The AFC East is among the tightest divisions in football, and right in the middle of that logjam are the Miami Dolphins.
Miami is behind the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets in terms of NFL offseason betting markets. The win totals, division futures, and look-ahead lines forecast a third-place finish for the Fins in 2024.
We know what we’re getting from Mike McDaniel’s offense and that’s an elite scoring attack that can gash you for big gains through the air and on the ground. The defense, however, is the biggest hang-up with the health of key pieces up in the air and a new coordinator making a seismic shift in scheme for the third straight season.
It will be a fight to the finish in the AFC East, and unfortunately for Miami backers, that’s when things fall apart for the Fins. In two years under McDaniel, the Dolphins are 4-8 SU (6-6 ATS) from Week 13 onward.
Can Miami march to a division title and take bettors along for the ride? We swim with the fishes in my 2024 Miami Dolphins betting preview and NFL picks.
Miami Dolphins odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +2200 |
| Win conference | +1100 |
| Win division | +200 |
| Make playoffs | -155 |
| Over 9.5 wins | -135 |
| Under 9.5 wins | +115 |
Best futures bet: Over 9.5 wins (-135)
The Miami Dolphins’ lookahead lines have them as favorites in 10 games, which reflects the win total of 9.5 (Over -135). Seven of those spreads come in the first seven games, which takes us to Week 8 before the going gets tough in November. The Fins are faves only three times in the final 10 games.
However, Miami could hit its stride just in time for the uptick in intensity. The defense will be ironed out under new DC Anthony Weaver and that unit could have standout LBs Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips back at full strength by then. Double-digit wins are very much in reach for the Dolphins.
Miami Dolphins at a glance: Skills to pay the bills
Miami is loaded on offense. Tua Tagovailoa is a good quarterback and has a big contract to prove it. He’s surrounded by a Top 5 run game and perhaps the best receiving corps in the AFC. The points are going to come but getting over the hump falls on Weaver.
What will win bets: Run game
We could single out the entire offense, but the run game specifically has a huge influence on how the season plays out for the Dolphins. The combo of Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane was Top 5 in EPA per handoff last year and added rookie RB Jaylen Wright. And that doesn’t include the short catch-and-run playbook either.
Establishing the run keeps defenses honest and takes the pressure of the Dolphins’ offensive line, which is mediocre at best. It also helps protect the defense. Chatter out of training camp calls for an uptick in handoffs and extended drives, limiting the exposure of the stop unit.
What will lose bets: Defense
All the points in the world may not pad the scoreboard enough if the Miami defense doesn’t adjust to another swap in scheme. The Dolphins are expected to be much more aggressive and blitz a lot, compared to Vic Fangio’s conservative sets. Miami has eight weeks to tighten the bolts on the stop unit before the schedule comes after them.
The secondary is still strong and the front office added some reliable veterans to fill gaps in the depth chart. The front seven is soft and may miss two standout linebackers in Chubb and Phillips to start the season (both recovering from late-season injuries in 2023). Rivals could chip away underneath and extend drives against the Fins, cooling the offense on the sidelines for a good chunk of clock.
Miami Dolphins schedule + spot bet: The cold November rain
In terms of strength of schedule, the Dolphins have the easiest slate in the AFC East. That really shows in the first two months, with Miami handing over points in each of its first seven games of 2024.
The Fins are at home in four of those seven games, giving them a solid home-field edge as the temperatures and humidity in South Beach reach sauna levels. Under McDaniel, Miami is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS at home between Week 1 and Week 8 the past two seasons.
However, as mentioned, the wheels wobble in the back half of the season. Miami is laying points only three times in the final 10 games and faces several contending teams with marquee matchups versus Buffalo, Los Angeles (N), Green Bay, Houston, Cleveland and New York (A) coming on the road — the latter two coming in cold weather venues in Weeks 17 and 18.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | vs. Jacksonville |
| 2 | Thursday, September 12 | vs. Buffalo |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | @ Seattle |
| 4 | Monday, September 30 | vs. Tennessee |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | @ New England |
| 6 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | @ Indianapolis |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | vs. Arizona |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | @ Buffalo |
| 10 | Monday, November 11 | @ Los Angeles (N) |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | vs. Las Vegas |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | vs. New England |
| 13 | Thursday, November 28 | @ Green Bay |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | vs. New York (A) |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | @ Houston |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | vs. San Francisco |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | @ Cleveland |
| 18 | TBD | @ New York (A) |
Spot bet: Week 10 @ Los Angeles Rams (+1, 47.5)
This Monday Night Football game in La-La Land will be a litmus test for the Dolphins’ validity as contenders. While Miami does get an extra day to rest before visiting the Rams, this will be the team’s second straight road game and third away tilt in four weeks. It also carries letdown weight with a trip to Orchard Park in Week 9.
There’s another tricky spot in the season finale, visiting the Jets with a potential division title on the line in Week 18 (+3, 45). While motivations could be mixed in this one, it will be the second of back-to-back cold weather road games and the Fins’ third roadie in four weeks to finish the season.
Take some off Tua
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +2500 |
| To win OPOY | +7500 |
| To lead NFL in passing TD | +1600 |
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +800 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 25.5 passing TD | -110 |
| Under 25.5 passing TD | -110 |
| 30+ passing TD | +300 |
| 35+ passing TD | +1300 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 4,100.5 passing yards | +100 |
| Under 4,100.5 passing yards | -125 |
| 4,500+ passing yards | +250 |
Best prop: Under 4,100.5 passing yards (+100)
Tagovailoa proved the doubters wrong in 2023, leading the NFL in passing with 4,624 yards and parlaying that into a monster $212.4 million deal. He has the offensive weapons to do it again, but the Dolphins may not need — or want — Tua to chuck it that much.
Miami’s ground game is equally as potent and a steady dose of the run keeps pass rushers at bay and allows the Dolphins to extend drives, unlike the home-run hitting offense that sat middle of the road in time of possession despite sitting second in yards per play. Could we see McDaniel throttle down a bit in 2024?
Player projections are a mixed bag for Tagovailoa, with models ranging from just over 4,000 passing yards to north of 4,200. There are some stout defensive opponents in the second half of the schedule and that could temper Tua’s output down the stretch along with outdoor games at Green Bay, Cleveland, and New York.
Miami Dolphins trend: Divisional home games
Say what you want about McDaniel, but the guy comes through for bettors against AFC East opponents.
In two seasons as head coach of the Dolphins, McDaniel is just 7-6 SU in divisional games but a profitable 10-3 ATS, including 5-1 SU and ATS against those rivals inside Hard Rock Stadium.
Miami Dolphins’ divisional home games
- Week 2 vs. Buffalo (-1, 51)
- Week 12 vs. New England (-7.5, 45)
- Week 14 vs. New York (A) (-2, 47.5)
Not intended for use in MA.
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