The worst team in the NFL, the Jacksonville Jaguars, heads into New England to face the Patriots, who are chasing their division title. On the face of it, there’s only one winner, but given how unpredictable this season has been, you just never know.
Read on for our NFL picks and predictions for Jacksonville vs. New England on Sunday, January 2.
Jaguars vs Patriots odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
We’ve seen a little line movement since opening. The total has dropped by half a point from 42 to 41.5. The Patriots have also become even stronger favorites, moving from -15 to -15.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Jaguars vs Patriots predictions
- Prediction: Patriots -15.5 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 41.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Lawrence Over 1.5 interceptions (+180)
Predictions made on 12/30/2021 at 6:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Jaguars vs Patriots game info
• Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
• Date: Sunday, January 2, 2022
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Jaguars at Patriots betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Jaguars: Dakota Allen LB (Out), James O'Shaughnessy TE (Out), Shaquill Griffin CB (Out), James Robinson RB (Out), Myles Jack LB (Out), Josh Allen DE (Out), Laviska Shenault WR (Out), DJ Chark WR (Out), Travis Etienne Jr RB (Out).
Patriots: Nelson Agholor WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their past six games as favorites. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Patriots.
Jaguars vs Patriots picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Both the Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots have been led by rookie quarterbacks all season, but it’s the Patriots’ Mac Jones who has seen the most success. The Patriots are tied on wins with the Bills at the top of the AFC East, with both teams at 9-6.
The Jaguars are in a very different place, they sit on a 2-13 record, the worst in the NFL, and currently have the first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t lived up to the expectations of a first overall pick this season, but it’s not all his fault.
Neither QB has had an incredible season in terms of personal performance. Mac Jones has a QBR of 51.7, 14th in the league, compared with Lawrence who has a QBR of 32.6, 28th. Jones has scored double the amount of passing touchdowns, 18 to nine. Lawrence, despite his struggles, only leads the interceptions tally by two, 14 to 12. In terms of passing yards, things are very close too, with Jones having thrown for 3,313 yards compared to Lawrence’s 3,225.
The reality is that in the modern NFL, landing spot is the largest factor determining quarterback success, not ability. Despite Jones’ stock rising in the weeks and months before the draft, it’s ridiculous to say that he was a better prospect than the former Clemson man. The difference is that Jones landed in New England, with one of the greatest coaches of all time and an incredible defense, to ensure he’s always in games. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence landed with Urban Meyer, an offense lacking in talent, especially in the line, and a defense that’s weaker than wet paper.
Despite the fascinating battle between rookie signal callers, the most important aspect of this game, and the one which will decide the winner, are the two defenses. We all know about the Patriots defense, it’s been a core part of their identity under Belichick and this season it’s back to its best. The Pats are ranked second in weighted defensive DVOA in the whole of the NFL, which is a stark contrast to the Jaguars, who are 26th. There’s such a huge gulf in class between the two units and we’re going to see that on Sunday.
For the Jaguars, there really isn’t much motivation to win this game except for the players’ pride. It would probably benefit the organization to lose and maintain that first overall draft pick, but the players won’t be thinking that. It’s unlikely to matter though, the Patriots are a finely-tuned beast and are still in the hunt for their division title. They have to win this game and they’ll do it comfortably. Will they be able to cover the spread though?
I ordinarily recommend betting against big spreads, especially when they’re as wide as the Patriots are this Sunday, huge 15.5 favorites. But in this case, I’m going to have to back the Pats to cover. They managed to hang with the Jets last week, but in the three weeks before that, we’ve seen them battered by the Texans, Titans and Rams. This Patriots offense isn’t a huge-scoring team, they’re more clinical than they are explosive, but they’ll easily be able to win this game by multiple scores.
Prediction: Patriots -15.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
With me picking the Patriots to win by a big number, you’d probably expect me to suggest backing the Over here, but the opposite is true. I think there is compelling evidence that we’ll see the Under land.
In their last three games against what you’d classify as a good defense (inside the Top 12 of weighted defensive DVOA) the Jags have scored a combined 17 points. This offense has struggled time and again when they’ve come up against a good defense. Now they’re facing a top-tier defense with some of the smartest defensive coaching in the NFL. They won’t be putting up numbers here.
The Jaguars have also been consistent trends-wise too. The Under is 6-1 in their last seven games as a road underdog and that will continue on Sunday.
Prediction: Under 41.5 Total Points (-110)
Best bet
With 14 interceptions through the season, it’s already clear that turning the ball over has been an issue for Trevor Lawrence. However, it’s something he’s improved on throughout the season. Lawrence had nine interceptions through the first seven games of the year, including seven in his first three. In the following eight games he’s only had five interceptions and four of those came in one game — that horrific loss to the Titans.
Despite not giving up an interception in the past two weeks, I think it’s likely we see Lawrence turn the ball over again on Sunday. As mentioned earlier, this is a truly elite Patriots defense and will be the best Lawrence has faced all season. You better believe that Belichick has been licking his lips at the opportunity of facing a rookie QB and finding ways to win that ball on defense. If you’re feeling brave then it could also be worth backing the defensive touchdown, but we’re looking at the Pats to pick Lawrence off at least twice in this game.
Pick: Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 interceptions (+180)
