals offense and what they are capable of, but you can’t underestimate the Falcons, who have put up 146 points through six games. 

The Falcons are coming into this fresh off a game in which they put up 28 points on the much-admired 49ers defense. As such, it’s easy to see why the line has risen since opening, but I’d argue that it’s perhaps risen too far and I’d lean towards backing the Under.

The Under is 7-1 in the Falcons’ past eight games following a victory and 7-0 in the Bengals’ past seven post-win games. Interestingly, the Under is 10-1 in the Bengals’ past 11 games overall and 4-0 in their last four at home.

For these reasons, I’d recommend following the trends and backing the Under once again.

Falcons vs Bengals betting trend to know

The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on field turf.  Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Bengals.

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