Justin Fields Odds and MNF Props: Chicago's QB1 Spends Monday on the Run

There’s a lot on the line in tonight's NFC North matchup.

The Minnesota Vikings — whom the NFL odds have as 3-point home favorites — are fighting for a playoff spot and are currently the sixth seed in the NFC. Meanwhile, the visiting Chicago Bears are in position to have two Top-5 picks, and while they don’t want to lose, it could help them in the long run.

Fortunately for Chicagoans who'd rather enjoy the fruits of victory, quarterback Justin Fields is still trying to play his way into being the guy in the Windy City and is coming off one of the best performances of his career against the Lions.

You can see how I’m betting the Justin Fields odds as we dive into the MNF odds in my free NFL picks below.

For more Monday Night Football coverage, check our Bears vs. Vikings picks and the best MNF prop picks.

Justin Fields MNF prop picks

• Over 52.5 rushing yards
• Over 52.5 rushing yards/Anytime TD/Under 198.5 passing yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Justin Fields MNF prop pick

Over 52.5 rushing yards (-110)

In what many believe is a “prove it” year for Justin Fields, especially with the Chicago Bears draft capital, the former first-round pick has been on a wild ride this season.

Out of the gate, Chicago’s offense under Luke Getsy was one of the worst in all of football and then all of a sudden in Week 4 and 5, it went from unwatchable to unstoppable behind the arm and athleticism of Fields. 

Of course, he then got hurt against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 6 and had Bears fans down so bad they thought Tyson Bagent might be the better option. Finally, he was back in Week 11 and did everything he could to lead an upset of Lions that ultimately fell short.

Now on Monday night, he can get some revenge on the Vikings and prove in primetime he has the talent to start in this league. The only thing working against him though is how brilliant Minnesota’s defense has been under Brian Flores.

Flores has the Vikings 10th in EPA per play, 14th in EPA per dropback, and sixth in EPA per rush. They’ve been even better as of late, jumping up to fourth in EPA per play, sixth in EPA per dropback, and fifth in EPA per rush since Week 6. That coincides with the team going 5-1 over that stretch.

Given the Vikings' defensive dominance and the Bears' lackluster passing game, relying on the quarterback's legs seems like a much safer move.

The Vikings haven’t dealt with many true runners at quarterback this season, but have still allowed the 12th-most rushing yards to QBs. Prior to getting hurt against them, Fields was on pace for a big rushing day with eight carries for 46 yards before leaving with over 10 minutes to go in the third quarter.

Upon his return last week, Getsy wasn’t shy about utilizing the mobility that allowed him to run for the second-most yards by a quarterback in NFL history last season.

Fields was used multiple times on designed runs on top of his own scrambles and tied his career high with 18 carries while rushing for his fourth-highest total in a game with 104 yards.

While his rushing totals are slightly down this season after the offense started the year with no identity, he’s still run for at least 53 yards in three of seven starts and would have in a fourth if not for the injury against the Vikings. 

Fields has the ninth-most added value as a runner among QBs in the NFL, per QBR, and among players with at least 50 carries this season, Fields is fourth in average per carry. He also has the fourth most rushing yards among quarterbacks.

For his career, the former 11th overall pick is averaging 56 rushing yards per game and has run for at least 53 yards in a game 14 times. With his 5.2 average per carry this season, he’ll theoretically need just 11 carries to hit the Over.

Prop: Over 52.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

Justin Fields MNF same-game parlay

Justin Fields Over 52.5 rushing yards

Justin Fields anytime TD

Justin Fields Under 198.5 passing yards

30% boost available

+650 +845 at bet365

For the Bears to win this game, Fields’ legs will be key, just like they were in the near upset of the Lions. Chicago is going to want to create mismatches with their young quarterback’s legs and that should set him up to plunge into the end zone.

While he’s only got one rushing touchdown this season, he’s coming off a year in which he had eight and playing a Vikings defense that’s tied for the ninth most rushing touchdowns allowed to quarterbacks.

They’ve only allowed three, but when they played a similar athlete at quarterback in Jalen Hurts, and a team that leans on the run the way Chicago is going to want to, he scored twice.

Led by Danielle Hunter, the Vikings have one of the most aggressive fronts in football with Flores penchant for blitzing. To help freeze the edge rushers, Getsy is going to want to lean on zone reads to force them to read keys and make decisions. 

That should give Fields’ rush rate a boost in this, as should the fact the Vikings are without starting linebacker Jordan Hicks and leaning on undrafted rookie Ivan Pace Jr. to step up in his absence.

With the way the Vikings secondary has played this season, it should help persuade the Bears to go to Fields' legs as much as his arm.

Despite some eye-popping passing performances throughout his career, and his two best coming this season, Fields is averaging just 195.7 passing yards per game this year and is coming off a season where he was at just 149.5 per game.

Despite Flores blitzing like a mad scientist, this Vikings secondary has held up with free agent acquisition Byron Murphy stepping up, rookie Mekhi Blackmon really looking good in recent weeks, and the safety trio of Harrison Smith, Cam Bynum, and Josh Metellus being one of the best in football.

Dealing with the pressure Flores will bring, Minnesota’s secondary taking it up a notch lately, and an inconsistent pass-catching corps — outside of DJ Moore — it’s hard to fathom Fields throwing for Over 198.5 yards for the 11th time in 33 starts.

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