How many bets have you lost by the half-point hook? Too many.
As NFL odds tighten with every snap, the difference between winning bets and losing bets is the ability to get the best number for your opinion. That can mean jumping on the opening lines right away or waiting for the market to move later in the week.
That’s where I come in.
Each Sunday night, with odds fresh out of the oven, I suggest spreads and totals to bet now (knowing moves are coming quick) and some lines to bet later (projecting market movement and public perception) with your NFL picks.
Here are the "Bet Now, Bet Later" lines for NFL Week 3 odds.
Week 3 bet now, bet later picks
- Jaguars at Bills (-5): Bet Now
- Giants (+7) at Browns: Bet Later
- Chargers at Steelers (Under 38): Bet Now
- Dolphins at Seahawks (Over 41.5): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-5): Bet Now
The Buffalo Bills get a mini-bye for this Monday Night Football outing after stomping Miami on Thursday. Buffalo looked great on both sides of the ball and now faces a Jacksonville Jaguars team desperate for a win after starting 0-2 in close contests.
Bookies opened the Bills as short as -5 but other operators are hanging the key number of six on the home side. Given the rest advantage and the public sentiment of the Bills improving, I could see this closing at -6.5 or even -7.
Jacksonville has scored a collective 30 points through the first two weeks and is leaving money on the table, going 3-for-7 inside the red zone. Trevor Lawrence is a combined 26-for-51 passing in those two contests (51%), in part due to bad pass protection that’s allowed seven sacks on the QB.
If Josh Allen & Co. can keep putting up points — having scored 65 total in two games — the Jags offense will have a tough time keeping up. Bet the Bills below the key number now.
Best odds to bet Bills -5 right now
New York Giants (+7) at Cleveland Browns: Bet Later
If you’re going to bet on the New York Giants, you better have a butt-ton of points on your side. New York opened between +6.5 and +7 at the Cleveland Browns in Week 3, but it’s going to take more than that to convince me to back Big Blue.
The Giants’ 0-2 sputter to start 2024 has head coach Brian Daboll on the hot seat, especially after he "Gronk spiked" his headset after losing a squeaker to Washington this weekend. New York looks lost, which could run this spread to +7.5.
Cleveland backed into a win at Jacksonville on Sunday, getting outgained by the Jaguars and averaging just 4.6 yards per play along with 13 penalties for 100 yards against. The Browns scored only one touchdown (a Deshaun Watson run) on their lone trip inside the red zone and settled for three field goals (and a safety).
The Browns defense is good but the offense just doesn’t have what it takes to cover this many points — even against the woeful G-Men. You could take New York +7 now, and then bet it again at +7.5 later in the week.
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (Under 38): Bet Now
This total is already short, considering the Pittsburgh Steelers’ style of play.
Pittsburgh is once again locking up opposing offenses with one of the stingiest stop units in the land. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers have one touchdown in the first two games of the season and are averaging a little over four yards per play.
The Los Angeles Chargers, who are at sleep-away camp on the East Coast this week, came out of Carolina with 26 points in their Week 2 win. The Bolts face a much feistier foe in Pittsburgh. Greg Roman’s attack is anchored in the run and the passing game could be an afterthought if QB Justin Herbert misses time with a leg injury sustained Sunday.
The market is already dropping this total in the hours after opening, with some books down to 37.5 and other books pumping the brakes due to Herbert’s status. If he is ruled out, this number will plummet but even if he’s in, I don’t see much action for the scorekeepers at Acrisure Stadium. Take the Under now.
Best odds to bet Under 38 right now
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (Over 41.5) Bet Later
How much is Tua Tagovailoa worth to the total? According to the look-ahead lines, which had this Over/Under at 49 points in the summer, about a touchdown.
The Miami Dolphins turn to backup QB Skylar Thompson, who has plenty of starting experience going back to 2022 when Tua was also out with concussions. He’s not setting the world on fire by any means, but he’s better than most QB2 options out there and knows the offense well.
The Dolphins get the mini-bye to handle the loss of their franchise player, but that also gives Mike McDaniel extra time to scheme and get running backs Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane healthy. They’re going to need them.
The Seattle Seahawks are a quiet 2-0 and could once again be without RB Kenneth Walker III, who sat out Week 2 with an oblique injury. If he misses more practice early in the week, this total could start ticking down.
However, the Seahawks’ passing game picked up the slack, with Geno Smith throwing for 321 yards versus a solid Patriots defense and getting a breakout effort from WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Week 2. Miami’s defense got lit up by Buffalo’s passing game on Thursday and isn’t putting pressure on rival QBs. Geno can make miracles in a clean pocket.
This number sits as low as 41.5 points on Sunday night and overreaction to the Tua injury could slim this O/U later in the week. Hold up if you’re interested in the Over.
Not intended for use in MA.
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