The hire of Jim Harbaugh had the sun shining on the Los Angeles Chargers again after a lifeless 5-12 SU and 6-11 ATS finish in 2023.
Then Justin Herbert hurt his foot. Now the future of the franchise — or at least the start to the 2024 campaign — is in question.
The Bolts hope that their star quarterback can recover from a pesky plantar fascia injury in time for Week 1. But that’s a lingering ailment that is easy to reaggravate and could stick with Herbert all year if not given time to heal.
That hiccup puts Los Angeles behind schedule in terms of transitioning to the new system under Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman. It also puts extra weight on the Chargers defense, which doesn’t have much beyond a handful of veteran standouts.
This isn’t what Harbaugh had in mind for his return to the pros and he’ll have to earn his big contract right out of the gate. Here’s my 2024 Los Angeles Chargers NFL betting preview and NFL picks.
Los Angeles Chargers odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +4500 |
| Win conference | +2200 |
| Win division | +320 |
| Make playoffs | +110 |
| Over 8.5 wins | -155 |
| Under 8.5 wins | +130 |
Best futures bet: Third in AFC West (+220)
The Los Angeles Chargers aren’t the Chiefs and most prognostications have L.A. penciled in for a second-place finish in the division, behind Kansas City. If you buy into the look-ahead lines and season win totals, the Bolts are better than the Raiders and Broncos by two to three wins. Yet, Justin Herbert’s funky foot leaves a lot of wiggle room.
There could be too much change to overcome in one season. The receiving corps is crap, the rushing attack is made of tissue paper, and the defense is also undergoing an overhaul with new coordinator Jesse Minter leaning on the aging legs of Joey Bosa, Khalik Mack, and Derwin James. It would not shock me to see the Bolts fall behind Denver or Las Vegas in 2024.
Los Angeles Chargers at a glance: The Harbaugh way
Perhaps the one saving grace around Herbert’s uncertainty is that Jim Harbaugh is going to run — a lot. He’s padded the offensive line for run blocking and brought in former Ravens at running back for a downhill focus. But happen when the defense buckles, and you have to play from behind?
What will win bets: Run game
Harbaugh and Roman will hit the ground running, literally. The roster was retooled for the rushing attack, bringing in some big blocking bodies on the offensive line and former Baltimore battering rams J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards.
Controlling the ground means keeping pressure off Hebert and parking a poor defense on the sideline. The passing game is not what it used to be, and timing will be off in the opening weeks due to Herbert’s injury. Luckily, four of the first six games come against defenses ranked 23rd or worse in success rate allowed per run in 2023.
What will lose bets: Defense
Last year’s defense wrapped up No. 26 in Defensive DVOA with a notable weakness against the pass. Rival quarterbacks boasted the fifth highest passer rating against the Chargers, who got torched for 61 receptions of 20-plus yards (fifth most), including 14 40-plus yard home runs allowed.
New defensive coordinator Jesse Minter wants to be aggressive up front, bringing the blitz and creating pressure in order to protect a soft secondary. The issue is Los Angeles front seven is among the weakest in the AFC and the highlights — Bosa and Mack — are aging rapidly. The schedule isn’t too challenging but does have Mahomes (twice), Jackson, Burrow, Murray, Cousins, Mayfield making throws against L.A.
Los Angeles Chargers schedule + spot bet: Once upon a time in Hollywood
The Chargers’ schedule is among the cushier calendars in the NFL, whether you look at from last year’s standings or this year’s projected finishes. That has a lot to do with how the betting market sees the Broncos and Raiders.
Los Angeles is a point spread favorite in nine of 17 games and has a win total of 8.5 (Over -155), but that’s without any major adjustments for Herbert’s health. As of this writing, the team expects him to be under center in Week 1. The Bolts have a good shot to open strong as their first seven games have spreads within a field goal (-3 to +3) and the team is a fave in four of those contests.
The Chargers were among the best Under bets in the league last season, going 5-12 Over/Under, and have stayed below the total in 65% of their games the past two years (12-22-1 O/U). That Under value could stick around given Harbaugh’s commitment to the run and Herbert health and shallow skill players.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | @ Las Vegas |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | @ Carolina |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | @ Pittsburgh |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | vs. Kansas City |
| 5 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | @ Denver |
| 7 | Monday, October 21 | @ Arizona |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | vs. New Orleans |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | @ Cleveland |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | vs. Tennessee |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | vs. Cincinnati |
| 12 | Monday, November 25 | vs. Baltimore |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | @ Atlanta |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | @ Kansas City |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | vs. Tampa Bay |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | vs. Denver |
| 17 | TBD | @ New England |
| 18 | TBD | vs. Las Vegas |
Spot bet: Week 13 @ Atlanta (+2.5, 47.5)
A non-conference clash on the other side of the country sets up a potential letdown/look-ahead sandwich spot for the Chargers in Week 13.
Los Angeles comes to the ATL for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT) on a short week after hosting Baltimore (Roman’s former team) on Monday Night Football in Week 12. This faceoff with the Falcons precedes another primetime game with the Bolts traveling to Kansas City for Sunday Night Football in Week 14.
FYI: The Chargers are 4-10-1 Over/Under versus the NFC the past three seasons, including 1-5-1 O/U in non-conference road games since 2021.
Herbert hurting
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +2200 |
| To win OPOY | +6000 |
| To lead NFL in passing TD | +3000 |
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +4000 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 22.5 passing TD | +105 |
| Under 22.5 passing TD | -125 |
| 25+ passing TD | +170 |
| 3-+ passing TD | +850 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 3,600.5 passing yards | -115 |
| Under 3,600.5 passing yards | -115 |
| 4,000+ passing yards | +300 |
| 4,500+ passing yards | +1800 |
Editor's Note: Justin Herbert OTB at DraftKings as of 8-15-2024.
Best prop: Under 3,575.5 passing yards (-112)
Some sportsbooks have pulled Herbert props until we get a clearer picture of his Week 1 status, but some shops have left them up and just adjusted the totals a touch. Even if Herbert was healthy, his passing production will take a hit in 2024.
This is the third new offense he’s had to learn in three seasons, going from Joe Lombardi to Kellen Moore to Greg Roman. His 2024 targets are the least-talented group of receivers he’s had in his career, along with the departure of passing-catching RB Austin Ekeler. Harbaugh is determined to run the ball, which is a huge departure from a playbook that threw at the sixth-highest rate in 2023.
Player projections are mixed for Herbert, with some calling for 3,800-plus passing yards while others are down as low as 3,200. Given all this above and the likelihood that foot injury slows him down or cost him games, I’m going Under on Herbert’s output.
Los Angeles Chargers trend: Divisional Unders
The Chargers underwent major changes ahead of 2024, so take any trends with this team with a grain of salt. Like the one that has them playing Under the total in 67% of their AFC West games the past three seasons.
Los Angeles is 6-12 Over/Under in divisional games since 2021, including a 1-5 O/U count in 2023. In fact, since moving the franchise to Los Angeles in 2017, the Chargers are 16-26 O/U in AFC West wars (62% Unders).
Los Angeles Chargers divisional games
- Week 1 vs. Las Vegas (43.5)
- Week 4 vs. Kansas City (46)
- Week 6 @ Denver (43)
- Week 14 @ Kansas City (44.5)
- Week 16 vs. Denver (43)
- Week 18 @ Las Vegas (43.5)
Not intended for use in MA.
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