At this point last season, Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love was one of the biggest question marks heading into Week 1.
Fast forward a season — which included a red-hot run in the second half of the schedule and playoff win — and Love looks like the answer to the Cheeseheads’ post-Rodgers prayers. At least they’re paying him as such, signing Love to a four-year $220 million contract.
Love gets to prove that he’s worth all those zeros in Week 1 when the Packers travel to Brazil to play the Philadelphia Eagles on Friday night. I run down the player prop markets for Green Bay’s QB and give my best NFL picks for September 6.
Jordan Love player prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Jordan Love prop pick
My best bet
Over 22.5 completions (-114 at FanDuel)
My analysis
This international showcase has one of the taller totals of Week 1, with the number flirting with 50 points. We have two capable offenses and two defenses under new coordinators, with the stop units expected to go through growing pains in the opening weeks of the schedule.
A potential shootout means plenty of passing from the Green Bay Packers, and why not? They’re not paying Jordan Love to hand the ball off.
Last season, it took some time for this young group to jibe, but business picked up in mid-November and Love connected on more than 22 pass attempts in six of the final eight games of the regular season.
The Packers have a surplus of options in the air attack. While there’s no true WR1, Green Bay boasts the deepest receiver corps in the league and had eight different players lead the team in yards in a single game in 2023. They also added pass-catching running back Josh Jacobs during the offseason.
The 2024 playbook has more faith in Love than last year’s system, which passed at the 19th highest rate. Matt LaFleur will put the ball in Love’s hands more, especially in Week 1 with the rushing attack dinged up and the need for points at a premium.
The Philadelphia Eagles were among the worst pass defenses in 2023 and while Philadelphia is expected to improve, there are a lot of new faces and playbook pages. This stop unit is now under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, whose tricky disguising schemes take time to learn.
Philly gave up the second most completions per game (24.8) and watched rival passers connect on almost 65% of their throws. This secondary is asking veterans to find their old form and pushing rookies to step up in their first taste of the pros.
Love’s player projections sit pretty much right on his completion total of 22.5 O/U versus Philly. Some early prop markets had the Over 22.5 completions priced at +105, with Over money increasing the juice to its current stand.
Given the uptick in Love’s involvement and a possible shootout in Sao Paulo, we could see the Packers QB attempting 37-plus throws in Week 1. Based on that workload, connecting on 23 of those passes shouldn’t be a problem.
Jordan Love same-game parlay
Jordan Love Over 1.5 touchdown passes
Eagles team total Over 26.5
Josh Jacobs anytime touchdown
Love is going to be slinging it with a possible shootout on tap in Week 1. He’s thrown for at least two touchdowns in 10 of his last 11 games, including the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s offense is retooled under new OC Kellen Moore and can exploit a new-look Packers D for 28+ points.
Jacobs is the lone running back not banged up entering Week 1. With A.J. Dillon down, MarShawn Lloyd nursing a tender hamstring, and Emmanuel Wilson limited with a hip injury, Jacobs gets all the carries — and targets — in the red zone.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Barkley/Jacobs to combine for 120+ rush yards (was -180, NOW +115!)
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