There are several big spreads on the NFL odds board in Week 6, but none taller than the pile of chalk stacking up in Orchard Park, N.Y. for Sunday Night Football.
NFL Week 6 odds have the Buffalo Bills laying as many as 15 points when the in-state rival New York Giants come calling for a primetime non-conference contest.
New York is a miracle comeback against Arizona away from being 0-5 and has lost three straight games heading into Week 6, getting outscored by a collective 85-31 in those outings.
The G-Men catch Buffalo in a bad mood, with the Bills coming back from London with a loss in hand and more key injuries to members of the defense. Josh Allen & Co. will shoulder the load against a New York depth chart littered with ailments.
I run down the SNF odds for Sunday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Giants at Bills on October 15.
Make sure to also check out our TNF prop picks and Josh Allen odds and picks spotlight!
Giants vs Bills odds
Giants vs Bills predictions
New York Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has gifted the NFL media some gems over the past two weeks.
His most recent “notable quotable” was in praise of Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who Martindale prepares for Sunday night.
“Dan Marino’s arm, Derrick Henry’s legs, and Steph Curry’s mindset, in the way that he thinks he can hit a shot from anywhere on the court,” Martindale told reporters when asked about Allen.
In previous meetings with the Bills, Martindale’s defense – then running with the personnel of the Baltimore Ravens – did a pretty good job limiting Allen’s “shots”, especially when it came to making plays with his legs. In three past matchups with Baltimore, Allen amassed just 38 total rushing yards on 13 carries.
But that was Baltimore.
Martindale doesn’t have much to work with in New York, especially with the depth chart crumbling heading into Week 6. The Giants could be missing two starting linebackers for a unit that loves to bring the blitz. Martindale is dialing up extra pass rushers on over 41% of dropbacks – third highest blitz rate in the land.
Allen has some of the better wheels among the NFL QBs and is extra dangerous when feeling the pressure. He finished last year as the highest-rated running QB when under pressure (at Pro Football Focus) and currently holds the No. 1 spot in that same rating this season, as well as the top run rating versus the blitz.
Allen may have to make magic happen with his “Derrick Henry legs” when the G-Men bring the heat, as he could be down two of his top pressure release options in TEs Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox (both questionable).
So far in 2022, Allen hasn’t had to run too much. He broke out for 36 yards on six carries in Week 1’s loss to the Jets and had 46 yards on three runs versus Washington. Allen has also found the end zone with his legs in each of the past three games, including four runs for 17 yards on the ground and a score against Jacksonville.
The Week 6 NFL player prop odds have Allen’s rushing yard total set at 27.5 Over/Under.
That number shouldn’t be too tough to top, at least according to multiple player projections which have the Bills QB scampering for as many as 39.5 rushing yards. My number comes out just past 32 yards on the ground on Sunday Night Football.
My best bet: Josh Allen Over 27.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Giants vs Bills same-game parlay
Josh Allen Over 27.5 Rushing Yards
Josh Allen Touchdown Anytime
Buffalo Bills -15.5
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Wink will try to disrupt Allen with the blitz, and he’ll burn the G-Men with his legs. Player models all sit north of this rushing total.
Allen has rushed for a touchdown in three straight games and in seven of his last 13 games overall.
My power ratings said Bills -18 before making any adjustments for the laundry list of injuries to New York.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Giants vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis
To get an idea of how far the Giants have fallen in the first five weeks, consider the offseason odds for this game had Buffalo as a touchdown favorite at home in Week 6. That’s more than a touchdown increase from the offseason opinions.
The look-ahead markets moved to Bills -12.5 before Week 5. Following Buffalo’s 25-20 loss to Jacksonville in London and New York’s listless 31-16 lambasting at the hands of Miami, the official Week 6 spread hit the board at Buffalo -15.
My NFL power ratings pumped out an unadjusted number of Bills -18 and the bigger spread isn’t scaring off early bettors, with Covers Consensus showing 59% of picks “circling the wagons” with the Bills on Sunday night.
Also influencing that opening number was the neck injury suffered by Giants QB Daniel Jones, who is listed as questionable after missing practice Thursday. Jones is among a laundry list of starters labeled as questionable for Sunday night, including RB Saquan Barkley, TE Darren Waller, and almost the entire offensive line.
Should Jones sit out, backup Tyrod Taylor would get the start against the Bills defense. And given the play of Jones so far in 2023, there might not be much of a difference in terms of value to the spread between the two – besides Jones’ ability to run with the football.
Taylor could be missing pass protection and plenty of weapons versus a Bills stop unit sitting No. 8 in EPA allowed per play. The heart of this Bills stop unit is the pass rush, which owns the league’s best pressure rate (32.6%) and an NFL-high 21 sacks so far this season.
The Bills are without some important staples in their defense, losing coverage LB Matt Milano to a broken leg, DT DaQuan Jones to a torn pectoral muscle, and CB Tre’Davious White to an Achilles tear. However, veteran edge Von Miller returned in Week 5 with a snap limit and is expected to get more reps on Sunday.
The Giants will have an equally tough time tangling with the Bills offense on Sunday night. New York ranks 30th in EPA allowed per play and 28th in DVOA – two key advanced measurements.
The Giants are bowing for 0.513 points per play in the past three games – facing San Francisco, Seattle, and Miami – and take on another elite scoring attack, with Buffalo third in EPA and DVOA.
This Over/Under total opened at 46.5 points and has come down as low as 44.5, with Buffalo expected to do the lion’s share of the scoring.
The Bills do not take their foot off the gas in blowout wins, as we’ve seen them go for the throat in one-sided victories over Las Vegas, Washington, and Miami – so don’t let the game script convince you Buffalo will pace itself with a big lead in the second half.
The Bills are 2-3 Over/Under on the season while the Giants own a 1-4 O/U count due to their pop-gun offense picking up just 0.194 points per play (31st).
This is also a sticky situational spot for the G-Men in Week 6. Even with Buffalo having to travel back from a quick trip to London last weekend, New York is playing its second straight road game and third road stop in the past four outings.
The forecast for Orchard Park was calling for light rains earlier in the week, but as of Thursday the skies over Highmark Stadium are expected to be cloudy with light winds topping out at 9 mph for this 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff.
Giants vs Bills betting trend to know
Under head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are 18-2 SU and 11-7-2 ATS (60%) when laying more than a touchdown (-7.5 or higher), including a 7-5-2 ATS count (57%) when set as a double-digit favorite. Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Bills.
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Giants vs Bills game info
| Location: | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, October 15, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
| Opening odds: | Bills -15, 46.5 O/U |
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