The first of two Monday Night Football games features a showdown between top-tier quarterbacks. Trevor Lawrence and the 0-2 Jacksonville Jaguars visit Josh Allen and the 2-0 Buffalo Bills in Week 3.
I dissect the NFL player props for both Lawrence and Allen and give my best NFL picks and Jaguars vs. Bills predictions below.
Trevor Lawrence odds and props
My best bet:
Trevor Lawrence Over 222.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysis:
Trevor Lawrence has had an inconsistent start to the 2024 season, completing only 51% of his passes through two weeks. This is well below his mark of 66% success over the past two seasons, so I’m confident his connections will improve.
The Jaguars are trying to push the ball down the field this season, with Lawrence averaging 10.9 intended air yards per attempt (second highest entering Week 3) and recording nine passing plays of 20+ yards.
Given the sizable spread (Bills -5.5), game script says the Jacksonville Jaguars will be playing from behind and passing more to keep pace. Player projections for Lawrence reflect that possibility, with the bulk of models calling for more than 230 yards through the air.
Forecasts for Week 3 range from 219.7 to a ceiling of 244.5 yards, with my number sitting at almost 235 yards from Lawrence. That's more than enough to get Over the 226.5 yards total, which is actually up from his first two O/Us of the season (220.5 and 222.5).
And while the Buffalo Bills pass defense has looked good against Arizona and Miami — seventh in EPA allowed per dropback — I’m still not convinced this stop unit is as sound as it seems, especially missing CB Taron Johnson and coverage LB Matt Milano.
Josh Allen odds and props
My best bet:
Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-108 at FanDuel)
My analysis:
I’ve been a dog with a bone when it comes to Josh Allen odds this season, specifically his passing touchdown props.
The Bills quarterback tossed two touchdown passes in Week 1 but only had a single TD connection in the blowout of Miami last Thursday, staying below the 1.5-TD total. With his touchdown passes prop set at 1.5 (Over -108) in Week 3, I’m back for more.
The catch with his TD props is his propensity to run it in himself when inside the red zone. Last year, Allen rushed for 15 touchdowns and already has two TDs on the ground this year. So, buyer beware.
The reason for my devotion to this prop this Monday is Buffalo’s receiving corps. The Bills shed speed for size in the offseason, adding some big bodies in the passing game. Allen has some tall targets with multiple options over 6-feet along with a dynamic TE duo of Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox.
Those towers of power look especially big against the Jaguars' secondary. Jacksonville has only one starter taller than 6-foot with multiple first-teamers in the secondary standing under that mark. Add in the Jags’ poor passing defense overall — ranked 21st in EPA allowed per dropback — and I like Allen to throw for two or more tuddies on MNF.
Player projections for Jaguars-Bills have Allen pegged for more than 1.5 passing touchdowns, ranging from 1.52 to 1.8. My number comes in at just shy of 1.7 TD throws.
Not intended for use in MA.
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