There’s nothing better than NFL on a Saturday and this week we have a pair of games, headlined by the Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens. It’s a marquee matchup that will go a long way to deciding the outcome of the AFC North.
With a total of 44.5, there should be a few points scored and my Steelers vs. Ravens anytime touchdown picks are backing a couple of longer shots.
Keep reading for my best NFL picks for Saturday, December 21.
Steelers anytime touchdown pick
Mike Williams anytime touchdown
+400 at BetMGM
When it comes to picking a touchdown scorer against the Ravens we need to consider the defense that we’re facing. Nobody in the NFL has given up fewer rushing yards than the Baltimore Ravens and they’ve managed to do a good job of shutting down opposing running backs this year.
While they’re good against RBs they’ve been hemorrhaging yards through the air with only the Jacksonville Jaguars giving up more. With George Pickens out of the lineup, and the Ravens somewhat effective at limiting tight ends, that leaves us with Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin, or Mike Williams. Jefferson is WR No. 2 in red zone targets but the smarter play has to be Mike Williams.
The former Charger is slowly becoming part of this offense and has four receptions on six targets through the past two weeks. Given his 6”3 frame he should be a danger in the red zone and we’ve seen earlier in his career that he can be a major threat inside the 20. You’re getting big +400 odds on him scoring here, which feels like a good play.
Ravens anytime touchdown pick
Mark Andrews anytime touchdown
+220 at BetMGM
Derrick Henry is the obvious choice for a Ravens touchdown scorer but with such short odds, he isn’t a worthwhile selection. Instead, we’re going to look elsewhere for value and there’s one name that leaps out at +210 and that’s Mark Andrews.
The first five games of the season saw Andrews go scoreless. That led to reports that the 29-year-old was washed and no longer a key part of the offense. How foolish that looks now after the former Oklahoma man scored eight touchdowns in the nine following games.
Even with that spell at the start of the season, we’re seeing Andrews average just shy of four targets per game. Not only that but he’s been hugely efficient, catching 10 of his 12 red zone targets with eight of those catches turning into touchdowns. That’s far more effective than teammate Isaiah Likely who has one less target but five fewer touchdowns.
Andrews gets a huge chunk of the red zone offense for the Ravens and his 12 targets measure well when combined with the 13 that Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers have combined.
Over the past three weeks we’ve seen Andrews find the endzone each time and given how strong his form is there’s a very good chance that he scores again on Saturday, especially with Lamar Jackson playing at such a high level right now. At +210 we’re getting great value on a player who has shown time and again that they’re integral to this dynamic offense, especially in the red zone.
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