If you want to make a name as a new head coach, win games. If you want to make a name as a new head coach in Las Vegas, cover the spread.
Antonio Pierce did just that after taking over coaching duties for the Las Vegas Raiders midway through last season, energizing the Silver and Black to a 5-4 SU finish and, more importantly, a 7-1-1 ATS record in those closing nine games.
Pierce was hired full-time and that ATS success could continue if he can keep Las Vegas playing above the oddsmakers’ expectations, which are pretty low for 2024. The Raiders are underdogs in 15 of 17 regular season games and have a win total of 6.5 (Over -130).
There’s a ton of talent on this roster, just not where it matters most: quarterback. Neither Aiden O’Connell or Gardner Minshew put fear in opposing defenses and new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy also has a lot to prove.
Can the Raiders keep slaying spreads or will there be plenty of pissed-off bettors in Sin City this season? We take a look in my 2024 Las Vegas Raiders NFL betting preview and NFL picks.
Las Vegas Raiders odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +10000 |
| Win conference | +6000 |
| Win division | +900 |
| Make playoffs | +300 |
| Over 6.5 wins | -130 |
| Under 6.5 wins | +110 |
Best futures bet: Under 6.5 wins (-130)
Pierce’s work in the back half of the 2023 schedule was fun to watch but it wasn’t like the Las Vegas Raiders were running with the big boys. Outside of stunning the Chiefs on Xmas Day (thanks to two defensive TDs) the other victories came versus broken teams like the Giants, Jets, Chargers, and Broncos.
The possibility of seven wins from Vegas isn’t too far out there, but it hinges on quarterback play. And when stacked up against one of the toughest schedules – in terms of both win percentage and projected wins – Las Vegas is outmatched at that vital position. You have two matchups with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert in the AFC West while also facing Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins, and Trevor Lawrence.
Las Vegas Raiders at a glance: Everything but QB
The roster is sound in Sin City, with standouts on both sides of the ball and the Raiders very strong in the trenches. But like almost every season since the franchise moved to Las Vegas, quarterback play could ruin everything. Aiden O’Connell showed promise as a rookie but has a new system to learn with Getsy calling plays. Minshew is Minshew.
What will win bets: Defense
The pulse of Pierce’s 2023 reanimation job was the stop unit, which ranked No. 2 in EPA allowed per play from Week 9 to Week 18. Defensive coordinator Patrick Graham has always been a little passive, but the pass rush gets a shot in the arm with the addition of Christian Wilkins alongside Maxx Crosby.
The Raiders play a number of high-powered offenses and good QBs so staying within striking distance will be vital. Getsy’s offense leans on a downfield rushing attack and isn’t really built to trade blows with the better scoring attacks. The Raiders had the third fewest passing plays of 20-plus yards in 2023, so improvement is needed.
What will lose bets: Quarterback
The receiving corps is great, as long as Davante Adams isn’t catching “hospital balls” from a piss-poor passer. And with Week 1 rolling down the tracks, the Raiders still don’t have a clear picture of which QB will be under center. They know he'll have a mustache, but that's about it. Never a good sign.
O’Connell was better than expected last season, which wasn’t too tough considering the QB play before him. He wasn’t asked to do much, and the ground game made life easy for him. Minshew is the ultimate wild card but performs better as a Plan B than as a starter. In true Vegas fashion, he’s high risk/high reward but eventually craps out.
Las Vegas Raiders schedule + spot bet: Sinful schedule
As mentioned, Las Vegas is saddled with a very strong schedule, ranking Top 10 toughest in terms of both 2023 win percentage and 2024 win projections. We’ll know if the Raiders can hang by the time the Week 10 bye rolls around.
Look-ahead lines have Las Vegas as a favorite only twice all year, hosting fellow basement-dwellers Carolina (-4) and Denver (-3). The Raiders have nine underdog spreads of +3 or less, so there are several nail-biters on tap. Las Vegas finished 5-5 SU in one-score games last year but owned a 7-1-2 ATS record in those close ones.
The home stretch of the season could stir up another strong finish, with three of the last four games coming in the Death Star and all pegged with short underdog spreads. Vegas hosts Atlanta on MNF in Week 15 (+1), hosts Jacksonville (+1), visits New Orleans (+2.5), and hosts the L.A. Chargers in the Week 18 finale (+1).
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | @ L.A. Chargers |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | @ Baltimore |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | vs. Carolina |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | vs. Cleveland |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | @ Denver |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | vs. Pittsburgh |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | @ L.A. Rams |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | vs. Kansas City |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | @ Cincinnati |
| 10 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | @ Miami |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | vs. Denver |
| 13 | Friday, November 29 | @ Kansas City |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | @ Tampa Bay |
| 15 | Monday, December 16 | vs. Atlanta |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | vs. Jacksonville |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | @ New Orleans |
| 18 | TBD | vs. L.A. Chargers |
Spot bet: Week 14 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5, 44)
The Raiders come out of the bye with a road-heavy schedule, concluding at Tampa Bay in Week 14.
Las Vegas will be playing its second of back-to-back road games in this 1 p.m. ET start and its third away game in four weeks. Vegas does get a couple extra days off before battling the Bucs after visiting Arrowhead for a Friday game in Week 13.
And speaking of that AFC West war with the Chiefs, the Raiders catch a spot bet break with Kansas City closing out a grueling five games in 25 days versus Las Vegas on the short week. That hasn’t stopped books from setting K.C. as a 7.5-point home chalk in Week 13.
The Devante you know…
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +40000 |
| To win OPOY | +5000 |
| To lead NFL in receiving TD | +2500 |
| To lead NFL in receiving yards | +2200 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 6.5 receiving TD | +100 |
| Under 6.5 receiving TD | -120 |
| 10+ receiving TD | +750 |
| 13+ receiving TD | +1800 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 1,000.5 receiving yards | -110 |
| Under 1,000.5 receiving yards | -110 |
| 1,250+ receiving yards | +350 |
| Over 84.5 receptions | -110 |
| Under 84.5 receptions | -110 |
Best prop: Over 1,000.5 receiving yards (-110)
Quarterback questions temper the oddsmakers’ forecast for Davante Adams in 2024, but he still finished with more than 1,100 yards last season (finished Under his total of 1,250.5 yards) despite wanting to drive Jimmy Garoppolo out to the middle of the Nevada desert and leave him there.
Adams has a familiar playbook in Getsy’s offense going back to their time in Green Bay, so we’ll see plenty of passes coming his way – regardless of who’s under center for Vegas. He did cook up chemistry with O’Connell late in 2023, so Adams could have a say in who starts Week 1.
Player projections for Adams all call for more than 1,100 yards again in 2024 with some models setting the bar higher than 1,200 yards. If the look-ahead lines are right, Las Vegas will be playing from behind and could get sucked into potential shootouts against top-tier QBs.
Las Vegas Raiders trend: Home favorites
Finding a trend with teeth is tough with the Raiders due to the amount of shuffling on the field, sideline and front office since the move to Sin City. If anything, the Silver and Black have kept the home bettors happy with success against the spread when playing inside Allegiant Stadium.
The Raiders are 11-5-1 ATS at home over the past two seasons, which includes a 6-2-1 ATS count as hosts last year. Make Las Vegas the favorite in those homestands, and they’re 9-3 SU and ATS since 2022.
According to the look-ahead lines, the Raiders are giving points in only two home games in 2024.
Las Vegas Raiders as home favorites
- Week 3 vs. Carolina (-4)
- Week 12 vs. Denver (-3)
Not intended for use in MA.
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