The Detroit Lions and Pittsburgh Steelers are, without a doubt, two NFL teams playing against one another this week. What this game lacks in glamour it makes up in NFL betting value and thankfully, that's what we're focusing on in this preview.
The winless Lions will come to Heinz Field as 8-point underdogs and while a win is likely out of the question (but who knows, as evidently every playoff contender in the AFC must take a hideous loss this year), can Detroit cover that spread?
A game with a face only a mother could love, here are our picks and predictions for the Lions vs. Steelers with kickoff on November 14.
(*Editor's Note: These picks were made prior to Saturday's news regarding Ben Roethlisberger's status as Out for Sunday.)
Lions vs Steelers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The line opened this week at Steelers -10 but action immediately favored the Lions and the spread steadily moved to where it sits as of Friday afternoon, at Pittsburgh -8. The total hit the board at 43.5 but was bet down to 42.5, where it is at time of publishing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Lions vs Steelers picks
Picks made on 11/12/2021 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Lions vs Steelers game info
• Location: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
• Date: Sunday, November 14, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Lions at Steelers betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Lions: Austin Bryant LB (Out), Austin Seibert K (Out), Jamaal Williams RB (Out).
Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger QB (Out), Chase Claypool WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Steelers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Steelers.
Lions vs Steelers predictions
Lions +8 (-110)
One of the final plays of Pittsburgh's Monday Night Football win over the Bears saw Ben Roethlisberger fake a handoff and pull the ball, taking off toward the right side. It was a beautiful mess and, despite ending as a one-yard gain, was quite possibly the longest play in NFL history. Now, stretch that out over four quarters and you have the 2021 Detroit Lions visiting the 2021 Pittsburgh Steelers.
On the back of a solid defense and an offense that's playing mistake-free for the most part, the Steelers are 5-3 and in the mix in a competitive AFC North and an AFC becoming more difficult to read every week. However, Pittsburgh is just 3-5 ATS, as its offense doesn't create any explosive plays (26th in the NFL in explosive play rate) and doesn't do anything with great efficiency, ranking 19th in both passing and rushing DVOA, and in the bottom-10 in points and yards per drive. (*And, obviously, having to turn to Mason Rudolph Sunday won't make the Steelers' offense any better.)
On defense, while the Steelers are able to get after the quarterback as efficiently as in previous seasons, that's about the only thing of value they do well (there's only so much worth to be found in a strong run defense in 2021). Their passing defense is 20th in DVOA and they rank in the bottom half of the league in explosive plays allowed both through the air and on the ground.
While Pittsburgh isn't exactly coming up against the '07 Patriots here, its inability to put teams away on offense should enable Detroit to hang around (or sneak a late cover thanks to garbage time heroics).
We've previously seen the Steelers fail to bury lesser teams, letting the Justin Fields-led Bears and Geno Smith-led Seahawks hang around despite those matchups being prime spots for Pittsburgh's defense to take over. They are 0-8 ATS in their last eight as a favorite and 0-7 in their last seven as a home favorite.
Detroit is a team not short on moral victories, and it'll score another here.
Under 42.5 (-110)
Between the philosophies of the two head coaches involved here and the limited passers they're working with, these are two teams who have committed to running the football in 2021.
The Lions run the ball at the highest rate on early downs with a neutral game script in the NFL, while the Steelers do so at the ninth-highest rate in the league. Like most teams that lean heavily on their running game in neutral situations, they aren't particularly efficient in doing so, with the Lions 28th and Steelers 19th in rushing DVOA.
Detroit's one of the slowest teams in the NFL, ranking 27th in pace in neutral situations, while the Steelers are middle of the pack at 16th. It is worth noting, however, the Steelers bleed the clock when leading at a high rate, as they're 26th in pace with a lead of a touchdown or greater. (The Lions still don't exactly make Sam Wyche proud when trailing, either, as they're just ninth in pace when trailing by a TD or more.)
Overall, we're not looking at offenses that operate with any sort of efficiency. We've got a Steelers offense 18th in DVOA, 25th in yards per drive, and 23rd in points per drive, and a Lions offense 30th in DVOA, 22nd in yards per drive, and 26th in points per drive. Put it all together and we've got an Under on the total in Pittsburgh.
Pat Freiermuth Over 34.5 receiving yards (-114)
The Steelers have seemingly found yet another quietly solid tight end in rookie Pat Freiermuth. The Penn State product has emerged in recent weeks after injuries to Chase Claypool and Juju Smith-Schuster, averaging 5.3 catches, 48.3 yards, and one touchdown per game over his last three.
The way Freiermuth has easily slid into a complementary role has been a boost to Pittsburgh's passing game and an aging quarterback in Roethlisberger, who is all too happy to take a target underneath. (*A reliable threat underneath, he'll retain value even with Rudolph under center.) His recent scoring surge seems sustainable, as well, with the tight end tough at the catch point and doing a good job of finding space in the traffic of the endzone in goal-to-go situations.
While we'd like to take him as an anytime TD scorer Sunday (+185), Detroit has actually done a good job of keeping opposing tight ends out, with George Kittle, Mark Andrews, Tyler Higbee, and Dallas Goedert going scoreless against it. The Lions have, however, been giving up decent yardage to the position, with an average of 52.25 allowed to tight ends this season. Freiermuth's three-game average is nearly in line with that but we are getting his receiving yards total at just 34.5.
