Best NFL Milestone Bets for Week 17: Meyers Primed for Breakout Game in Indy

50+ receiving yards

This one took some shopping around but I’m taking Las Vegas Raiders receiver Jakobi Meyers at 50+ yards. FanDuel has this at +157, which beats out bet365 at +145, though that's still a number I'd happily take this week.

It’s an indoor game which is always good for passing volume and efficiency. He's coming off a five-target game where he had three catches for 42 yards. It's worth mentioning that his quarterback didn’t complete a pass in the second half and had to face a very good secondary in KC. 

That will change this week as the Indianapolis Colts — especially at home — have been one of the most generous teams in football, giving up 26.6 points per game and 232 passing yards per contest — one yard fewer than the Commanders. 

It’s a buy-low week for Meyers as his 37.5-yard receiving total is a five-week low. Tight end Michael Mayer is out and 15-game starting corner Kenny Moore is very questionable for the Colts. 

There will be more passing Sunday for the Raiders than last week and Meyers could very well lead his team in yards.  

Jakobi Meyers prop: 50+ receiving yards (+157 at FanDuel)

25+ receiving yards 

Running back receiving yard milestones can be some of the best value plays out there and that’s the case this week with Tyjae Spears of the Tennessee Titans. His 25-plus receiving yard prop is a healthy +170 at bet365 (+162 at FanDuel and +150 at DraftKings).

The running back outsnapped Derrick Henry last week 56% to 48% (some 2-RB sets) and was a focal point of the passing game with Ryan Tannehill under center. Spears tied for the team-high in targets with six, where he caught five balls for 27 yards. 

There isn’t a lot of trust in Tannehill and the short passing game should be featured again this week after the veteran QB ranked 30th of 34 quarterbacks last week in average intended air yards at 5.1.

It’s a good matchup for Spears as well. There's a chance Tennessee is playing from behind as CJ Stroud is back under center for the Houston Texans. 

The Houston defense also gave up 8.1 yards per pass and 368 yards through the air last week. Its entire defensive line is questionable or out while the secondary currently has five players on IR. 

It’s one unit on the 25+ and I’m putting 0.25 units on the 50+ at +900. He's hit this just once but he's getting more routes and is winning the snap share. 

Tajae Spears prop: 25-plus receiving yards (+170 at bet365)

50+ receiving yards

If you can project garbage time, you can certainly find some milestone winners — just look at what we saw on Thursday night with Trevor Siemian.

The New England Patriots enter Week 17 as a massive double-digit dog and that could mean a lot of targets for rookie Demario Douglas, who had 74 yards last week in a game that featured a fairly neutral game script.

Douglas is the best receiver on this team that will be without JuJu Smith-Schuster and possibly Hunter Henry. He led all WRs and TEs in targets last week with eight and has averaged five catches per game over his last six. 

Zappe might also be back in the trust tree after leading all passers in CPOE last week vs. a decent Denver defense in Colorado.

The passing game should go through Douglas this week and the Patriots are one of the fastest-paced teams in football, ranking in the top third in pace of play. 

DeVante Parker is a good play as well at +165 for 50 yards, but Douglas is the better value as a player who leads his team in air-yard and target share. The potential garbage time yards are also making his 75+ yards very enticing and worth another half-unit from me. 

There is some rain in the forecast, which is why I’m hitting the 50-yard mark heavier, but the severity of the weather is tough to project here. It could be light snow. The important thing is the lack of heavy wind in Buffalo. Fifty looks easy and the 75+ is game-script dependant.   

Demario Douglas prop: 50-plus receiving yards (+110 at bet365)