Best NFL Milestone Bets for Week 8: Back Mayer With Jimmy G Back Under Center

25-plus rushing yards

Gardner Minshew is not known as a rushing quarterback, but when the Indianapolis Colts pivot faced a Cleveland defense that predominantly plays man, he ran for 29 yards on three carries and two scores. I’m fully aware of the recency bias here, but that doesn't change the fact that things are looking similar to Sunday's matchup against the New Orleans Saints.

First off, the Saints also play a lot of man coverage. That’s great for big rushing gains as it’s tougher to break big runs vs. zone where there is less space. Just look at what Trevor Lawrence did vs. the Saints with a bad knee in Week 7 in prime time, as the Jacksonville QB ran eight times for a season-high 59 rushing yards. 

Baker Mayfield even hit the 25-yard mark with an eight-carry 31-yard performance in Week 4, while Jordan Love had nine carries for 39 yards the week before that. Bryce Young also finished with 34 yards on the ground in Week 2, meaning four of the eight QBs New Orleans has faced thus far have eclipsed the 25-yard rush mark. 

Because Minshew's rushing total is in the single digits, he is paying at +390 to get 25 rushing yards. It’s an indoor game with a Shane Steichen offense that loves its QB to take off. It’s 0.7 units for me here to win 2.73.

Gardner Minshew prop: 25-plus rushing yards (+390 at bet365)

50-plus receiving yards

Las Vegas Raiders tight end Michael Mayer didn’t do much with his five targets last week, but considering the rookie will have Jimmy Garoppolo back at QB this week, this means great things for Mayer's milestones. 

In Week 6 with Garoppolo throwing him the ball, the Notre Dame product caught five of his six targets for 75 yards. Last week’s dud might also be giving some value to his 50-plus yards, which is paying a hefty +550.

As an 8-point dog, there will be plenty of garbage time for this to hit and Mayer’s role as the No.1 tight end in this offense has been solidified. He played 71% of the snaps last week compared to Austin Hooper’s 34%, and an indoor setting only helps the cause this week. 

The Detroit Lions defense is also a great target for TE production. On the year, opposing TEs are averaging 6.1 catches for 62.7 yards, which both rank in the Bottom 5 of the league.

It’s a full unit here and the Halloween relationship with Mayer is just a coincidence.  

Michael Mayer prop: 50-plus receiving yards (+550 at bet365)

50-plus rushing yards

Roschon Johnson is back for the Chicago Bears after missing two weeks with a concussion. While he was gone, D’Onta Foreman averaged 5.0 yards per carry in his place. Many might think that it will be Foreman’s backfield this week, but this is not a coaching staff that is infatuated with Foreman one bit.

Foreman entered the season way down on the depth chart and was previously healthy-scratched multiple times. If Johnson gets the lead-back duties, he could easily top his 29.5 rushing total, which THE BLITZ released as a play and projects a whopping 48.24 yards from the rookie. 

That would make 50-plus rushing yards from Johnson at +390 an amazing +EV play. Chicago rushes at the seventh-highest rate in football despite the losing record and seldom abandons the run. Even if the Bears do play from behind, Johnson will likely see more snaps as the pass-catching back and could bust big gains vs. a soft preventative defense. 

If the staff moves to the rookie who is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, a 10-carry night could turn +390 into a winner. It’s a full unit for me. 

Roschon Johnson prop: 50-plus rushing yards (+390 at bet365)