Justin Herbert Odds and SNF Props: Chargers Quarterback Conquers Chicago's Shoddy Stoppers

Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers have not had the season that many envisioned, but the Chicago Bears offer a defense that can help the Bolts get back in business on Sunday Night Football, as our NFL betting picks explain.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Oct 29, 2023 • 17:50 ET • 4 min read
Justin Herbert Los Angeles Chargers NFL
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The Week 8 edition of Sunday Night Football sees two teams with two wins facing off as the Bears travel to Los Angeles to face the Chargers. Justin Fields might be sidelined but Justin Herbert isn’t, and we’re going to check out the best props based around the former Oregon signal caller.

For my money, Herbert is one of the best QBs in the league with a skillset not many can match. I’ve taken a long look at the Justin Herbert odds at various sportsbooks to find the very best ways for you to get involved with the Chargers QB in the SNF odds. Check out my free NFL picks below.

Also, be sure to check out our Chargers vs. Bears preview and SNF prop picks

Justin Herbert SNF prop picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Justin Herbert SNF prop pick

Over 266.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Heading into this season, a lot of people thought we were going to see Justin Herbert elevate himself from a Top 10 quarterback to somebody at the very top tier. With the Chargers at 2-4, we’ll probably need to throw away our Justin Herbert MVP tickets. But in truth, the former Oregon man doesn’t deserve much criticism with the Chargers’ faults not really lying with him.

He’s thrown 10 touchdown passes in six games and has accumulated 1,592 yards. Aside from one game against the Raiders in which he attempted just 24 passes, Herbert has put up relatively big yardage in every game.

His passing yards line for the clash with the Bears sits at 266.5. It’s a number that he’s hit just twice in six games, and has yet to hit when playing at home. However, his average per game sits just below this total at 265.3 yards. 

We know that Herbert has a great arm, and I think we’re likely to see him put up some good numbers against a Bears’ defense that ranks 29th against the pass. They’ve given up 257.1 yards per game. The Bears simply aren’t good against the pass, and with Herbert’s abilities, we should see the Chargers rely on No. 10 to keep moving the chains.

We’ve seen enough of the Bears this season to know that a top quarterback should be able to have a good day against their defense, so let’s take the Over on Herbert’s passing yard line.

Prop: Justin Herbert Over 266.5 Passing Yards (-110 at bet365)

Justin Herbert SNF same-game parlay

Justin Herbert Over 266.5 Passing Yards

Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing TDs

Justin Herbert Over 0.5 INTs

I’ve got a Justin Herbert themed same-game parlay for you ahead of Sunday Night Football and it comes in at +475.

First up, we will take the best bet for this game, which is for Herbert to have success when throwing the football. His line sits at 266.5 passing yards, and we’re taking the Over against a defense ranked 29th in the league against the pass.

Next, we’re going to back Herbert to notch Over 1.5 passing touchdowns. While Herbert only has 10 touchdowns in six games, an average slightly under the two touchdowns that we’ll need, he’s facing a terrible Chicago defense. The Bears have given up an average of two passing touchdowns per game to QBs this season, and it’s a fair assumption that a quarterback of Herbert’s ability will be able to match that.

For our last leg, we’re going to add Herbert to throw an INT. In his first three years in the league, he threw a total of 35 interceptions. Through six games this year, he’s currently at four.

What’s more interesting is that none of those INTs came in the first three games, when he had the option of Mike Williams available to him. The team has struggled to replace Williams, with Quentin Johnson managing two receptions for 38 yards in those three games. I think the lack of a big-bodied wide-out with Williams’ skillset is hurting Herbert and increases the chances of him tossing another interception here.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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