The game of the Divisional Round takes place this Sunday with the Baltimore Ravens traveling to Highmark Stadium to face the Buffalo Bills. All eyes are on both quarterbacks, who are both battling for the NFL MVP trophy.
However, our eyes will be on the Josh Allen odds, and we’ll look at how he’ll try to beat a great Ravens team.
We’ve taken a deep dive into the MVP frontrunner, and here are our best Josh Allen NFL picks this Sunday.
Josh Allen player prop picks
- Best bet
Josh Allen Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts
(-128 at BetMGM) - SGP pick
Josh Allen Over 44.5 Rushing Yards
Khalil Shakir Under 5.5 Receptions
Keon Coleman Anytime Touchdown
(+825 at BetMGM)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Josh Allen prop pick
My best bet
Josh Allen Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts (-128 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This Sunday’s Divisional Round game between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills has a real game-of-the-season potential. With the narrative around the MVP race circling and the important business of winning playoff games, it has all the ingredients to be special.
The question is, what are we going to see from the Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen and how best to wager on him?
While the passing angle is always an interesting one, it’s Allen’s ability with his legs that leaps out here.
However, with the Ravens allowing the fewest rushing yards in the regular season, an average of 80.1, and all but stopping the Steelers on the ground last week, we’re going to look at rushing attempts for Allen instead of yards.
The line for rushing attempts stands at 8.5 for this game, which immediately feels high given that it’s a number that he’s covered just four times all season.
However, when you really look into past performances, as well as potential game scripts, it makes more sense.
A look back at last season shows he covered in five times, with the first of those being Week Nine, a narrow defeat to the Eagles, then a narrow win over the Chiefs, then covering it a further two times before 12 carries against the Chiefs in their AFC Conference Championship game defeat.
Again, a pattern emerges of Allen trusting his ability to move the chains with his legs when in big games.
Last week, Allen fell just short with eight carries against the Broncos, but the chances increase further with Sunday’s matchup looking like a very close game.
This Ravens’ defense is one of the best in the NFL, ranked sixth in DVOA. If Allen gets frustrated, which is very possible given their quality and the forecasted snow, we’ll see him look to extend plays with his feet.
Josh Allen same-game parlay
Josh Allen Over 44.5 Rushing Yards
Khalil Shakir Under 5.5 Receptions
Keon Coleman Anytime Touchdown
Our best bet of Josh Allen Over 8.5 rushing attempts isn’t available as part of the Same-Game Parlay, so we’re replacing that with Allen to rush for Over 44.5 yards for the same reasons.
We’re then parlaying that with Khalil Shakir to have Under 5.5 receptions. Shakir has blossomed as part of this team this season and comes into this after catching all six passes last week.
However, he’s had Over 5.5 receptions just twice in the past six games, despite having at least six targets each week. Given that he’s likely going to battle with Marlon Humphrey all Sunday, it’s going to be a long and difficult day, so we’re taking the Under.
Then, to wrap up this SGP, we’re backing Keon Coleman to score a touchdown. The rookie has just four touchdowns on the season, with his last being in Week 17 against the Jets.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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