The Detroit Lions look for their first win of the year as they head to Soldier Field to face the Chicago Bears in Week 4 of NFL action.
Although neither team looks anywhere near playoff-caliber this season, it's still a battle between division rivals and NFL betting lines have the Bears as 3-point home favorites.
Here are our best free Lions vs. Bears picks and predictions for Sunday, October 3, with kickoff at 1 p.m. ET.
Lions vs Bears odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
This line opened with the Bears at -3.5 and the Over/Under at 44. Early money has come in on the Lions and the Under, moving the line to -3 and the total to 41.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Lions vs Bears picks
Picks made on 10/01/2021 at 3:20 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Lions vs Bears game info
• Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Sunday, October 3, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Lions at Bears betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key injuries
Lions: Trey Flowers LB (Out), Tyrell Williams WR (Out), Jeff Okudah CB (Out), Taylor Decker OT (Out), DaShawn Hand DL (Out).
Bears: Andy Dalton QB (Out), Tashaun Gipson Sr. S (Out), Breshad Perriman WR (Out), Tarik Cohen RB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Bears.
Lions vs Bears predictions
Detroit +3 (-110)
Bears backers miss Mitchell Trubisky like a person misses their volatile, cruel, but exciting toxic ex. Except you didn't know you missed your ex until you realized the person you're now dating — whose idea of adventure is doing sudoku and drinking sauvignon blanc over the usual pinot grigio — is so painfully boring that you'd happily go back to evenings full of tears because at least you knew you felt alive inside.
The Bears opened their season by getting smashed by 20 points against the Rams before beating the Bengals 20-17 in Week 2, thanks to a strong performance from their defense. They followed up on that victory with a hideous performance last week against the Browns where they mustered 47 yards of total offense, including just one net passing yard! That's right, rookie quarterback Justin Fields completed six of 20 passes for 68 yards and was sacked nine times for a loss of 67 yards.
The Lions are 0-3 to begin the year but there are some positives to take away from their poor start. They played well in the second half of their season-opening rout at the hands of the 49ers (albeit in garbage time), had a 17-14 lead at the half against the Packers in Week 2, and were on the wrong side of record-breaking, game-winning 66-yard field goal as time expired against the Ravens last week.
While Detroit's new QB Jared Goff hasn't had much success attacking downfield, he has completed 69.9 percent of his passes and has a passer rating over 92.0 in each of his first three games this season.
Detroit entered the season with low expectations and despite still looking to get in the win column, it has shown fight. On the other hand, the Bears are in Year 4 of Matt Nagy's tenure and seem to be moving backward. Nagy's play-calling was beyond awful last week and his reluctance to name a starting QB for Sunday makes it seem like the writing is on the wall for him to get fired with another loss.
Morale seems higher with the Lions and that, along with the better passer, has me taking the visitors on the spread.
Under 41.5 (-110)
What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? I'm not sure but this is the opposite of that because, although the Bears have arguably the NFL's weakest aerial attack, the Lions have the worst pass defense. The Lions allow the highest quarterback rating (123.2) and most yards per pass attempt (9.6) in the league but the Bears are dead-last in QB rating (65.6) and yards per attempt (4.8).
Ultimately, we'll have to base our projections on what we saw last week. While Fields was a sitting duck in the pocket with pylons blocking for him, the Lions showed improvement in their pass rush, getting to Lamar Jackson with four sacks and bringing constant pressure.
If Detroit doesn't give whoever is under center for Chicago time to throw, they won't be able to exploit that vulnerable secondary. That said, the Lions aren't exactly equipped to light up the Bears' defense either.
Goff might be putting up efficient numbers but much of that has been on dump-offs and short plays, with the former Rams QB ranking last in the NFL in air yards per completion. If the Lions move the ball, it will likely be on chunk plays and drives which will drain the game clock. With the Bears going 5-15 O/U in their last 20 games at home, take the Under.
D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Over 37.5 (-110)
Speaking of Goff and check-down passes, one of his favorite targets this season has been running back D'Andre Swift. Swift appears on the injury list every week but keeps playing and getting plenty of reps.
The second-year player has posted over 40 receiving yards and at least four catches in every game this year and leads all NFL backs with 166 receiving yards.
The Bears allowed six catches and 74 receiving yards to Browns running back Kareem Hunt last week. That said, they also have the third-best sack percentage in the league so they'll likely pressure on Goff. Look for Goff to feel the heat and use Swift as an outlet early and often.
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