Week 3 in the NFL features a pair of games on Monday Night Football, including a showdown between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills.
Although Jacksonville is 0-2 to start the year, my Jaguars vs. Bills predictions aren't expecting the Jags to roll over here. Here are my best free NFL picks for this clash on Monday, September 23.
Jaguars vs Bills MNF prediction
My best bet
Jaguars +5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
This bet really comes down to two things: the long-term trend of 0-2 teams covering the spread as underdogs in Week 3 and the fact that Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence isn't as bad as he's played so far this year.
Lawrence has completed just 51% of his passes for 382 yards — but given how he's played in the past, his weapons, and the quality of his coaching under Doug Pederson — expect positive regression.
Even with T-Law playing like trash, the Jags almost held on for a road victory against the Dolphins in Week 1. While they were shut down by the Browns in ugly weather conditions last week, they should be able to have success against a Buffalo Bills defense that might be a tad overrated.
Jacksonville has enjoyed success on the ground, rushing for 127.5 yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry — the seventh-best number in the league. The Bills surrender 131.5 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry, and now could be even worse with inside linebacker Terrel Bernard sidelined by an injury.
On the other side of the ball, the Bills have also been heavily reliant on their ground game, running the ball 57.3% of the time. However, the Jags' defensive front is far better than the Cardinals and Dolphins, holding opponents to just 3.8 yards per carry.
Josh Allen has been highly efficient in limited pass attempts, but if the Jags plug up the run, he'll be forced to rely on more throws to the outside with a weak crop of wide receivers at his disposal. That will make it tough for Buffalo to cover this number.
Jaguars vs Bills MNF same-game parlay
Jaguars +5.5
Under 45.5
Keon Coleman Over 2.5 receptions
While I expect Lawrence to trend upward, the Over is still a hard sell given Buffalo's heavy-run defense. Additionally, there's a strong chance of rain during the game, and wind could also affect both teams' ability to throw downfield.
The Bills drafted Keon Coleman early in the second round with the notion that he might emerge as their No. 1 receiver. He showed promise in Week 1, hauling in four of five targets for 51 yards, but the rookie failed to record a single reception last week.
Buffalo played with a positive game script against the Dolphins, and since we're betting on a closer game with this SGP, we should see more than 19 pass attempts from Allen here. Expect the Bills QB to look more in Coleman's direction against Jacksonville's subpar boundary corners.
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Jaguars vs Bills odds
Jaguars vs Bills live odds
Jaguars vs Bills opening odds
- Spread: Buffalo -6 (-110) | Buffalo +6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Buffalo +210 | Buffalo -260
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Jaguars vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis
- The lookahead line for this game had the Bills at -3.5, but after their blowout win versus the Dolphins and the Jags' loss to the Browns, the line re-opened at -6.
- Early money came in on the Jags slimming the spread to Bills -4.5 before buyback on Buffalo pushed it back to +5.5 by Sunday.
- Buffalo has the third-best Super Bowl odds (+950), while Allen is tied for the second-best MVP odds (+600) and also boasts the second-highest EPA+CPOE rating.
- Christian Kirk led the Jags with 65.6 receiving yards per game last year, but the WR has only two catches for 29 yards this season.
Jaguars vs Bills betting trend to know
Since 2010, teams that start off the year 0-2 SU are 36-20 ATS (64.3%) when underdogs of more than a field goal in Week 3. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Bills.
Jaguars vs Bills game info
| Location: | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| Date: | Monday, 9-23, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Jaguars vs Bills latest injuries
Jaguars vs Bills weather
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