It may not be the most eagerly anticipated game of the weekend but this clash between Matt Ryan and Daniel Jones’ teams will give one of them a chance to get the first win under their belt.
If you’re betting on football in Week 3 then don’t miss our NFL picks and predictions for the Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants on Sunday, September 26.
Falcons vs Giants odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Giants have remained 3-point favorites since opening with no change to the line. There has been movement in the points total though, with the line slipping from 48.5 down to 47.5 since opening.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Falcons vs Giants picks
Picks made on 9/23/2021 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Falcons vs Giants game info
• Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
• Date: Sunday, September 26, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Falcons at Giants betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key injuries
Falcons: AJ Terrell CB (Out), Russell Gage WR (Out), Kendall Sheffield DB (Out), Frank Darby WR (Out).
Giants: Cameron Brown LB (Out), Nate Ebner S (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The New York Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last eight against NFC opposition. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Giants.
Falcons vs Giants predictions
Giants -3 (+100)
It’s hard to know exactly what this Giants team is. In the season opener, they got smashed by the Broncos, and then on last week’s Thursday Night Football, they lost by a single point against a relatively decent Washington Football Team.
They’re ranked 12th in the league in offensive DVOA, which is surprising for a 0-2 team with Daniel Jones under center. So far, Jones has thrown for 516 yards, which places him in the middle of the pack. But impressively, he’s yet to have an interception, something which has plagued him in his short career, racking up 22 interceptions in his first two years in the league.
Elsewhere, there still feels like a number of question marks around their offensive weapons. Saquon Barkley hasn’t shone so far, and it still looks like they’re easing him back in after that season-ending injury last year.
Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton have started the season brilliantly, with both players probably slightly underrated by most fans. Kenny Golladay, who arrived in free agency, hasn’t quite lived up to the ‘Babytron’ nickname that he earned in Detroit, and first-round pick Kadarius Toney has shown more explosiveness on social media than the field.
Their opponents on Sunday have similar questions around them too. Mike Davis has struggled as the lead back and offensive weapon Cordarrelle Patterson has already started to eat into his playing time.
The post-Julio Jones era has also started slowly, with Calvin Ridley accruing just 116 yards and one touchdown through two games. Kyle Pitts, however, looks like he could be a potential monster. He’s yet to score but has been a threat in the receiving game, even leading in yards against the Bucs and, crucially, has shown his ability as a run blocker too.
Ultimately, this game could be a lot more compelling than you may imagine at first. Both teams have the potential to be exciting on offense and both have players who you feel are primed for a big, big game.
The Falcons sit bottom of the league for overall DVOA but there was a marked improvement in week two’s defeat to the Bucs compared to the performance they gave the Eagles in the season opener.
A win is coming for Atlanta soon but, unfortunately, I don’t think it’ll be this week. I’m of the belief that the Giants do have some good pieces and their defense isn’t respected quite as much as it should be. I’m taking the Giants to win their first game of 2021 and to cover the spread in the process.
Over 47.5 (-110)
We’ve already covered Daniel Jones’ start to the season, which has been largely positive for a player who came into the year with big doubts about whether he’d be a starter in 12 months’ time. If he continues to impress, then he could put up some big numbers against one of the league’s worst defenses.
We’d also expect to see Atlanta improve on a slow start, and I’d imagine we’ll see Matt Ryan to get 350+ yards here. That should play into the hands of their receivers, and we could see Kyle Pitts get the first touchdown of his career.
If both teams commit to offense, then we’ll see a shootout and they should smash the total points target, a relatively low 47.5 points, so grab the Over now.
Kyle Pitts Over 4.5 Receptions (-130)
This game is primed to be a breakout for the Florida product. When Kyle Pitts was drafted fourth overall this year, it was expected that we’d see an immediate impact, something unusual for the tight end position, where it often takes longer for players to get used to the NFL.
Pitts is a unique talent, and his arrival allowed the Falcons to move on from Julio Jones, with the 20-year old’s 6”6 frame able to replace the dominance that Jones offered and give Atlanta a red zone target.
So far, we’ve seen Pitts getting 14 targets across both games, with 4 and 5 receptions so far this season. The line sits bang in the middle at 4.5 and we’ll be taking the Over.
The Giants gave Broncos TE Noah Fant 62 yards and 6 receptions in week one and 45 yards and 5 receptions for Logan Thomas on TNF. Pitts is a better, more athletic player than either of those two and already more of a focal point in his team’s offense. Take the Over here before the line moves, we’re about to see the Kyle Pitts breakout.
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