Nearly 40 years ago "A Christmas Story" was released, in which Ralphie wakes up on Christmas morning and gets the Red Ryder BB gun he desired so badly. Fast forward to the present day and Bears fans are getting a late Christmas gift that probably wasn't on their list: The Red Rifle.
That's right, it's the last dance for Andy Dalton in Chicago this week with the veteran set to start as the Bears host the New York Giants in Week 17 of NFL betting action.
We've got everything you need ahead of this Soldier Field slog with our NFL picks and predictions for Giants vs. Bears, with kickoff on January 2.
Giants vs Bears odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Bears opened at 6.5-point favorites this week and the spread has remained between Chicago -5.5 and -6, depending on the book. The total has been bet down to 37 after opening at 38.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Giants vs Bears predictions
Predictions made on 12/31/2021 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Giants vs Bears game info
• Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Sunday, January 2, 2022
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Giants at Bears betting preview
Weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Key injuries
Giants: Billy Price C (Out), John Ross WR (Out), Kadarius Toney WR (Out), Darius Slayton WR (Out), Jabrill Peppers S (Out), Daniel Jones QB (Out).
Bears: Justin Fields QB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Bears.
Giants vs Bears picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Any semblance of competitiveness the Giants had went down with Daniel Jones, as the Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm led G-Men have been in the mix as the worst team in the NFL in recent weeks. They are going to make a statement over these next two weeks, with losses to the Bears and the Football Team, that there's no competition. The undisputed worst team in the NFL, your New York Football Giants.
New York's been in free fall for weeks now, marked by five losses in six, with the lone win a 13-7 scrap vs. the Eagles. The Giants are down to 28th in weighted DVOA, 32nd on offense, and a slightly-less-repulsive 17th on defense. They're 31st in drive success rate on offense and 23rd on defense. I can continue to throw numbers at you but here's a too long, didn't read: New York is a terrible football team.
Allow me to continue to shock you with this next bit of news: the Bears aren't very good either. They are, however, a tier above the rock-bottom Giants. On offense, the Bears are 23rd in weighted DVOA but just as close to the 12th ranked Rams as they are to the Giants in DVOA. And, as last week's Nick Foles-led win over the Seahawks proved, it doesn't really matter which passer from Chicago's smorgasbord of middling QBs plays.
Chicago's more-or-less remained on the same trajectory as a bad team down the stretch. Its scoring margin for the year is -7.2, while over its last three it's -7.3. New York, meanwhile, boasts a season-long scoring margin of -7.8 but a hideous -18.3 mark over its last three.
Not all bad teams are created equal, and the Giants are unbelievably bad. Joe Judge is playing the dead-coach-walking hits and we're set to see both Glennon and Fromm on Sunday. Look away but first, take the Bears to cover.
Prediction: Bears -6 (+105)
Over/Under analysis
It's crazy, with a Glennon/Fromm platoon set to grace the field on Sunday, but I don't have faith in the Giants to go Over their team total of 16. That's a number they've failed to hit in eight games this year (and they once scored 17), including in five of their previous six games.
While the Bears' defense has been hit for some big games lately, that's been almost exclusively against offenses that range between competent (49ers and Seahawks) and great (Buccaneers, Cardinals, Packers). Plus, their secondary is another week removed from a COVID breakout that wiped out nearly the entire unit earlier in December.
Chicago limited Minnesota to 17, Detroit to 14, and Baltimore to 16. At home, the Bears will have no trouble holding the Giants below a team total that has been too big for New York in game after game this year.
Prediction: Giants team total Under 16 (-110)
Best bet
The Giants are oh so very bad that I wouldn't have really hesitated to take the Bears ATS as my best bet here, but to get Chicago -6 at +105? It's an absolute no-brainer.
New York hasn't shown much fight at all during its current four-game losing streak, laying down and waiting for another hideous season to end. Chicago, meanwhile, is coming off a scrappy win in snowy Seattle, led by third-string quarterback Nick Foles.
The Bears may not have an air of respectability around them (such is the result of still employing Matt Nagy) but they certainly don't have the stench of the G-Men hovering around them, either.
The worst team in the NFL will take to Soldier Field on Sunday and, Happy New Year Bears fans, it isn't the latest iteration of your beloved Monsters of Mediocrity.
Pick: Bears -6 (+105)
