Giants vs Cowboys Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 10: Ferguson's Growth Continues

The last time the New York Giants tangled with division rivals the Dallas Cowboys, they got blasted 40-0 at home.

By the looks of the Week 10 odds, books don’t expect much improvement from New York on Sunday.

Dallas is laying as many as 17 points at home this Sunday, marking the largest NFL odds spread of the 2023 season so far.

The number is warranted, considering the Giants are playing back-to-back road games, coming off a 30-6 defeat in Las Vegas, and starting third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito against a vaunted Cowboys defense.

That pile of chalk may scare away some bettors, but big favorites have made good of those lofty lines so far this season with double-digit faves going 7-3 against the spread.

I break down that big spread and Over/Under total for this NFC East encounter and give my best free NFL picks and predictions for Giants vs. Cowboys on November 12.

Giants vs Cowboys odds

Giants vs Cowboys predictions

Tight ends have always played a steady role in the Dallas Cowboys offense, but that receiving threat was missing in the early workings of the 2023 season.

Dallas let former TE1 Dalton Schultz walk in free agency this offseason and gave second-year Jake Ferguson the starting role at the position. Ferguson started the season out slow, catching only five balls on 11 targets for a total of 22 yards in the opening two games of the schedule.

However, Ferguson is quickly catching up inside this new Dallas playbook under offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and developing a growing chemistry with QB Dak Prescott over the past six games, in which he boasts an 84% reception rate.

"I've just gotta be there every single time,” Ferguson told the media. “So when Dak says, 'I'm throwing it to Ferg', he has ultimate confidence that I'm coming down with it."

Ferguson is coming off the best outing of his short pro career, grabbing seven of 10 passes for 92 yards and a touchdown in last weekend’s 28-23 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

He has a chance to build on that effort against a blitz-happy Giants defense that will bring a ton of pressure after Prescott, making Ferguson a live option as a quick check-down target. He was targeted seven times in Week 1’s meeting with New York but was able to wrangle just two of those throws.

Ferguson is now much more comfortable as the primary tight end and faces a Giants defense allowing 6.4 yards per pass attempt to TEs along with five TDs given up to the position — tied for most in the NFL.

What’s more, New York is allowing the fifth-most yards after the catch to opponents and sits seventh in missed tackles. Ferguson is averaging 10.3 yards per reception and has a total of 174 yards after the catch — 11th-most among all tight ends in the NFL.

Ferg has topped his receiving yards prop in five of the last six games since that wobbly start to the season, and even with the Week 10 Over/Under of 36.5 yards being a season-high, player projections for the Cowboys TE are positive.

Most models have Ferguson eclipsing the 36.5-yard mark, with my number coming out to 39.5, and the projected ceiling as high as 44 yards.

Given the large spread, the game script is working against the Cowboys’ passing offense, at least in the second half, should they lean into the run.

However, given that Ferguson played a season-high 67 snaps in Week 9, had a season-high 10 targets, and drew a team-high seven targets in the first meeting with New York, the table's set for another big day from Dallas’ budding TE.

My best bet: Jake Ferguson Over 36.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Giants vs Cowboys same-game parlay

Jake Ferguson Over 36.5 receiving yards

Tony Pollard anytime touchdown

Dallas team total Over 27.5 points

50% boost available

+350 +525 at bet365

Ferguson has taken a huge step up in this offense, coming off a season-high in snaps and targets and taking on a Giants defense that plays into his strengths.

Tony Pollard scored two touchdowns against the Giants in Week 1 and can find the end zone on the ground or through the air.

The Cowboys are 21-8 Over/Under versus their team total at home since 2020.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Giants vs Cowboys spread and Over/Under analysis

The offseason odds had this line as low as Dallas -5.5 this spring when the schedule was released. But New York’s inability to match the success of last season and a series of injuries at quarterback leave it as the biggest underdog of the 2023 campaign so far.

This spread opened as low as Dallas -15 last Sunday night and that got bet up to as high as -17.5 before some buyback on the Giants slimmed the spread to -16. As of Thursday, you can find the Cowboys as a consensus 16.5-point home favorite.

Dallas dominated the Giants in their Week 1 meeting, with the defense doing the bulk of the damage in a 40-0 blanking. The Cowboys scored two touchdowns via defense/special teams while generating seven sacks on QB1 Daniel Jones, who threw two interceptions in a rainy Sunday Night Football showing.

Jones is now out for the season with a knee injury suffered in Week 8 and backup QB Tyrod Taylor is also sidelined with broken ribs, leaving the G-Men with third-stringer Tommy DeVito under center.

DeVito posted an embarrassing QB rating of 3.6 in the loss at Las Vegas last weekend, throwing for 175 yards while completing 15 of 20 passes with one touchdown and two interceptions. Those turnover troubles are the biggest red flag when facing this ball-hawking Dallas defense.

The Cowboys have forced 13 total turnovers, with nine of those takeaways coming via interception and three of those picks going back to the house for defensive touchdowns. Dallas enters Week 10 as the No. 4 stop unit in EPA allowed per play and No. 4 in Defensive DVOA at FTN.

As for the Cowboys offense, this group was able to move the ball well against the Eagles’ stingy defense last week. Dallas went for over 400 total yards of offense but finished 3-for-5 in the red zone and left points on the table. Red zone possessions continue to be an issue for this group, which sits 29th in touchdowns percentage (43.75%).

However, Dallas’ scoring attack seems supercharged at home. The Cowboys average 37 points over their three home games this season and average close to 10 points more per game inside AT&T Stadium than on the road over the past three seasons.

The total for Sunday’s NFC East grudge match opened at 40.5 points and has slimmed to 38.5 over the course of the week, with Covers Consensus showing 67% of picks on the Over for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. The Week 1 meeting stayed below the closing total of 44 points.

Dallas enters with a 5-3 Over/Under record on the season and is 12-9 O/U at home since 2021. The Cowboys rank second in points per play at home but should they get up in the second half, this offense will be very conservative and lean into the run to kill the clock in the final 30 minutes.

New York is the best Under bet in football at 1-8 Over/Under, reflecting the Giants’ offensive woes all year. The G-Men are 31st in EPA per play and 30th in success rate and ever far less explosive with DeVito under center. They’re also playing a much slower pace in terms of seconds per play in recent weeks.

Giants vs Cowboys betting trend to know

The Dallas Cowboys have played Over their team total in 21 of their last 29 home games going back to 2020 (72% Over TT). Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Cowboys.

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