When it comes to the Kansas City Chiefs, perhaps the biggest thing standing in the way of a third straight Super Bowl title is themselves.
The offseason has been a dog and pony show for the defending champs, featuring multiple legal issues with various players (headlined by Rashee Rice), Harrison Butker’s controversial commencement speech, and most recently a season-threatening shoulder injury to key addition Hollywood Brown.
None of this has stopped sportsbooks from installing Kansas City as the favorite to win Super Bowl LIX, nor has it put a dent in its win total (11.5 Over -118) or look-ahead lines, which peg the Chiefs as average 5-point favorites in 15 of their 17 games.
That’s the thing about betting on the Super Bowl champ. You’re going to pay the title tax.
Andy Reid & Co. did manage to go 9-7-1 ATS in the regular season last year, but are a collective 30-35-2 ATS since 2020 — just 26-33-2 ATS as favorites (44%) — despite boasting an average margin of more than six points in that span.
Those KC spreads open big and get even bigger, as the public piles on and oddsmakers inflate the week-to-week lines. With the futures value slim and the spreads soaring, is it smarter to find spots to bet against the Chiefs in 2024?
That’s an uncomfortable place to be, but we might be there in my 2024 Kansas City Chiefs betting preview and NFL picks.
Kansas City Chiefs odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +500 |
| Win conference | +300 |
| Win division | -230 |
| Make playoffs | -600 |
| Over 11.5 wins | -115 |
| Under 11.5 wins | -105 |
Best futures bet: Over 11.5 wins (-115)
Hey, just because I’m skittish when it comes to laying the lumber with the Kansas City Chiefs every Sunday doesn’t mean this team isn’t going to win games. Looking at the additions and returning talent, this could be the best two-way team in the NFL. Add in Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo, and a savvy staff of assistants... you also have the most well-coached team in the league.
The AFC West isn’t pushing back much in 2024, which could bank at least five wins for the Chiefs. The non-conference sked serves up the NFC South (plus a rematch with the 49ers) and it also helps that most of the Chiefs’ toughest foes come to Arrowhead, with Baltimore, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, and Houston as visitors.
Kansas City Chiefs at a glance: Postseason plans
Kansas City is chasing history in 2024, which means getting back to the playoffs intact. With another AFC West title destined for the rafters, the Chiefs may feel little urgency to go full blast in the regular season, especially after playing 13 extra postseason games since 2020. A slow start could bring an opportunity to buyback discounted futures on KC.
What will win bets: Defense
I initially had Patrick Mahomes in this spot but deleted it. While the star power of this passing attack is almost unrivaled, the Kansas City defense is the X-factor when it comes to covering spreads. The Chiefs held opponents to less than 20 points in nine games in 2023, and the team covered in all but one of those outings (27-17 win as 10.5-point faves at New England).
Although the stop unit lost some standouts, there are up-and-coming contributors at all three levels, most notably in the secondary. If Mahomes & Co. can up their ho-hum output of 2023 (finished 11th in EPA per play), then it forces foes to go pass-heavy and opens the floodgates for Spagnuolo’s pass rush, which ranked second in sacks and pressure rate in 2023.
What will lose bets: Big spreads
It’s a terrible trident of betting badness facing Kansas City before the season even starts. One, the offseason was a shit show. Two, the Chiefs could be playing to survive. And three, most importantly, they’re facing piles of points almost every week.
As mentioned, Kansas City is giving on average more than five points as a favorite and faces six spreads of -6.5 or higher in 2024. Since 2020, Reid’s guys are just 16-19-2 ATS when laying -6.5 or higher.
I’ll give the same advice I did in this spot last year: If you are looking to bet on the Chiefs, jump on them early in the week before the bulk of public players tack on extra points come kickoff.
Kansas City Chiefs schedule + spot bet: Slippery start
A Super Bowl championship comes with a rather large target on your back, and the Chiefs will get the best of every opponent, including fellow AFC powers Baltimore and Cincinnati. The spreads tell the tale of a tougher start, with Kansas City laying more than -3.5 points only once (-8 vs. NOLA in Week 5) during this stretch.
The Week 7 trip to San Francisco (+1) comes after the bye (Reid 21-4 SU/15-10 ATS off a bye) and is one of only two look-ahead lines in which KC is catching points. So, you know what to do.
The Chiefs are 8-3-1 ATS as regular season underdogs since Mahomes took over as QB1 in 2018, and 12-3-1 ATS as pups in all games (postseason included) in that span.
The home stretch of the season could prove problematic for Kansas City, which travels for three of the final four outings of 2024, including a weirdo Wednesday game at Pittsburgh on Christmas Day in Week 17. Depending on the Chiefs' place in the standings, the starters could sit the closing contests.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thursday, September 5 | vs. Baltimore |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | vs. Cincinnati |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | @ Atlanta |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | @ Los Angeles (C) |
| 5 | Monday, October 7 | vs. New Orleans |
| 6 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | @ San Francisco |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | @ Las Vegas |
| 9 | Monday, November 4 | vs. Tampa Bay |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | vs. Denver |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | @ Buffalo |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | @ Carolina |
| 13 | Friday, November 29 | vs. Las Vegas |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | vs. Los Angeles (C) |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | @ Cleveland |
| 16 | Saturday, December 21 | vs. Houston |
| 17 | Wednesday, December 25 | @ Pittsburgh |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | @ Denver |
Spot bet: Week 13 vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-7.5, 45.5)
It’s “Friday Night Lights” in Arrowhead during the Thanksgiving Weekend, with the Raiders coming to town.
While this is a bit of a revenge spot for the Chiefs, who lost to Vegas at home last Xmas, it’s a very challenging schedule spot. Kansas City will play its fifth game in a 25-day window in Week 13, thanks to a Monday game versus Tampa Bay in Week 9 and this funky Friday timeslot.
The Chiefs are 7.5-point favorites for this AFC West rivalry and boast a 9-13 ATS mark as a divisional favorite since 2020, including 4-7 ATS as home chalk against AFC West foes.
Mild on Mahomes
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +475 |
| To win OPOY | +4,500 |
| To lead NFL in passing TD | +650 |
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +500 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 34.5 passing TD | +130 |
| Under 34.5 passing TD | -150 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 4,350.5 passing yards | +105 |
| Under 4,350.5 passing yards | -130 |
| 4,500+ passing yards | +135 |
Best prop: Under 34.5 touchdown passes (-150)
If there’s one glitch in the Matrix when it comes to the Chiefs’ offense, it’s scoring inside the red zone. Last season, Kansas City was 19th in terms of TD rate inside the 20-yard line. Mahomes was Mahomes, but the run game couldn’t break through, and opponents started to adjust.
The offensive line is very strong on the interior and if it can stay healthy, it’s among the better run-blocking groups in the NFL. That could create a better balance in terms of play calling, taking the ball out of Mahomes hands — especially as they protect leads in the second half.
Player projections for Mahomes are fantastic but not quite on par with the expectations of oddsmakers, who have the KC QB forecasted for 34.5 touchdown throws. He’s bouncing between 28 and 32.5 projected touchdowns for 2024, which comes in below this prop total.
Kansas City Chiefs trend: Home Unders
Scorekeeper at Arrowhead Stadium has become one of the easiest jobs in the NFL the past two seasons, with the Chiefs' defense locking down visitors and making a bundle for Under bettors.
Over the past two years, Kansas City is 3-16 Over/Under at home in both regular season and postseason games — an 84% Under wonder. That includes a 1-8 O/U count in 2023.
The Chiefs have limited foes to 21 points or less in 15 of those 19 home stands, with 12 of those closing totals coming in above the key number of 47 points. The 2024 look-ahead lines have KC’s average home total number parked just shy of 46.5 O/U.
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