The season is reaching the business end, and Sunday’s matchups give us plenty of opportunity to scour the NFL odds and find out who's might likely to score first in their respective games.
Here are three favorite first touchdown NFL picks for Week 11.
Week 11 first touchdown scorer props
- Robinson first touchdown (+500 at FanDuel)
- Hill first touchdown (+700 at FanDuel)
- Tillman first touchdown (+1,100 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 11 first TD picks
First TD prop bet #1: Bijan Robinson
Best odds: +500 at FanDuel
The Denver Broncos are one of the NFL’s better teams against the run, giving up just 103.5 rushing yards per game and a total of eight touchdowns to running backs. Normally, that would be a reason to avoid backing a running back to score, but with Bijan Robinson’s current form, we’ll ignore that and back the former Longhorn to open the scoring.
He’s on an incredible run right now. The first five games of the season saw him score just once, but he's found the endzone six times in the five games since.
He's a workhorse running back, one of the few in the NFL, and the team will look to feed him wherever possible. He’s had 39 carries over the past two weeks in addition to 11 targets.
First TD prop bet #2: Tyreek Hill
Best odds: +700 at FanDuel
It’s been a forgettable season for Tyreek Hill, but there’s reason for optimism. Tua Tagovailoa is back and healthy, and Hill managed to suit up against the Rams despite his injury. He may have only had three catches and just 16 yards, but he found the endzone for the first time since Week 1.
The Miami Dolphins are 7.5-point favorites, so they're likely to open the scoring against the 2-7 Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders’ defense has been good against the pass, but Tua loves Hill, and with them both being a week healthier, we should see an increase in volume and a rare chance to get him to score first at +700.
First TD prop bet #3: Cedric Tillman
Best odds: +1,100 at BetMGM
The sportsbooks are saying the Cleveland Browns trip to face the New Orleans Saints is basically a pick’em, so we could see a player from either team open the scoring. We know that Jamies Winston is never afraid to let it fly and given he’s facing his former team, we should see him let loose.
Winston becoming the starter has been a huge boost to Cedric Tillman, who's been exceptional in his last two games. He’s now the WR1 with Amari Cooper traded to the Bills, and he’s performed like one.
In the past two games, he’s caught 13 of 20 targets for 174 yards and three touchdowns. He’s going to continue to see heavy usage, and at +1100, we’re getting a huge price on the sophomore to open the scoring.
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