Gabriel Davis TNF Spotlight: Player Props for Thursday Night Football Week 1

The Buffalo Bills offense may be headlined by an NFL MVP candidate in Josh Allen and a bona fide superstar in Stefon Diggs, but for the season opener of the 2022 NFL season, I’ve got my eye on some Gabriel Davis props.

In case you forgot, the last time we saw Davis in action, he only dropped 201 yards and four touchdowns against the Kansas City Chiefs in a wild Divisional Round defeat.

Considered by many to be one of the league’s biggest breakout candidates this season — and I’m looking at three Gabe-focused NFL picks as he gets right down to business in Week 1 with some favorable matchups against the Los Angeles Rams' secondary.

Gabriel Davis TNF prop picks

• Over 4.5 receptions
• Over 56.5 receiving yards
• To score a touchdown

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Gabriel Davis TNF props

I have the touch(es)

Overall in 2021, Davis only played 47.7% of the team’s offensive snaps. However, below those numbers is two distinct stretches for the third-year wideout:

• First 12 games: Played more than 50% of the snaps twice, averaged 2.6 targets per game (with one or fewer targets in Weeks 2-5).
• Final six games (including playoffs): Played at least 83% of snaps five times (the other was 71% in a blowout win), and averaged 7.5 targets (4.5 catches) per game.

As Davis’ play improved, so did his opportunities. And he should consistently get more run this year with Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley, two veterans receivers ahead of him on the depth chart last year, no longer on the roster — putting roughly 30% of last year’s target share up for grabs — plus No. 3 WR Isaiah McKenzie isn't 100% healthy heading into Thursday.

Davis won’t gobble up all of those available targets, but he will get some of them in operating as the team’s No. 2 wideout.

As for his opponent, he also has a juicy matchup. Yes, the Rams are a strong defense, but defensive coordinator Raheem Morris utilized the second-highest zone coverage rate (68%) in the NFL last year, which plays into Davis’ strengths.

He was 18th among all receivers last year with an average separation of 1.81 yards per target, with that number jumping to 2.28 yards per target against zone coverage, and he had a 21.7% target rate against zone looks.

This line has moved at a lot of books to Over 3.5 catches (with heavy juice), but you can still find Over 4.5 receptions at plus money — that's what I'm looking at.

Prop: Gabriel Davis Over 4.5 receptions

Here comes the flood

Expecting Davis to be active in the passing game is one thing, but why do we think he’ll record at least 57 receiving yards — something he did just three times last year?

Part of it comes down to, again, the increased opportunity to run as the team’s unquestioned No. 2 receiver, but this pick is also a result of who he will be going up against.

When not in zone coverage, Rams superstar CB Jalen Ramsey will likely spend almost all of his time shadowing Stefon Diggs, leaving Davis to go against the rest of the L.A. secondary… which has a lot of question marks heading into Week 1.

The Rams added four corners from Day 3 of the NFL Draft, and there will surely be a bit of a learning curve (and blown coverages) in their first NFL game. Los Angeles also has a few carryovers from last year, but those were nickels and dime-package players, with the biggest addition being slot DB Troy Hill.

The veteran corner returns to the Rams after a disastrous season with Cleveland in 2021, which saw him give up his worst career opponent completion percentage (73.8), take more penalties (five) than his previous two years combined, and see his slot coverage grade drop by nearly half (per Pro Football Focus).

Dating back to the six games last year where Davis played significant snaps, he topped his current game total twice. However, in two of the games where he fell short, one was a difficult passing game with winds greater than 20 mph and the other a 47-17 blowout win nobody saw many targets, and key players were rested down the stretch.

The other two games saw Davis post totals of 40 and 43 yards — but was out-targeted by Beasley — who is no longer an obstacle.

Pro Football Focus has Davis projected at a per-game average of around 70 yards this season, well above his total for TNF. His number is sitting as high as 61.5 at some outlets, but you can also find the total as low as 56.5, which is what I'm pouncing on.

Prop: Gabriel Davis Over 56.5 receiving yards

Big time (in primetime)

The third-year receiver definitely picked up his play as the season went on, but one thing that has been evident through his first two seasons: when QB Josh Allen looks his way, the result is a meaningful catch.

Through two seasons, 69 of Davis’ 70 career catches have resulted in a first down or a touchdown. He was also third on the team (and 20th in the NFL) in regular season red-zone targets last year — despite being a non-factor for 2/3 of the season.

Gabriel Davis has averaged a touchdown every 5.4 receptions (70 Rec/13 TDs) since the 2020 season, 2nd-best Receptions Per TD rate of 69 qualified NFL WRs; League Avg: 12.8.#BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/WC3leOF4Ax

— Inside Edge NFL (@IE_NFL) September 5, 2022

The Bills also led the NFL in red-zone attempts last year (seventh in RZ TD rate), while the Rams were one of the better teams defensively by RZ TD% — but were just 17th in opportunities allowed.

I’m more inclined to side with the Bills’ offense prevailing in the red zone Thursday night, considering the uncertainty I’m expecting out of the Rams’ secondary, and that portends well for Davis to continue the roll he was on to finish last year, scoring in five of his last seven games.

Considering Diggs is anywhere from even money to +125 to find paydirt, I like the value on Davis — with easier coverage matchups and a proven nose for the end zone — at +150.

Prop: Gabriel Davis to score a touchdown

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