We’re essentially in “win or go home” mode for the Seattle Seahawks and New York Jets as they collide on Sunday, with both teams sitting at 7-8 and outside the playoff spots.
Geno Smith is the big storyline here for Seattle as he faces the team that drafted him in 2013 (and then ultimately discarded him), but the Seahawks have bigger issues to focus on – namely halting a disappointing slide that’s brought just one win from their last six games.
It’s a similar story for the Jets, who’ve dropped four in a row, capped off by a 19-3 loss to the Jaguars last Thursday. Quarterback Mike White’s expected return is sure to be an upgrade over Zach Wilson and Chris Streveler.
Find out more in our NFL picks and predictions for Jets vs Seahawks ahead of this Sunday, January 1 matchup.
Jets vs Seahawks best odds
Jets vs Seahawks picks and predictions
A Geno Smith revenge game makes for catchy headlines, but his play has slipped just enough during the second half of the season to leave the Seattle Seahawks fighting for their playoff lives despite a 6-3 start.
Smith completed 25 of his 40 passes last weekend against the Chiefs for 215 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. In Week 15, he managed 238 passing yards in the loss to the San Francisco 49ers but was held without a touchdown until late in the fourth quarter.
Despite the New York Jets’ losing run, their defense has held firm, allowing 20, 20, and 19 points across their last three outings. New York ranks third in the NFL in yards allowed per game (309) and is giving up less than 200 passing yards per game (195.5).
No matter what Smith says publicly, he’d surely enjoy putting on a show against a Jets franchise that decided he wasn’t the long-term starter but we should expect a Seattle approach that skews toward backfield touches.
Pete Carroll loves to establish the running game – and I’m counting on that to be especially true in a high-stakes showdown like this. Kenneth Walker III bounced back with 107 yards on the ground in KC, and he should be busy again here with 20-25 carries.
In what could be a low-scoring slugfest, and with key target Tyler Lockett playing through a finger injury, I like these NFL odds for a solid but unspectacular day for Smith up against one of the NFL’s top defensive units.
My best bet: Geno Smith Under 241.5 passing yards (-115)
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Jets vs Seahawks spread analysis
Seattle has won the past four meetings but starts as a narrow underdog here at home. It’s a line that seemingly assumes White will be unaffected by the injured ribs which sidelined him for two games – and that the hosts’ offense is simply stuck in mud after scoring a combined 47 points in its last three outings.
But while the Seahawks are on an ice-cold ATS run, failing to cover the spread in their last six games, I like Seattle to start on the front foot in a playoff-type atmosphere at a raucous Lumen Field. It’s the type of game that Carroll has made a habit of winning, and the home side is 5-1 ATS in the teams’ past six meetings.
The hosts’ offense would get a major boost if Lockett is available after finger surgery, drawing some of the Jets’ attention away from D.K. Metcalf. The rest of the Seattle pass-catching group is light on proven performers.
As for New York, Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore have emerged as a lethal pairing – and White should have time to find them against a limited Seahawks pass rush.
Jets vs Seahawks Over/Under analysis
The Under has been a steady winner this season for the Jets – and in six of their past seven games after a SU loss by more than 14 points.
Frequent changes at the quarterback position have been a factor, but it was also revealing that New York managed just 66 rushing yards against the Jaguars last time out.
There’s a school of thought that the visitors’ offense will flip the switch if White is back at the controls, but it’s a big ask to come into this type of road test and be in sync immediately.
While the Seahawks have trended more towards the Over (which has hit in each of their last five home games against a team with a losing road record), keep in mind that Lockett, Marquise Goodwin, and Noah Fant are all injury question marks heading into Sunday.
Again, this is a game that neither team can afford to lose. I expect that added pressure to lead to plenty of stop-start drives and the sort of cagey battle that ends in a game-winning field goal attempt.
Jets vs Seahawks betting trend to know
New York has played its share of low-scoring games this season, and the Under is 8-2 in the Jets’ last 10 games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Seahawks.
Jets vs Seahawks game info
| Location: | Lumen Field, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Sunday, January 1, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Seahawks -1.5, Over/Under 43 |
Jets vs Seahawks latest injuries
Jets vs Seahawks weather
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