The Jacksonville Jaguars sacked their GM of 7.5 seasons after last week’s 10th straight loss and will look to start fresh in Week 13 against the Minnesota Vikings, who are winners of four of their last five.
The Jags may have lost 10 straight, but they've covered three of their last four. The Mike Glennon-led team opened as 9.5-point road dogs (O/U 52) and have been a touchdown-or-more underdog in six straight games.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Jaguars vs Vikings, December 6 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings Betting Preview
Weather
Sunday’s game will be played indoors at U.S. Bank Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions for other matchups with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Jaguars: Josh Allen DE (Out), Dakota Allen LB (Out), Kamalei Correa LB (Out), Sidney Jones DB (Out).
Vikings: Alexander Mattison RB (Out), Irv Smith Jr. TE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Over is 7-0 in the Vikings’ last seven home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Vikings.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Jaguars turned to their third QB last week, and Mike Glennon came up two points short of a victory against the Browns. But the Jags still covered their third game in the last four. The offense has averaged 6.2 yards per play in that stretch, a full yard better than its season average. Glennon could be in line to start against Minnesota if Gardner Minshew isn’t ready to go after missing four games. Minshew is the better QB and if he does start, we'd expect this line to drop.
The Cleveland defense has a lot of similarities to the Vikings’, as both are riddled with injuries. Therefore, it isn’t ridiculous to expect a Mike Glennon-led offense to put up similar numbers in Week 13.
The Jacksonville strength is in the rushing game and the Vikes have the 19th DVOA rush defense per Football Outsiders. Minnesota's defense gave up big chunks of yards to Carolina’s Mike Davis in Week 12.
The Vikings allowed nearly 400 yards to the Panthers last week, while also having three turnovers and eight penalties. Without Adam Thielen, it was a stagnant offense that struggled against an average defense and could have easily lost that game, as Carolina failed to put the Vikings away in the fourth quarter.
We’re not trusting the Vikings to cover near double-digit points, as even the Steelers were 10-point favs against the Jags in Week 11. There’s no way the Vikings and Steelers should have similar handicaps, regardless of home or away (like that matters in 2020).
PREDICTION: Jacksonville +9.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Over has been a gold mine at U.S. Bank Stadium this year, going a perfect 7-0 on the season. The Over is also 5-0 in the Vikings’ last five games against teams with a losing record. When you’re allowing 30 points a game on your home turf, Over backers are taking notice.
Last week’s game in Minnesota could have hit the Over earlier, as a missed kick and an INT in the red zone made it a sweaty one. If receiver Adam Thielen can come back this week, it will greatly improve a Minnesota passing game that struggled in the first half last week.
Speaking of impact receivers, the Jaguars put up 25 points against the Browns without No. 1 receiver D.J. Chark in the lineup. If Chark can get over the rib injury that cost him last week, it will give this Jacksonville offense a deep threat that could expose a Minnesota secondary that has five DBs out or on the IR.
PREDICTION: Over 52 (-110)
Double Result Prop Pick
The Jags may be covering of late, but they haven’t won since Week 1, hence them firing their GM on Sunday night. In those 10 losses, Jacksonville has trailed going into the half in nine games, including seven straight.
Finding other markets against bad teams can be profitable, as always betting the spread against losing teams is a square play. The Jags’ opponents are 9-2 in hitting the double-result prop, which is a great derivative market when you love a favorite but don’t trust the points.
Getting Thielen back in Week 13 is a big deal for this offense, and we expected QB Kirk Cousins to carry last week’s comeback victory into Sunday’s match, but 9.5 points are still too many.
PREDICTION: Double result: Minnesota Vikings — Minnesota Vikings (-143)
Jaguars vs Vikings Betting Card
- Jacksonville +9.5 (-110)
- Over 52 (-110)
- Double result: Minnesota Vikings — Minnesota Vikings (-143)
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