For the Green Bay Packers, a 6-2 finish and postseason win got them over their ex faster than a girl’s trip to Nashville set to a Dua Lipa playlist ever could.
Entering Year 2 of the post-Rodgers era, the Cheeseheads are ahead of schedule. Jordan Love emerges as the next great Green Bay quarterback (at least that’s what his new contract says) and the offense is loaded with promising young talent.
That potential has the Packers among the contenders in the NFC this upcoming season, boasting a win total of 9.5 (Over -138) and installed as point-spread favorites in a dozen games.
Are football bettors dealing with a sharp cheddar or a stinky square of Limburger in 2024? We cut the cheese in my Green Bay Packers 2024 betting preview and NFL picks.
Green Bay Packers odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +1900 |
| Win conference | +800 |
| Win division | +225 |
| Make playoffs | -155 |
| Over 9.5 wins | -135 |
| Under 9.5 wins | +115 |
Best futures bet: Under 9.5 wins (+115)
It’s clear the Green Bay Packers are long removed from their 3-6 start to 2023. While they scored notable wins over the Lions, Chiefs, Chargers, and Cowboys, the other six victories came against bad QB opposition.
Green Bay beat Justin Fields (twice), Derek Carr, Bryce Young, Brett Rypien, and a combo of Nick Mullens/Jaren Hall to just squeak into the playoffs.
Their 2024 path is tougher in terms of strength of schedule, flipping from No. 24 last year to No. 4. The back half of the calendar presents the biggest threat to anyone betting Over 9.5 wins, with the Cheeseheads at home only twice in the final five games.
Green Bay Packers at a glance: Love-hate relationship
The Packers offense was a mystery in 2023, with the unproven Jordan Love and a number of young guns catching rival teams with their pants down. Now those foes have ample tape on Green Bay and won't take the Pack lightly. Mix in the swap to new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley’s 4-3 scheme and I’m not as high on the Pack as most.
What will win bets: Offense
Pick your poison when it comes to the Packers. The receiver ranks don’t have a true No. 1, with six players recording 30 or more receptions last year, making defensive game planning tough. The addition of RB Josh Jacobs provides punch on the ground behind an offensive line with upside after heavy draft investments.
Love ranked No. 1 among NFL QBs in EPA+CPOE from Week 11 to the Divisional Round, including limiting his interceptions. Green Bay’s schedule has them facing defenses ranked 19th or worse in EPA allowed per dropback nine times in 2024.
What will lose bets: Defense
Hafley’s mettle will be tested early and often at the pro level with the former Boston College coach taking on a slew of offensive juggernauts. The Packers are making a switch to the 4-3, blitzing more, and padded their secondary after getting gashed for big gains last season. And as mentioned, that came despite sub-par QB competition.
Philadelphia, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Los Angeles, Houston, Detroit (twice), Chicago (twice), San Francisco, and Miami await — all offenses either already elite or getting better. It’s got me thinking Overs. Green Bay went 10-7 Over/Under last year, including a 7-2 O/U streak in the final nine games.
Green Bay Packers schedule + spot bet: Lots of Lambeau
Green Bay’s strength of schedule varies depending on how you measure it. Win percentage says it’s the fourth-roughest run while win projections place it in the middle of the pack. You could also draw a line between the first nine games and the final eight contests.
The Packers start the year with a neutral-site showdown against Philadelphia in Brazil and then play five of the next eight at home, giving them only three true road games before a Week 10 bye. Green Bay was 5-3 SU/ATS in Lambeau Field last season and is 32-8 SU and 26-14 ATS as a host since Matt LaFleur took over in 2019.
Another late-season surge could be hard to replicate based on the post-bye landscape. The Cheeseheads play the improved Bears twice, host the 49ers, Saints, and Dolphins (on Thanksgiving), and visit Seattle and Minnesota. Three of the final five games are on the road. LaFleur is 24-17 SU and 23-18 ATS away from Wisconsin during his tenure, including a 4-5 SU and ATS mark last year.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Friday, September 6 | vs. Philadelphia |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | vs. Indianapolis |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | @ Tennessee |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | vs. Minnesota |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | @ Los Angeles |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | vs. Arizona |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | vs. Houston |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | @ Jacksonville |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | vs. Detroit |
| 10 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | @ Chicago |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | vs. San Francisco |
| 13 | Thursday, November 28 | vs. Miami |
| 14 | Thursday, December 5 | @ Detroit |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | @ Seattle |
| 16 | Monday, December 23 | vs. New Orleans |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | @ Minnesota |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | vs. Chicago |
Spot bet: Week 8 @ Jacksonville (-1, 46)
One of those rare road trips in the opening months takes Green Bay to Duval County in Week 8. Look-ahead lines have the Packers pegged as 1-point road favorites visiting the Jaguars.
This jump to Jacksonville sits between big-name home games versus Houston in Week 7 and an incredibly important NFC North matchup versus Detroit in Week 9, setting up a potential look-ahead spot for the Pack.
Green Bay was 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS as road chalk in 2023 and funnily enough, despite having Aaron Rodgers under center for most games, LaFleur is 12-7 SU and 8-11 ATS when giving points as the visitor.
All you need is Love
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +1400 |
| To win OPOY | +6000 |
| To lead NFL in passing TD | +1600 |
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +1600 |
| To lead NFL in INT | +2000 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 27.5 passing TD | -110 |
| Under 27.5 passing TD | -110 |
| 30+ passing TD | +160 |
| 35+ passing TD | +700 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 3,900.5 passing yards | +105 |
| Under 3,900.5 passing yards | -125 |
| 4,000+ passing yards | +110 |
| 4,500+ passing yards | +800 |
Best prop: Over 3,900.5 passing yards (+105)
It was fun to see Jordan Love and his “lovable” band of receivers grow up together in 2023. He finished with 4,159 yards passing, an output tempered by those growing pains in the first two months.
If money talks, then Love is worth what the Packers are paying him. Projections call for more than 4,100 passing yards in 2024, which seems modest considering the about-face his completion rate and yards per attempt did from November onward.
What has me buying the Over 3,900.5 yards are the questions around the Green Bay defense and the level of offensive opposition on the board. The Packers could find themselves in several shootouts and that means plenty of passing.
Green Bay Packers trend: Wisconsin winters
Home field advantage isn’t worth what it used to be, except for spots like Green Bay in the home stretch of the season.
The “frozen tundra” of Lambeau Field is a big edge for the Packers when the Wisconsin winter set in, especially if those visitors come from warm or indoor climates (like two of the three late-season foes in 2024).
Under Matt LaFleur, Green Bay is 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS at home in games played between Week 13 and Week 18. That includes a 2-1 SU/ATS mark in 2023.
Green Bay Packers’ late-season home games:
- Week 13 vs. Miami (-3)
- Week 16 vs. New Orleans (-5)
- Week 18 vs. Chicago (-3)
Not intended for use in MA.
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