Wildcard Sunday kicks off at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY, when the Denver Broncos face off with the Buffalo Bills.
It was a possible MVP season for Josh Allen odds, and I think the Bills quarterback will be able to utilize his legs to get his team a victory. Find out more in my latest NFL picks for Sunday, January 12.
Josh Allen player prop picks
- Best bet
Josh Allen Over 41.5 rushing yards
(-125 at BetMGM) - SGP Pick
Josh Allen Over 41.5 rushing yards
Bo Nix Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Khalil Shakir Under 5.5 receptions
(+575 at BetMGM)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Josh Allen prop pick
My best bet
Josh Allen Over 41.5 rushing yards (-125 at BetMGM)
My analysis
When it comes time for the playoffs, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen loves taking off when the opportunity presents itself. Last year, he rushed for over 70 yards in each of his two playoff games. He has run for at least 50 yards in seven of his 10 career playoff games.
The Denver Broncos love to bring pressure, blitzing on 35.7% of defensive snaps. That ranks fourth in the NFL. They also have the third-highest pressure rate at 37.4%. However, Allen can avoid pressure better than almost anyone in the league.
Allen scrambled at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL this season at 19.4% of his dropbacks. He also gained 383 rushing yards on his scrambles, which is fifth highest in the league. He tallied another 148 yards on designed runs this season.
The Broncos have not faced too many rushing quarterbacks this season but have still been susceptible to quarterback scrambles. With the likely leading game script for the Bills, I would expect Allen to look to avoid pressure by running the ball rather than throwing a quick pass that could lead to a turnover.
Josh Allen same-game parlay
Josh Allen Over 41.5 rushing yards
Bo Nix Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Khalil Shakir Under 5.5 receptions
To combine with our best bet, I like to look at a leading game script for Allen and the Bills. To start, I really like Bo Nix to have two or more passing touchdowns.
Nix threw eight touchdowns while on the run this season. The Bills allowed 10 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks on the run this season, which is tied with the Cincinnati Bengals for the most in the NFL.
Finally, Khalil Shakir typically will run his routes from the slot, as aligned in the slot on 60.7% of his snaps and 63.3% of his routes. JaQuan McMillian aligned as a slot corner on a team-high 73.7% of his defensive snaps.
He led the NFL with eight passes defensed and two interceptions without allowing a single touchdown while lined up in the slot.
I do not see Shakir getting a heavy target volume, given the matchup and the likely game script.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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