Lamar Jackson Odds and Divisional Round Props: Lamar Lays it All On the Line

The Baltimore Ravens will begin their playoff run on Saturday afternoon, and Lamar Jackson odds will play a major role in determining whether they can get past the Houston Texans and into the AFC Championship Game next weekend.

The Ravens are big favorites in the Divisional Round odds over the Texans (11-7) after finishing the regular season as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Baltimore has historically wilted in the playoffs, but with Jackson playing to MVP form this year, the NFL odds see the Ravens as one of the top picks to win the Super Bowl. We’ll take a look at what to expect from Jackson on Saturday in my NFL player prop picks for the Baltimore quarterback.

Want to see more analysis and coverage of this matchup before finalizing your NFL picks for Saturday? Take a look at Covers’ Texans vs. Ravens betting picks, as well as our Texans vs. Ravens prop picks for this postseason showdown.

Lamar Jackson Divisional Round prop picks

• Over 1.5 pass TDs
• Over 1.5 pass TDs/Over 227.5 pass yds/Ravens -9.5

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Lamar Jackson Divisional Round prop pick

Over 1.5 passing TDs (+114)

After two years of relatively modest numbers, Lamar Jackson put together his best season since his unforgettable 2019 campaign, and a second NFL MVP trophy is his likely reward. Jackson threw for 3,678 yards and 24 touchdowns against just seven interceptions this year, while also running for 821 yards and five scores. At 27, Jackson remains one of the most unstoppable dual-threat weapons in the NFL.

If there were any doubts about where Jackson stood this year, he separated himself from the pack down the stretch. Over his last four games, the Baltimore Ravens signal caller threw for 11 touchdowns with just two picks. That came against three playoff teams (and the nearly postseason-bound Jacksonville Jaguars), highlighted by an impressive two-touchdown performance on the road against the San Francisco 49ers in a potential Super Bowl preview.

Jackson and the Ravens get a favorable matchup against a Houston Texans team that’s no more than adequate defensively. While the Texans have been solid at shutting down the rushing game, allowing just 3.5 yards per rush this season, teams have been able to throw against them, completing 68.1% of passes for 10.2 yards per attempt.

The knock on Jackson — and the Ravens as a whole — has been his performance in the postseason. Jackson is just 1-3 in the playoffs, throwing for three touchdowns and five interceptions. Across the country, football fans are waiting for another playoff collapse for Baltimore, with Jackson at the center of that talk.

But I’m not interested in four games, all of which came when Jackson was 24 years old or younger. This Baltimore team has too much talent around him, and Jackson has shown his mettle down the stretch. I expect big things from the Ravens on Saturday as they make a statement against a young Texans team that isn’t quite ready to deal with Jackson just yet.

Prop: Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+114 at FanDuel)

Lamar Jackson Divisional Round same-game parlay

Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing TDs

Lamar Jackson Over 227.5 passing yards

Ravens -9.5

+369 at FanDuel

Jackson cleared 227.5 yards in the air in three of his last four games down the stretch, and as we’ve already established, the Houston defense hasn’t done a great job of containing the passing game this year.

That’s going to spell trouble for the Texans. I do not doubt that Baltimore will score points in bunches, as they’ve scored 31 points or more in eight of their last 10 games. At a glance, it might look like Houston can compete in a shootout like this. After all, the Texans were able to put up 45 points against the Cleveland Browns last weekend in their crushing Wild Card win.

But this Baltimore defense is another test entirely for C.J. Stroud & Co. The Ravens led the NFL on yards allowed per attempt (5.1), yards per completion (8.5), and opposing quarterback rating (71.6). The bottom line number tells it all, as Baltimore’s opponents could muster just 16.5 points per game on the season.

I was caught by surprise by Stroud and the Texans last week. But on Saturday, they’ll have to go on the road to play the best defensive team in football while also struggling to contend with Jackson and a balanced Ravens attack. While a 9.5-point spread may seem like a huge number at this point in the postseason, I still like Baltimore to cover that number comfortably.

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