October is my favorite month of the year.
While I love the shorts and flip-flops of the summer calendar, October’s "sweater weather" is where it's at, especially for a guy who perpetually runs at furnace levels of hot.
Not only is October the most comfortable month (suck it May) but it’s got a lot going on too. Canadian Thanksgiving, Halloween, and my birthday all fall in the "Falliest" of autumn months.
But along with the changing colors of the leaves is also a change in betting markets and NFL odds. As the calendar flips, so does the value of betting underdogs each week.
In September, point spreads have more to do with last year’s results, preseason projections, and public perception, leaving the door open for undervalued dogs to bite the bookies. We’ve seen just that, with underdogs covering at a 55.6% clip so far in 2024 (34-27-2 ATS). This is nothing new, as point-spread pups have cashed 55% of the time in the opening four weeks of play over the last 10 seasons (since 2015).
But come October, those wagering wrinkles have all been ironed out as oddsmakers have NFL spreads sharp enough to carve a Jack-o’-Lantern. From Week 5 onward, underdogs lose a little bark with every game, watching that 55% early-season windfall slowly turn brown, dry up, and die.
The cool autumn air, 6:15 p.m. sunsets, and the scent of "pumpkin spice" everything lets us know fun in the sun is over. And as someone who writes a weekly underdog NFL picks and predictions column, it’s the one thing about October that I don’t like.
Well, that and having to wear pants. Screw pants.
Last week: 2-1
Season: 7-5 ATS
NFL Week 5 picks and predictions
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons pick
I've got a bad feeling about this.
From Star Wars to Bill & Ted’s Excellent Adventure to No Country for Old Men, that classic phrase has foreshadowed plot-driven turmoil in multiple movies over the past 80 years.
The spread for Thursday Night Football invokes the same frightful foresight.
That "bad feeling" is better known as something else among the wagering community. It’s our version of the boogeyman. The dreaded trap line.
This game has all the makings of a trap. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are ripe for a letdown after beating up an injury-plagued foe to improve to 3-1 and are now playing on the short week in just their second road game of the season. The Bucs also have injuries up and down both sides of the depth chart, most significantly in the defensive front seven.
Yet, here I am, telling the boogeyman to take his trap and sit on it.
While the short week leaves little time for planning and a lot of opportunity for randomness, we do know this: Tampa Bay is coming for Kirk Cousins.
The Buccaneers blitz at the third-highest rate in the NFL, helping generate pressure on more than 25% of opponents dropbacks. That has Tampa among the leaders in QB hurries and QB hits.
Cousins and his questionable Achilles don’t move around too well these days, and his ratings through four games reflects that. He rates among the bottom QBs at PFF when pressured and blitzed and was sacked four total times and threw three combined interceptions versus blitz-happy schemes from Kansas City and Pittsburgh.
If the Bucs can jump out early — like they’ve been able to do this season — the Atlanta Falcons will abandon the run and leave Cousins exposed to punishment.
PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 (-110 at bet365)
Miami Dolphins +1 at New England Patriots pick
The Miami Dolphins were a mess on Monday night, but can you blame them?
The Dolphins were dealing with injury issues at quarterback and taking on a Tennessee defense that doesn’t get enough praise. That 31-12 loss has manifested itself in the Fins being 1-point pups on the road at the New England Patriots in Week 5.
To me, the Dolphins can only go up from here.
Emergency QB Tyler Huntley, who showed up as a free agent last week, gets a full run of practice in Mike McDaniel’s complex schemes, cooking up chemistry with the wide receivers. He also faces a New England defense ranked 25th in EPA allowed per play and 28th in DVOA, with a slew of ailments stripping that stop unit of any promise.
The Patriots offense is even worse, which is saying something, and could be down to a few rusty lawn chairs on the offensive line. The team is committed to QB Jacoby Brissett, who just isn’t pushing the ball downfield (third-lowest air yards per attempt) and New England has a measly four passing plays of 20 or more yards all season. That bails out a bad Dolphins defense that could be missing some bodies of its own in Week 5.
This spread is starting to swing, with some books at pick’em and others at Miami -1. I’m not necessarily "betting on" the Dolphins as I am "betting against" the Patriots.
PICK: Miami Dolphins +1 (-110 at BetMGM)
New York Giants +6.5 at Seattle Seahawks pick
Malik Nabers’ concussion status makes me nervous to back the New York Giants in Week 5. Things do seem to be trending in the right direction, though, with teammates and rumblings out of East Rutherford leaning toward the sensation rookie being ready to go.
New York catches a break with that injury after playing last Thursday and getting extra days for Nabers to get right. The Giants also enjoy a major rest and preparation edge after the Seattle Seahawks lost at Detroit on Monday night.
The G-Men gave Dallas a good fight last week and a botched field goal in the dying moments let them cover as 5.5-point home dogs. But the real positive was the play of quarterback Daniel Jones, who’s been very sharp the past two games.
In fact, "Danny Dimes" sits among the Top 10 in most advanced QB metrics the previous two weeks, including No. 2 in CPOE (completion percentage over expectation). He’s also been stretching the field with a renewed confidence in his arm, owning the ninth most air yards per attempt.
Seattle is in a tough spot in Week 5. Not only are the Seahawks crunched for time after playing Monday but they’re also sandwiched between a letdown spot (playing at Detroit on MNF) and a look-ahead spot (vs. the 49ers on TNF in Week 6).
Seattle’s vaunted defense showed some cracks against the Lions after puffing up its numbers against weaker foes in the first three games, especially when it came to rival QBs. Detroit QB Jared Goff was a perfect 18-for-18 passing, finishing with 292 yards and two TDs.
That group also continued to crowd the trainers’ room as well, losing Pro Bowl safety Julian Love to a thigh injury after playing without starters LB Uchenna Nwosu, LB Boye Mafe, DL Byron Murphy II, and DE Leonard Williams. All of those guys run the risk of not playing in Week 5.
The market is dropping early in the week, down to Seattle -6 at most shops. You can find the half-point hook on the key number still available as of this writing. Like we found out last Thursday, those half a points make all the difference.
PICK: New York Giants +6.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
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