The Miami Dolphins will try to keep their playoff hopes alive as they host the slumping New York Jets at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday.
Both Miami and New York come into this game on five-game losing streaks. Each team will be playing a backup quarterback in a critical Week 18 game for the Dolphins.
With two struggling offenses facing off, points will be at a premium in a game Miami needs if it wants a shot at the postseason. We’ll break it all down in our NFL picks and predictions for Jets vs. Dolphins on January 8.
Jets vs Dolphins best odds
Jets vs Dolphins picks and predictions
Over the course of the season, the Miami Dolphins have displayed a dynamic big-play passing offense that put the team in a position to make the playoffs. But that success came primarily with Tua Tagovailoa at the helm.
With Tua and Teddy Bridgewater injured, Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel says that rookie Skylar Thompson will get the start at quarterback. Thompson was the quarterback in the 40-17 loss to the Jets back in October and has thrown just one touchdown against three interceptions on the year overall.
For all their struggles, the Jets are not a team you want to face with a young, unproven quarterback. New York is holding opposing offenses to just 19.1 points per game and has been particularly effective against the pass. Opposing offenses are gaining just 5.9 yards per pass attempt against the Jets, which ranks third in the NFL, and the New York defense is holding offenses to a total average of just 311.6 yards per game.
The Jets have their own issues on offense, with veteran Joe Flacco to get the nod on Sunday. Flacco had one big game against the Browns earlier this season, but otherwise struggled to put up points for the Jets, ultimately throwing for five touchdowns and three interceptions in three September starts.
There’s no reason to think that either of these offenses can do much of anything on Sunday. Oddsmakers and bettors alike know this, and the total on this game now sits at just 37 at most sites. Yet that total is nearly low enough to scare me off the Under. This is a game where the winning team will likely struggle to get to 20+ points, and I’d rather bet against these offenses than on either team.
My best bet: Under 37.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
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Jets vs Dolphins spread analysis
The Dolphins opened as a 4-point favorite in this game. With the news that Thompson will get the start, that number came down slightly, and you can now find Miami -3 or New York +3.5 as a main line, depending on which side you want to back.
Both teams come into this game at 8-8 against the spread this season. As I noted in the introduction, both of these teams have been struggling mightily as of late, however, with each losing five straight heading into Sunday. During that stretch, the Jets are just 1-4 ATS, while the Dolphins are 2-3 ATS.
My biggest issue with betting the spread or the moneyline here is that I have no idea what to expect out of Thompson against a tough Jets defense. While I’m not expecting New York to put up many points, limiting what he’ll have to do to win the game, it’s just as likely that the Jets’ defense shuts down another opponent and makes this a low-scoring, one-possession game. In that case, anything can happen late.
My advice is to stay away from the spread here, though New York +3.5 is an intriguing number if you can get it. This could easily be a field goal game, so that number is very appealing. If you’re willing to take a little risk, it may be even better to grab the Jets on the moneyline, where you can get as much as +150 in what should be a tight game.
Jets vs Dolphins Over/Under analysis
The total for Sunday’s game opened at a fairly low 41.5 points. However, the quarterback changes have driven the Over/Under all the way down to 37.5, with many sites even pushing that down to a flat 37.
The Jets have been playing hard to the Under all year long. With an elite defense keeping New York in the playoff race for much of the season, the Under hit 11 times in 16 games as oddsmakers struggled to adjust.
The Jets haven’t even gotten to a total of 37.5 or higher in any of their past four games. The New York offense is averaging just 12 points per game during that stretch, and yet it has been close in some of these games thanks to a defense that has allowed more than 20 points only twice in its last eight games.
Miami has been playing to higher totals but the Dolphins have done that primarily with Tagovailoa behind center. It’s hard to know what, if anything, the Miami offense can produce with Thompson taking the snaps.
The uncertainty at quarterback is the driving factor in my decision to back the Under here. The Jets' offense hasn’t really done anything all year; Miami hasn’t done anything with Thompson and will do even less against the New York defense. Even at a low total, the Under is the play.
Jets vs Dolphins betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1 in the Dolphins' last seven home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Dolphins.
Jets vs Dolphins game info
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, January 8, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Dolphins -4, 41.5 |
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Jets vs Dolphins weather
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