The Atlanta Falcons made a shocking decision to move on from their $180 million man after just 14 games. Cousins had an incredibly bad stretch of five games in which he threw for one touchdown and nine picks, and the team will look to rookie Michael Penix to take the helm.
My Giants vs. Falcons predictions expect Atlanta to lean on the run game, which should mean a strong performance from Bijan Robinson in my NFL picks for Sunday, December 21.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Mercedez-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, with the game airing on FOX.
Giants vs Falcons prediction
Giants vs Falcons spread prediction
The Giants are tied for the worst record in football at 2-12, but the G Men have gone 2-4 on the road compared to 0-8 at home. I fully expect Atlanta to win this one outright, but the Falcons will be starting a new QB, and it’s hard to know what might happen with such a significant change.
The 8.5 points are a lot for a team rolling with a rookie at the helm so late in the season, so I’ll lean toward New York to cover. That’s my lean, but I’m staying away from this line entirely.
Giants vs Falcons moneyline prediction
Atlanta is the more talented team here, and they should take the win at home. There is some uncertainty that comes with starting a rookie QB so late in the season for a team with playoff aspirations, but this is the Falcons’ game to lose.
I lean toward Atlanta here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if New York pulls off the upset on the road, where the team’s offense has scored nearly double the points it scored at home. I don’t want any part of this one, but if I had to make a wager, I like the +350 odds for New York rather than the -450 for Atlanta.
Giants vs Falcons Over/Under prediction
Each team is 5-9 to the Under this season, but I lean Over in this one. New York ranks dead last in points per game at 14.9, but the team has averaged 10.6 points at home compared to 20.5 on the road. Atlanta’s offense ranks 21st in points per game at 20.9, but it’s unclear what we’ll get from Michael Penix.
The Falcons should be able to move the ball through the run game, and New York can take advantage of Atlanta’s questionable secondary. I’m not a fan of this wager either given the uncertainty at QB for Atlanta, but I like the Over.
My best bet
Bijan Robinson Over 124.5 rushing + receiving yards (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The story of this game is Michael Penix’s first start, and I expect the Atlanta Falcons coaching staff to make him as comfortable as possible in this spot. That should mean plenty of opportunities for Bijan Robinson to tote the rock and corral check-downs.
Robinson eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark on the ground last week, and he sits at 237 carries for 1,102 yards and eight rushing TDs this season. He’s logged at least 22 carries in three straight games, and I bet that trend continues as the Falcons lean on the run game.
Robinson is one of the premier receiving backs in the NFL, and he ranks third in receptions (54) and receiving yards (411) among backs. The New York Giants has been surprisingly competent against the pass, but I expect Penix to check the ball down to his star back to get some easy completions.
Over his last eight games, Robinson has averaged 19.4 carries for 90.3 rushing yards and 4.1 receptions for 31.3 receiving yards. He eclipsed 125 rushing + receiving yards in five of those eight, including two of his last three.
The Giants have been gashed by the run this season, surrendering the second-most rushing yards to opponents at 143.7. New York surrendered 170 rushing yards in its last game out, and Atlanta will look to exploit this favorable matchup, control the clock, and take the pressure off of Penix.
Giants vs Falcons same-game parlay
Bijan Robinson Over 124.5 rushing + receiving yards
Malik Nabers anytime TD scorer
Drake London Under 65.5 receiving yards
The Falcons have allowed the seventh-most passing yards and the most passing touchdowns (20) this season. Malik Nabers scored for the first time since Week 3 in a favorable spot against the Ravens, and he’s got another juicy matchup on tap. I expect him to find the end zone for a second straight game.
Drake London has hit the Over on this receiving prop in just six of 14 games. He’s been better at home with 76.8 yards compared to just 63.3 on the road, but this pick is predicated on the uncertainty surrounding Penix in his first career start.
London hit the Over in less than half of his games with an experienced (albeit struggling at times) Cousins, and New York has surrendered the 12th-fewest passing yards this season.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Giants vs Falcons odds
Giants vs Falcons live odds
Giants vs Falcons opening odds
- Spread: New York +8.5 (-110) | Atlanta -8.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: New York (+350) | Atlanta (-450)
- Over/Under: Over 42 (-110) | Under 42 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Giants vs Falcons spread and Over/Under analysis
- New York has lost eight straight and covered just once in that span, bringing the team’s record to 2-12 straight up and 3-10-1 ATS.
- Atlanta snapped a four-game skid with a win over Las Vegas in its last game out, and the Falcons are 7-7 straight up and 5-8-1 ATS.
- The Giants have hit the Over in two of three, and the team is 5-9 to the Under this season.
- The Falcons have hit the Under in five of their last six, and the Falcons are 5-9 to the Under this season.
- 54% of Covers Consensus users are backing Atlanta on the spread, while 54% are taking the Under.
Giants vs Falcons betting trend to know
The Falcons have won three straight against the Giants dating back to 2015. New York has not won in Atlanta since 2007. Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Falcons.
Giants vs Falcons game info
| Location: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-22, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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