Sunday Night Football is the stage for an interesting non-conference contest when the Houston Texans host the Detroit Lions in Week 10.
Detroit is the hottest team in the NFC, stringing together six straight victories while covering the spread in each of those outings, and my early Lions vs. Texans predictions expect the visitors to cover yet again.
Here are my NFL picks for Sunday, November 10.
Lions vs Texans predictions
Early spread lean
Detroit Lions -3 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This spread has seen some massive moves and major money in the first 48 hours of action.
The Detroit Lions opened as a 3.5-point road favorite, and early play pushed that spread as high as -5 before respected money from sharps grabbed all the extra points with the Houston Texans on Monday morning, knocking this line back to a field goal across the industry.
With Detroit’s long-running against the spread success building a public following and the contrasting momentum of these teams, there will be no shortage of Lions money by the time this kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday night. This prime-time pairing will be one of the biggest “Joes vs. Pros” games of Week 10.
I wasn’t jumping on Detroit at the opener of -3.5 and preached caution with the chalk, as this will be back-to-back road games for the Lions and their fourth away tilt in the past five games.
To add to that, Houston is coming off a mini bye after losing to the New York Jets last Thursday and is expected to have standout WR Nico Collins back, as well as getting key bodies on defense healthy for Week 10.
The Texans absolutely showed value once this line got past the undervalued key number of +4, but that’s gone... for now.
At this current FG spread, I’d lean Lions. Detroit absolutely has the firepower to punch its way to a victory, and this tall total predicts a shootout. If Week 10 follows suit and public money piles back on the Lions, keep an eye on Houston if the line creeps past +4 again.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 50 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
We have a great showdown between two of the best offensive coordinators in the NFL, with Houston’s Bobby Slowik trying to match Detroit’s Ben Johnson. This is one of the taller totals on the Week 10 board, jumping from 49 to 50 points with Houston getting Collins back in play.
The Texans' offense has been hampered without its top target, averaging just over 19 points over the last three games. Houston has a shot to put some points on the board on Sunday night, coming back home to play on the fast track of NRG Stadium for just the second time since October 7.
The key for the Texans will be keeping C.J. Stroud upright after he suffered eight sacks against the Jets last Thursday. Not only is the offensive line tightening the bolts during the mini bye and getting some blockers back from injury, but expect Slowik to scheme quicker throws from Stroud on shorter dropbacks and play a faster tempo (second in NFL in plays per game).
Detroit’s winning ways are powered by an offense sitting No. 3 in DVOA and No. 4 in EPA per play, topping the total in four of those six victories. Last Sunday’s win over Green Bay was played in terrible weather at Lambeau Field, and the Lions historically see their output tempered outdoors. That won’t be an issue under the dome in Houston Sunday night.
With the early play on the Texans and the total only going up, the line movements are setting the stage for a Sunday night shootout in the Lone Star State.
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Lions vs Texans live odds
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