Giants vs Steelers Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for MNF Week 8

If the low total for Monday Night Football is any indicator, the Week 8 finale between the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers will be more of a defensive battle.

My Giants vs. Steelers predictions explain how that can play into New York covering in this week's finale. Find out more in my NFL picks below.

Giants vs Steelers predictions

Early spread lean
New York Giants +5.5 (-104 at FanDuel)

My analysis
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has amassed 69 total points in the past two outings after scoring a collective 92 through the first five games of the schedule. 

While that boosts some metrics for this offense, Pittsburgh still owns a success rate per play of just 39.4% in that span — which is lower than in its previous five showings.

Russell Wilson was solid under center but not outstanding, completing just 16 of 29 passes for 264 yards and two touchdowns, with the bulk of those gains coming on three passing plays for 30, 36, and 44 yards. 

The New York Giants, despite what we saw last Sunday, have an underrated defense.

New York gave up 28 points, but the bulk of the damage was done on the ground, with Philadelphia rumbling for 264 rushing yards. As for passing the ball, Jalen Hurts was 10 for 14 for only 70 yards and was sacked five times.

The Steelers enter Week 8 as the second-most run heavy playbook in the land but aren’t as efficient on the ground as Philadelphia, sitting middle of the road in EPA per handoff and success rate per carry. 

While I’m not rushing to bet on the Giants’ malfunctioning offense, I don’t feel confident the Steelers offense has the pop to cover this spread, which is near touchdown spread at some books. They’ll likely require some help from the defense, in terms of a pick-six or “scoop and score”.

Early Over/Under lean
Under 36.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

My analysis
This is one of the lowest totals of the season, with some books already down to 36 points for Monday Night Football. So far in 2024, totals of less than 40 points are 8-8 Over/Under.

New York’s offense looked to be finding its form earlier in the month, but this group has barfed out just 10 total points the past two weeks — despite getting standout rookie WR Malik Nabers back for Week 7.

The G-Men currently rank 28th in EPA per play, 23rd in Offensive DVOA, and 29th in red-zone touchdown rate (42.11%). Quarterback Daniel Jones has faced the eighth highest rate of pressure per dropback and takes on a Pittsburgh defense among the leaders in many advanced metrics, including No. 10 in pass rush win rate at ESPN.

The offensive playcalling has been a mess for New York — no matter who’s holding the clipboard — and this non-conference clash is also a mismatch in coach prowess, with Mike Tomlin’s defensive acumen far too mighty for Brian Daboll and his flaming seat.

As for Pittsburgh’s playbook under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, it's anchored in the run. But with Wilson under center, the Steelers could feel pressed to pass a little more. That plays into the teeth of the Giants' defense, which has been much stingier through the air than on the ground. 

New York allows the shortest average depth of the target to rival passers and just 5.8 yards per attempt over the last three games, facing far better QB than Wilson — taking on Hurts, Joe Burrow, and Geno Smith.

Short passes and a lot of handoffs from Pittsburgh sets up for an Under result on Monday night.

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