Lions vs Packers Odds, Picks, and TNF Predictions: Lions Take Advantage of Green Bay's Limping Line

Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers erased a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit in their Week 3 win, which is something that hadn’t happened in over 100 years in the organization.

Now the home side has the quick divisional turnaround to face the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field in prime-time as a slight home dog in the NFL odds.

With Love winning despite some terrible underlying numbers, and his hurting O-line facing a Detroit defense that racked up seven sacks last week, should TNF odds bettors be backing Jared Goff & Co. on the big stage tonight?

Here are my free NFL picks for a Week 4 NFC North showdown between the Lions and the Packers on September 28.

For more TNF coverage, make sure to check out Rob Paul's Jordan Love odds and props and Shawn Wronka's Lions vs. Packers props.

Lions vs Packers odds

Lions vs Packers predictions

The Green Bay Packers should be 1-2 with losses to Derek Carr/Jameis Winston and Desmond Ridder.

Jordan Love continues to be a subpar passer, ranking dead last in CPOE through three weeks, which is hard to do with Justin Fields in the league. He could be missing three members of his offensive line, and WR Christian Watson was DNP on the estimated injury report. Key members of this defense were also DNP Monday including Jaire Alexander, his backup, and LB De’Vondre Campbell. 

The Detroit Lions just outgained the Falcons 358 yards to 183 and had nearly three more yards per play than Atlanta in a sweatless 20-6 win with seven sacks. 

Green Bay faced that same Atlanta team on the road in Week 2 and lost 25-24, allowing 446 yards to its 224 yards and was outgained by a yard per play while losing the possession game badly. Atlanta ran all over them for 211 yards. 

I don’t like Green Bay at all in this spot. It’s a quick turnaround with a ton of injuries. Detroit is easily the best team they’ve seen this year and could have a big advantage on the pass rush with the injuries to the Green Bay O-line (three starters questionable) and the pressure the Lions created last week with seven sacks. 

With Love continuously throwing the ball into tight windows with his young receivers and Jared Goff flying under the radar as a Top 7 QB, I have to back the Lions on Thursday night.

Because I’m writing this on Tuesday when the line is Detroit -1.5, bettors who want to back the Lions might get a better number later in the week as the Packers get healthier. The look-ahead was Green Bay -1.5, and I think that’s where this could be headed if key members roll back and suit up.

As of now, I’m backing the Lions at -1.5 which could actually get longer if the injury report doesn’t improve for Green Bay. I’d love to see the Detroit offensive line get healthy, but the Lions’ injuries aren’t anywhere near Green Bay’s. Goff is the much better QB as well, and Love in prime time at home with the pressure on could show his true numbers, which aren’t good at all. 

FanDuel is also promoting a 50% profit boost for the Thursday night game. It does state that for some, the maximum wager amount is $200, which is a decent max if that number is available in your account. 

My best bet: Lions -1.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Lions vs Packers same-game parlay

Lions -1.5

Amon-Ra St. Brown to record 100+ receiving yards

Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD

+771 at FanDuel

Amon-Ra St. Brown could have an elite matchup if Alexander and his backup can't suit up. That's enough for me to go to the alternative markets and hit the century mark on a guy who has accomplished this in two of his three games this year.

If David Montgomery sits again, it will be the Jahmyr Gibbs show on the ground again. He handled almost all of the RB workload last week vs. Atlanta and Detroit loves running in the red zone. The Packers gave up over 200 rushing yards to the Falcons two weeks ago. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Lions vs Packers spread and Over/Under analysis

Green Bay was -1.5 on the lookahead, but reopened as a 2-point home dog for TNF vs. the Lions. Injuries are playing a massive factor here — as they have all season for the Packers — but as of right now, there are injuries across the board. 

Aaron Jones and Christian Watson were inactive last week, and it sounds like Jones might be in a better spot to go this week than Watson based on the practice report.

Three starters on the O-line are questionable early in the week in David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, and Zach Tom. All were DNP on the estimated injury report. Bahktiari and Jenkins were inactive last week, while Tom exited Week 3’s win over the Saints. 

Even on defense, it’s ugly. Top corner Jaire Alexander was inactive last week and is questionable, while his backup exited last week, as well. Linebacker De’Vondre Campbell also left early last week.

If these bodies return, the spread will flip with Green Bay as a favorite, but Detroit could also move to the -2.5 range if these guys can’t suit up on the short week.

Detroit held the Falcons to 183 yards last week and had seven sacks, but the O-line took some casualties as there are only four members of the active nine that don’t have an injury designation. It’s a deep O-line, but I’d be scared to wager on the Over 45 if both teams are missing two or three members of their respective O-lines. 

Both defenses rank in the Top 10 in pressure rate and can take advantage of the injuries, but Detroit does this by blitzing at almost half the rate that Green Bay does — leaving themselves in a better position to defend the pass. 

Jordan Love and his team should likely be 1-2 SU heading into prime time. The fourth-quarter comeback was the largest from the organization in over 100 years, and facing Jameis Winston is different than Derek Carr. 

Love continues to be aggressive and led all passers in Week 3 with passes thrown into 1-yard windows. He also ranks dead last in completion percentage over expected at -9.9%, which is worse than Justin Fields. He has young receivers, and coupled with the injuries and short week, I’m down on Green Bay for a second straight week. I think this total could also fall if the injury report doesn’t get any better.

Looking at usage, Romeo Doubs played a full set of snaps last week (61) with Dontayvion Wicks next at 47, and Jayden Reed with 44. Doubs and Reed lead the team with a 21% target share, while tight end Luke Musgrave has been a big part of the offense with a 16% target share. Samouri Toure is the deep threat with a 20-yard aDOT. 

In Detroit, Montgomery was inactive last week, so Gibbs had 17 rushes for 80 yards but only saw two targets in a positive game script. St. Brown has a hefty 29% target share, while rookie TE Sam LaPorta set a tight-end record with 18 receptions through the first three games of the season. He has at least five grabs in all three games this year and a 23% target share. 

Lions vs Packers betting trend to know

The Lions have cashed the second-half moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+8.40 units / 39% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Packers.

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