Jaguars vs Bills MNF Prop Bets: Lawrence Finds Kirk Early

Prop bet #1: James Cook Over 17.5 receiving yards

-113 at FanDuel

In their opening defeat to the Dolphins, the Jacksonville Jaguars allowed running backs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert to gain a combined 86 yards receiving on 10 catches. While they defended the running backs better in Week 2 against the Browns, Deshaun Watson only targeted players out of the backfield three times and still completed two passes for nine yards.

Enter James Cook. Through the first two games, he’s been targeted only four times on 23 pass routes, but he’s managed at least 17 yards receiving in each game despite just one target and one catch against the Dolphins last week. Of course, he wasn’t needed in the passing game against Miami given how well the Buffalo Bills were playing.

Cook may find running the ball difficult against the Jaguars, who rank sixth in the NFL in yards allowed per attempt. Thus, I expect the Bills to get him the ball in different ways to keep him involved and utilize his skill set.

I’m also expecting a higher target share on Monday night given how well the Jaguars defend opposing tight ends. They’ve allowed just one catch in each of their first two games, and PFF’s coverage grades have Devin Lloyd and Foye Oluokun ranked among the Top 5 linebackers in the NFL in coverage grade. 

The Jaguars as a whole aren’t defending the pass well, and I’m expecting there to be plenty of targets to go around as Allen is likely to run less than usual. Cook had three catches for 25 yards in their game last season, and he’s had 18+ receiving yards in 10 of the last 14 games in which he’s been targeted at least three times. He’ll hit both floors here.

Prop bet #2: Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

-108 at FanDuel

Speaking of that Jaguar pass defense, Josh Allen’s going to feast. One of the best ways to protect that non-throwing hand is to stay in the pocket and not take chances running, and given early results, there’s not going to be much reason to take off.

Jacksonville has the third-worst pass-rush win rate in the NFL, and their sack rate sits in the Bottom 25% of the league. Outside of Josh Hines-Allen, there’s been little threat when quarterbacks drop back. That leaves their secondary on an island, which is bad news when you run man coverage as much as they do.

The Jaguars are playing man on nearly two-thirds of their defensive snaps — by far the highest rate in the NFL this season. And while their linebackers have held up well, the secondary has not.

Safeties Andre Cisco and Antonio Johnson both rank among the five worst PFF coverage grades in the entire league, and nickel corner Jarrian Jones rates very poorly as well. Only corner Ronald Darby has a rating in the top half of all qualified players at their secondary position.

That’s great news for the Buffalo quarterback. Allen has a QBR of 140.6 this season when operating from a clean pocket, and having such a high rate of man coverage should make it easy for him to find the likes of Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman with regularity.

Allen has only thrown three touchdowns so far this season, but he also didn’t need to throw much last week. He’s facing a team that's solid against the run with a weak secondary, which means I expect some shots downfield. He’s 8-for-13 on attempts of 10+ yards this season, gaining 162 yards and a touchdown in the process. 

I expect Allen to run less and rely on his playmakers more as he protects that hand. He’ll look to repeat his performance of a season ago, where he threw the ball 40 times for a season-high 359 yards and two touchdowns.

Prop bet #3: Christian Kirk Over 3.5 first-quarter receiving yards

-111 at FanDuel

Last season’s meeting saw Christian Kirk targeted eight times, as he hauled in six catches for 78 yards. That included a 30-yard gain to spearhead their second drive, a series that saw them score the opening touchdown of the game.

Kirk would be targeted twice on the drive, and he had two catches for 50 yards before the first quarter ended. It’s one of the reasons I’m backing him to get 4+ yards in the opening frame on Monday night.

Of course, he’s got to catch a pass first. That’s something he’s only done twice through two games despite seven targets. However, head coach Doug Pederson said: “(We are) going to continue to find ways to get Christian the football and he’ll be a big part of the offense.” As such, I expect him to get a couple of looks early on. 

Kirk’s only reception last week went for a loss of a yard, and he was targeted just three times despite running 32 routes in the game, but those targets came downfield for the most part. His average depth of target was 23.3 yards, which is even higher when you think about the one catch for negative yardage. 

It’s worth noting that Kirk had a touchdown catch wiped off the board due to an illegal motion penalty late in the fourth quarter, but Trevor Lawrence pointed out after their loss that he missed some chances to connect with him and also indicated he was looking to rectify that moving forward. 

With Evan Engram out and facing a pass rush that will hound him all night, Lawrence will likely look to his slot receiver for some quick plays early and often. The Bills are also likely to put more focus on rookie Brian Thomas Jr., whose eight targets are second-most on the team and is showing signs of being an explosive playmaker. 

Combine those factors, along with the poor pass-coverage skills of the Buffalo linebackers and the absence of slot corner Taron Johnson, and you’ve got a recipe for an early catch over the middle and an easy cash.