We got a “movie trailer” version of the Indianapolis Colts under Anthony Richardson last season.
The rookie quarterback led the Colts to a 2-2 record as the starter before a shoulder injury in Week 5 folded his first year in the pros. In that short glimpse, Richardson proved potent as a dual-threat QB, especially for those of us taking his "touchdown anytime" odds (he scored four TDs).
But like most movie trailers, we didn’t get a complete picture and were left to speculate on the quality of the full film. Is Richardson & Co. a blockbuster for NFL bettors or pretty much every Terminator movie after T2: Judgement Day? Awesome trailers. Crap movies.
Get the popcorn ready. Here’s my Indianapolis Colts 2024 betting preview, complete with NFL picks.
Indianapolis Colts odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +6500 |
| Win conference | +3500 |
| Win division | +310 |
| Make playoffs | +140 |
| Over 8.5 wins | -105 |
| Under 8.5 wins | -125 |
Best futures bet: Second in AFC South (+240)
If the Texans are tops in the AFC South, then the Colts are jockeying with the Jaguars and Titans for second place. Given futures odds and look-ahead lines, it looks like Jacksonville will be Indianapolis’ tightest competition for that silver medal.
The Colts have a higher ceiling — if everyone stays healthy — and a much easier schedule than the Jags, who kind of doom themselves with those London games every year. Second place could come down to the wire and Indy is a favorite in each of its final five games, including hosting Jacksonville in the Week 18 finale.
Indianapolis Colts at a glance: Run for your money
The ceiling is high for the Colts offense (if Richardson stays on the field), anchored in the run. If Indy can ground and pound, it makes passing easier for Richardson’s big arm and an underrated group of receivers. If look-ahead lines hold any truth, the Colts could start slow but finish strong.
What will win bets: Run game
The Colts’ ability to grind it out on the ground will keep them competitive most weeks. Jonathan Taylor is a top-tier running back and has one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in front of him, with all five starters back in 2024. That o-line was the muscle behind head coach Shane Steichen’s rushing attack in Philadelphia and Richardson is Jalen Hurts V2.0, keeping rival defenses guessing with the RPO.
If Indianapolis can run the ball, it will control tempo and clock. That means long extended drives wearing away at opponents and chewing up a ton of time. That protects a suspect defense and limits the amount of possessions rival offenses get.
What will lose bets: Defense
Indianapolis finished 2023 toward the back half of the league in most defensive stats, including DVOA and EPA allowed per play. It was equally as poor against the pass as it was versus the run. Those results came despite the Colts not taking on the toughest slate of scoring attacks, with just five foes ranking Top 15 in EPA per play and six opponents sitting 23rd or worse in that advanced metric.
The defensive line is the Colts' biggest strength and while the stop unit didn’t generate consistent pressure, it did pick up 51 sacks — thanks in part to those weak offensive opponents. This year is tougher sledding for the secondary, facing off against potential high-powered passers in Houston, Green Bay, Chicago, Miami, Buffalo, the N.Y. Jets, and Detroit.
Indianapolis Colts schedule + spot bet: Mixed market
Indianapolis is one of the rare teams in which its season wins total jibes with the look-ahead spreads. Books have the Colts’ win total at 8.5 (Under -125) while listing them as favorites in eight of their 17 regular season games. Thirteen of those spreads are parked inside a field goal, ranging from -2.5 to +2.5.
The start of the schedule sees Indianapolis as a favorite only three times in the first 12 games, taking on contenders like Houston (twice), Green Bay, Chicago, Miami, Buffalo, the N.Y. Jets, and Detroit. However, the Colts could cruise down the stretch as favorites in the final five games, with a bye in Week 14.
Starting on the right foot has been tough for this franchise over the past decade. Indianapolis is 1-9 SU and 1-8-1 ATS in Week 1 since 2014, including last year’s opening loss to Jacksonville. This year, the Texans await in Week 1 with books giving the Colts +1.5 as home underdogs.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | vs. Houston |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | @ Green Bay |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | vs. Chicago |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | vs. Pittsburgh |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | @ Jacksonville |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | @ Tennessee |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | vs. Miami |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | @ Houston |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | @ Minnesota |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | vs. Buffalo |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | @ New York (J) |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | vs. Detroit |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | @ New England |
| 14 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | @ Denver |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | vs. Tennessee |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | @ New York (G) |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | vs. Jacksonville |
Spot bet: Week 9 @ Minnesota Vikings (+1, 46.5)
The Colts run one of the toughest gauntlets in the NFL between Week 7 and Week 12. They take on Miami, Houston, Buffalo, the Jets, and Detroit in that span. The softest opponent on the schedule in that span is Minnesota, but that Week 9 game is a tough schedule spot.
Indianapolis visits the Vikings for its second straight road game and third away tilt in four weeks. What’s more, Minnesota is boasting a mini-bye and plenty of prep time for the Colts after playing on Thursday in Week 8.
Get Rich(ardson) or Die Trying
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +3000 |
| To win CPOY | +600 |
| To lead NFL in passing TD | +8000 |
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +10000 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 18.5 passing TD | +115 |
| Under 18.5 passing TD | -135 |
| 25+ passing TD | +650 |
| 30+ passing TD | +3000 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 3,200.5 passing yards | +110 |
| Under 3,200.5 passing yards | -135 |
| 4,000+ passing yards | +1000 |
Best prop: Over 18.5 touchdown passes (+115)
Richardson's durability is the ultimate question mark for the Colts. He’s a promising dual-threat weapon but lasted only four games in 2023. In that span, he rushed for four touchdowns and threw for three scores. Steichen won’t shy away from QB keepers but does want Richardson thinking pass first, given the Colts invested in targets.
Richardson has some big targets at that, with Michael Pittman (6-foot-4), rookie Adonai Mitchell (6-foot-2), Alec Pierce (6-foot-3), and TEs Kylen Granson (6-foot-3) and Mo Alie-Cox (6-foot-5). Add those jump-ball options alongside Jonathan Taylor’s catch-and-run skills, and Indianapolis is a red-zone threat.
Projections for Richardson are tough to wrangle, due to his limited work as a rookie and any apprehensions around his health. A few forecasts flirt with 20 passing TDs while others are aggressive at 22-plus. FYI: Jalen Hurts had 22 passing touchdowns in his second year under Steichen in Philly in 2022.
Indianapolis Colts trend: Divisional road games
The AFC South is a tough nut to crack as we’ve had three different division winners the past three seasons, and none of them were the Colts. Indianapolis is lukewarm against AFC South rivals, especially on the road.
Since 2020, the Colts are 6-6 SU and just 3-9 ATS in divisional road stops, including 1-2 SU and ATS in Year 1 under Shane Steichen. This season, Indy gets those sticky spots out of the way with all three AFC South travels coming Week 8 or earlier.
Indianapolis Colts’ divisional road games
- Week 5 @ Jacksonville (+2.5)
- Week 6 @ Tennessee (-1.5)
- Week 8 @ Houston (+4, 48)
Not intended for use in MA.
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