The Houston Texans were one of the biggest surprises in the NFL last season, and surprises usually pan out to point-spread profits. That wasn’t the case in Houston.
While the Texans’ about-face from three wins in 2022 to 10 in 2023 was as subtle as a Brazilian wax job, it barely made a blip at the sportsbook, with Houston finishing the regular season 9-8 against the spread.
That’s life in the AFC South.
The Texans quickly became the class of the division, despite starting a rookie at quarterback. C.J. Stroud’s immediate effectiveness boosted Houston past a broken Colts team, a Titans squad in transition, and the underperforming Jaguars.
After entering 2023 as a favorite in only three look-ahead lines (and closing as a fave in eight games), the 2024 NFL odds don’t peg the Texans for a tumble. They’re front runners to win the division, -190 to qualify for the playoffs, boast a season win total of 9.5 (Over -150), and lay the points in 11 of their 17 look-ahead spreads.
I break down the biggest up-and-comer in the AFC with my Houston Texans 2024 NFL betting preview, providing NFL picks for this exciting team.
Houston Texans odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +1,600 |
| Win conference | +850 |
| Win division | +105 |
| Make playoffs | -190 |
| Over 9.5 wins | -140 |
| Under 9.5 wins | +120 |
Best futures bet: Win AFC South (+105)
Potential sophomore slumps could wreck this bet — with C.J. Stroud and defensive RoY winner Will Anderson carrying the team — but the AFC South continues to be a bad group and the Houston Texans are the best two-way team of the bunch. Houston is a favorite in 11 games and has a win total of 9.5 with an expensive Over.
Jacksonville is likely its toughest competition, but it didn’t make the same improvements the Texans did this offseason. Look-ahead lines lean toward the Texans in their head-to-head matchups, and Houston has owned the Jaguars — no matter the quality of its team — with a 16-4 SU record in those AFC South matchups since 2014 (12-8 ATS).
Houston Texans at a glance: Sweet and sour BBQ
The Texans’ turnaround in 2023 had as much to do with their own quality as it did with the lack thereof from opponents. The 2024 schedule throws a lot more at Houston, most notably in non-divisional foes. DeMeco Ryans & Co. are good, but they won’t catch anyone sleeping this time around.
What will win bets: Passing attack
Winning with an elite QB on a rookie deal is a proven Super Bowl blueprint. Stroud had a historic rookie season and is hoping to follow in the footsteps of guys like Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Ben Roethlisberger, who captured Super Bowl glory early in their careers.
Houston has pushed all the chips in for 2024. The biggest splash was acquiring a true WR1 in Stefon Diggs, whose big-play ability will open things up for the Texans’ other promising receivers like Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Noah Brown, and TE Dalton Schultz.
I have higher expectations for the pass protection as well, as the offensive line was a game of musical chairs due to injuries in 2023.
What will lose bets: Defense
There are certainly standouts on this Houston defense, but as a group they’re soft — most notable at LB and in the secondary. The Texans ranked 11th in points allowed last year against a slate of bad quarterbacks, taking on the likes of Gardiner Minshew (twice), Will Levis/Ryan Tannehill, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Derek Carr, Bryce Young, Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson, and Joe Flacco.
This season does see plenty of rookie and second-year passers on the schedule (especially early on) but also top-tier arms like Josh Allen, Jordan Love, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson. Houston could find itself in several shootouts if the defense doesn’t step up.
Houston Texans schedule + spot bet: Bet: Soft start. rocky finish
The Texans will pick up where they left off with a cushy entry into 2024. Houston takes on Indianapolis, Chicago, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Buffalo, and New England in the opening six weeks. That’s a potential four games vs. rookie or second-year QBs. Bookies have Houston as a favorite in all six of those outings.
Things start to get scary on Halloween when the Texans visit the Jets on Thursday Night Football in Week 9. From then on, Houston is running uphill, with Detroit, Dallas, Miami, Kansas City, and Baltimore scheduled around AFC South showdowns. Houston is laying points just four times in the final nine games with a late Week 14 bye.
I’m looking at Texans’ totals with a lean to Overs. Last year, Houston finished 6-11 O/U in the regular season and was helped by a slew of pop-gun offenses on the back half of the schedule. The Texans held five of their final eight foes to less than 20 points (2-6 O/U) but won’t catch that break in 2024, especially down the stretch.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | @ Indianapolis |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | vs. Chicago |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | @ Minnesota |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | vs. Jacksonville |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | vs. Buffalo |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | @ New England |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | @ Green Bay |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | vs. Indianapolis |
| 9 | Thursday, October 31 | @ New York (J) |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | vs. Detroit |
| 11 | Monday, November 18 | @ Dallas |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | vs. Tennessee |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | @ Jacksonville |
| 14 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | vs. Miami |
| 16 | Saturday, December 21 | @ Kansas City |
| 17 | Wednesday, December 25 | vs. Baltimore |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | @ Tennessee |
Spot bet: Week 9 at N.Y. Jets (+3. 45)
As mentioned above, Houston meets a Jets crowd riding the Halloween candy sugar high for TNF on October 31. It’s a short turnaround for what will be the Texans’ third road game in four weeks after visiting New England and Green Bay in Weeks 6 and 7.
The Texans didn’t enjoy their last trip to East Rutherford, losing 30-6 to the Wilson-led Jets last December. It was a cold, rain-soaked matchup in which Stroud went down with a concussion that cost him the following game. In Year 1 under Ryans, Houston was 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS as a visitor.
C.J. all day
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +850 |
| To win OPOY | +6,500 |
| To lead NFL in passing TD | +950 |
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +600 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 28.5 passing TD | -110 |
| Under 28.5 passing TD | -110 |
| 30+ passing TD | +120 |
| 35+ passing TD | +500 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 4,150.5 passing yards | -125 |
| Under 4,150.5 passing yards | +105 |
| 4,500+ passing yards | +300 |
Best prop: Over 4,150.5 passing yards (-125)
The Texans invested in Stroud with the addition of Diggs as well as RB Joe Mixon, who is a great pass-catching option to go along with a very strong receiving corps. Year 2 under celebrated offensive coordinator Bobby Slowick will see an uptick in passing plays, especially if the offensive line can avoid injuries.
I’m not as sold on Houston’s defense making leaps and bounds in 2024, and with a number of capable QBs coming their way, the Texans will find themselves in higher-scoring games. That means plenty of passing. We also get Stroud throwing inside the fast track of NRG Stadium in eight games and playing indoors another three times. His passer rating sits at 108.3 indoors compared to 85.1 outdoors.
Player projection for Stroud spit in the face of any sophomore slump, calling for as many as 4,700+ passing yards in 2024.
Houston Texans trend: Divisional road games
Houston handled its business inside the AFC South. DeMeco Ryans went 4-2 SU and ATS inside the division in his first season as head coach in Houston, continuing the franchise’s feistiness against those foes.
The Texans are 10-7-1 SU and 12-6 ATS against the AFC South since 2021, but it’s the work on the road in those divisional games that has really padded pockets. Houston is 8-1 SU and ATS as a divisional visitor the past three seasons.
Houston Texans’ divisional road games
- Week 1 @ Indianapolis (-1.5, 48)
- Week 13 @ Jacksonville (+1, 47)
- Week 18 @ Tennessee (-3, 45)
Not intended for use in MA.
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