Well, 2020’s biggest spread is upon us as the last year’s champs, the Kansas City Chiefs, host the winless New York Jets as 19.5-point favorites.
Kansas City opened at 20.5-point favorites across most major books and saw that spread dip to -19.5 around Monday night. The total has crept up to 48.5 after opening at 48. The Jets are paying a whopping +1250 on the moneyline.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Jets vs Chiefs on November 1 (1:00 p.m. ET).
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs betting preview
Weather
Sunday will be sunny with temperatures in the mid-40s at Arrowhead Stadium. Winds will be around 12 mph, with a zero percent chance of precipitation. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Jets: Jamison Crowder WR (Out), Breshad Perriman WR (Out), Sam Ficken K (Out), Bradley McDougald S (Out).
Chiefs: Mitchell Schwartz T (Out), Sammy Watkins WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Chiefs are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Chiefs.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The spread says everything about the Jets. The league’s only winless team is dead last in total yards, passing yards and points scored. Their defense isn’t nearly as bad as the offense, but J-E-T-S still have a bottom-10 defense in total yards allowed, passing yards and points allowed. They’re 1-6 ATS on the year and could have to play catchup against Patrick Mahomes without their two best receivers in Jamison Crowder (groin) and Breshad
Perriman (concussion) on Sunday.
KC cruised to an easy 43-16 win in Denver last week, despite getting outgained by 120 yards and running nearly 20 fewer plays. The Chiefs forced four turnovers last week and have gotten their running game back on track as Clyde Edwards-Helaire has run with purpose in back-to-back weeks and Le’Veon Bell will have another week to absorb the playbook.
The Jets are coming off their best game last week versus an overrated Bills team but Jets +19.5 backers should know that NYJ gained just two first downs in the second half last week (one by penalty) and ran 16 plays for four net yards over five second-half scoreless possessions. If that’s New York’s best, there’s no reason that KC can’t win each half by 10 points or more.
PREDICTION: Kansas City -19.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
This is a tricky one because, on one hand, the Chiefs could drop 40 on a defense that’s averaging 29 points against, but counting on a Jets team that’s scoring a league-worst 1.1 TDs per game is not something we are interested in. The Jets have the league’s worst O-line with a 9.3% adjusted sack rate and could possibly be without their two best chain movers in receivers Crowder and Perriman.
The KC defense may have the 31st DVOA run defense, but its pass defense is a Top-5 unit that held the Bills and Broncos to under 18 points each over the last two weeks. Loaded with potential, the Chiefs’ offense has been hit or miss this year and didn’t complete a single third-down conversion last week in Denver.
New York is 0-3 O/U on totals of 45 or more this year while the Chiefs are 1-2 O/U on totals of 49.5 points or less this year.
PREDICTION: Under 48.5 (-110)
Team Prop Pick
The Chiefs have scored in every quarter over their last two games and on the season, have scored in 25 of 30 quarters. The Bills looked awful last week and still managed to score in three of the four quarters against the Jets. Through 28 quarters this year, New York’s opponents have scored in 25 of those as four of New York’s seven opponents this year have scored in every quarter.
With New York not being able to move the ball, especially with key injuries to its WRs, KC could see a few more possessions on Sunday and could be working with excellent field position all day. It’s hard to find any KC plus-money plays, but scoring in every quarter is one of a few and can be had at +105.
PREDICTION: Kansas City to score in every quarter - Yes (+105)
Jets vs Chiefs betting card
- Kansas City -19.5 (-110)
- Under 48.5 (-110)
- Kansas City to score in every quarter - Yes (+105)
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