Nothing says that it’s Sunday like touchdowns, so what better way than to dive into the Week 13 odds slate and pick out the best value to be had on the First Touchdown Scorer market?
There are some big prices at play when it comes to these particular NFL odds, so let's get after it in my latest NFL picks for Sunday's action.
Week 13 first touchdown scorer props
- Jaylen Warren first TD (+650 at DraftKings)
- Kyle Pitts first TD (+1,700 at DraftKings)
- Rashee Rice first TD (+1,200 at bet365)
Picks made on December 1 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best Week 13 first TD scorer props
Prop bet #1: Warren rumbles
The post-Matt Canada era started with a win for the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. One major aspect that caught my attention was the relatively close competition between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren for carries, with Harris leading by just two (15 to 13). What makes it even more interesting is Warren's involvement in the passing game, being targeted three times, whereas Harris wasn't targeted at all.
Looking at the season's performance, Harris has only outscored Warren by a single touchdown. However, Warren has showcased greater effectiveness on the ground, boasting an impressive 5.8 yards per carry compared to Harris' 4.2.
Warren's prowess shines through as a yards-after-contact monster, displaying remarkable explosiveness. As the team gears up for a favorable matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, Warren stands a real chance of making a significant impact by potentially finding paydirt first.
Jaylen Warren prop: First touchdown scorer (+650 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #2: Backing the Unicorn
Not only are the New York Jets terrible against tight ends, but they’ve allowed six touchdowns to the position in 11 games. The Atlanta Falcons should also dominate time of possession on Sunday, considering Tim Boyle remains under center for Gang Green heading into Sunday.
Don't get it twisted, Atlanta will open the scoring, and given how poor the Jets are against TEs, Kyle Pitts is a solid value play at +1,700.
Kyle Pitts prop: First touchdown scorer (+1,700 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Got Rice?
Patrick Mahomes seems to have finally found his go-to receiver in Rashee Rice, filling the void left by Tyreek Hill's departure to Miami. Rice has emerged as the top pass catcher on the roster, and the signs are clear that he's become a pivotal part of the Kansas City Chiefs' offensive strategy.
Rice's impressive 107-yard performance last week marked the first time a Chiefs WR had surpassed the 100-yard mark since Week 7 of 2022. His growing role in the offense is evident, having secured eight receptions on 10 targets.
Despite the formidable presence of Travis Kelce, Rice offers substantial value in the quest to score the first touchdown. With his increasing prominence and Mahomes' apparent reliance on him, taking a chance on Rice could prove to be a rewarding proposition when the Chiefs face the Green Bay Packers.
Rashee Rice prop: First touchdown scorer (+1,200 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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