There’s a lot on the line Sunday night in the last game of the 2022-23 regular season. The Packers are on a roll and come in as 4.5-point home favorites, while the books are liking points in Lambeau with a 49.5 O/U in cold but clear conditions.
I’m liking both starting running backs to have big performances in what should be a slower-paced game than perhaps this total is indicating.
Here are my NFL player prop picks for Sunday Night Football’s battle between the Lions and Packers.
Also, be sure to check out our Rohit Ponnaioya's full SNF betting preview, as well as Robert Criscola's Aaron Rodgers spotlight props.
Lions vs Packers props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Lions vs Packers SNF props
Triple Watson
The Packers come into Week 18 very healthy in terms of pass-catchers, and this is likely the reason we’re seeing Christian Watson’s reception total falling to 3.5 after closing at 4.5 in four straight weeks.
Watson has become a very public name thanks to his recent touchdown production. But with so many mouths to feed, a slow offense, and a possible positive game script, getting his Under 3.5 receptions at +130 is solid value.
Watson might have a 20% target share over the last few weeks, but this is a slow offense that ranks dead last in pace of play. Aaron Rodgers has no issues taking the play clock to two seconds before snapping the ball, and Green Bay has a league-slowest 32.22 seconds per play when leading by seven or more.
The receiver has to deal with Romeo Doubs, Randall Cobb, Allen Lazard, and both running backs for targets. Watson has recorded five or more receptions just once in 13 games this season.
The receiver is also dealing with a hip injury that may have limited him last week, where he managed just one catch on five targets.
THE BLITZ projects this prop at 3.05 projected catches. Getting plus money, there is a lot to like with Watson’s Under 3.5 receptions.
Christian Watson Prop: Under 3.5 receptions (+130)
No Jones barred
Bettors hoping it was AJ Dillon’s backfield last week were left disappointed, as Aaron Jones got the majority of the work between the 20s vs. the Vikings, where he had 11 carries for 111 rushing yards. He also didn’t see a carry in the 4th quarter in the lopsided win.
Jones has a rushing total of 60.5 yards that opened at 58.5 but is still an easy Over for me vs. the Lions, who rank 28th in EPA vs. the rush and 29th in success rate. Only the Chargers are allowing more yards per rush than the Lions at 5.3 per carry. Jones had just nine rushing attempts vs. the Lions in the last meeting, as he suffered an ankle injury in the third quarter and didn’t return.
Jones might be ceding red zone work to Dillon, but when we’re betting on the yardage total, Jones is getting better opportunities to stack yards. He has better numbers in yards per carry (5.1), yards before contact (3.1), and yards after contact (1.9) than Dillon on the season. His rushing total also closed at 70.5 yards in the last meeting with Dillon in the lineup.
Aaron Jones Prop: Over 60.5 rushing yards (-110)
Barry bomb
Detroit running back Jamaal Williams needs one more rushing touchdown to tie Barry Sanders’ franchise record of 16. It's a feat that’s not lost on the running back or Lions RB coach Duce Staley.
Duce Staley said it would be "big" for Jamaal Williams to tie the franchise record for rushing TDs, needing just 1 more to tie Barry Sanders.
— Pride of Detroit (@PrideOfDetroit) January 6, 2023
"He's going to have many chances."
With his own positional coach telling us he’s going to see plenty of chances, bettors would be silly not to take his anytime touchdown.
Williams also needs just six more rushing yards to activate a $250,000 contract incentive for 1,000 yards. It could be a big day for the Detroit running back as he faces a Green Bay defense that's weak against the run.
The Packers are allowing 5.0 yards per carry this season, making them one of just five teams who give up five-plus yards per rush attempt. They also give up 1.0 rushing TDs per game, ranking in the bottom third of the league in that category.
Although he didn’t score vs. Green Bay in the last meeting, the running back did see a season-high 24 carries. If his coach is saying he is going to get “many chances” to tie or break Sanders’ record and books are still pricing this as normal, there is value in this play.
Jamaal Williams Prop: Anytime touchdown (+118)
