The Chicago Cubs (12-8) and San Diego Padres (14-4) conclude a three-game series Wednesday afternoon at Petco Park.
Nick Pivetta gets the nod for the home team, while Matthew Boyd takes the mound for the Cubs.
I’ve taken note of Boyd’s platoon splits and am targeting Manny Machado’s player props against him with my Cubs vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, April 16.
Cubs vs Padres prediction
My Cubs vs Padres best bet: Manny Machado Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-110 at DraftKings)
Matthew Boyd has been a great addition for the Chicago Cubs thus far. The 34-year-old has struggled to stay healthy in his career, but tends to be an effective option when on the mound.
That’s been the case this year as he stands with a 1.59 ERA through 17 innings of work. While I’m generally bullish on Boyd, there are a few reasons to be skeptical of his deflated ERA.
The southpaw’s xERA (3.40) and xFIP (4.22) indicate regression despite not being terrible numbers. The difference is mostly because he’s stranded 92.2% of base runners, an unreasonably high number that should settle closer to his 70.9% career average.
The pitch modeling numbers aren’t a fan of his. Boyd has a 96 Stuff+ and a 93 Location+ for an overall Pitching+ of 86. That ranks him 128th out of 141 starting pitchers who have tossed at least 10 innings this season.
The former Oregon State Beaver shuts down lefties but can be beaten by righties, surrendering a career .261 BA, 1.36 WHIP, and 4.74 xFIP.
His three most-utilized pitches against right-handed bats are his four-seamer (42.1%), his change (28.7%), and his slider (23.3%). One San Diego Padres bat that hits all three offerings well is Manny Machado.
The third baseman hits the heater (153 wRC+), change (127 wRC+), and slider (112 wRC+) well, so it’s therefore no surprise that he’s 4-for-10 with a .964 OPS against Boyd in his career.
Machado is off to a hot start, ranking in the 90th percentile in xBA and the 91st percentile in hard-hit rate while posting a 154 wRC+. Books are offering -110 odds that he records 2+ H+R+RBI. He’s done that in eight of his last nine games, and I’ll be betting on him again on Wednesday afternoon.
He’ll hold the platoon advantage over Boyd and could thrive against a struggling Chicago bullpen (4.85 ERA and 1.63 WHIP) once the southpaw exits.
Cubs vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Manny Machado 2+ total bases
Fernando Tatis 2+ total bases
Nick Pivetta 5+ strikeouts
One reason the Padres are off to a 14-4 start is the fantastic play of Fernando Tatis. The slugger is tied for second in the MLB with six home runs and has a superb .354/.427/.646 slash line.
Tatis is averaging 2.7 total bases across his last 10 games and has good results against four-seamers (179 wRC+) and sliders (126 wRC+), two of Boyd’s offerings against righties.
Nick Pivetta takes the mound for San Diego and has an identical ERA as Boyd (1.59) along with strong underlying numbers (3.07 xERA and 2.96 xFIP). He ranks in the 79th percentile in whiff rate and the 75th percentile in K-rate, so I’m betting on him notching 5+ strikeouts.
He faced the Cubs on April 5 and recorded only four punchouts. This time around, he’ll be back at home and will likely last more than three innings (76 pitches) after looking more stretched out in his last outing (88 pitches) while notching 10 strikeouts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Padres odds
Cubs vs Padres live odds
Cubs vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago +104 | San Diego -115
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 | San Diego -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Cubs vs Padres trend
Machado has recorded 2+ H+R+RBI in eight of his last nine games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Padres.
How to watch Cubs vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Wednesday, 4-16-2025 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MARQ, PADRES.tv |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Matthew Boyd (1-1, 1.59 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Nick Pivetta (2-1, 1.59 ERA) |
Cubs vs Padres latest injuries
Cubs vs Padres weather
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