Best NFL Milestone Bets for Week 9: Hubbard Puts Carries to Use

50-plus receiving yards

Breece Hall has dominated the backfield snaps of late and that includes the passing game as Zach Wilson is still Zach Wilson and can’t get the ball downfield.

In the rain last week vs. the Giants, the New York Jets running back had 76 receiving yards on six catches and nine targets. The game before that, he had 54 receiving yards after catching all five of his targets. 

This week, he's facing a defense that allows 54.9 receiving yards to opposing running backs which is the highest mark in football and Hall is paying a whopping +725 to hit the 50-yard mark again in Week 9.

Hall ran a route on 42% of Wilson dropbacks last week compared to Michael Carter’s 20%. The 42% also ranked third among New York wide receivers. Over the last two games, Hall has also accounted for 31% of his team’s receiving yards and his matchup this week is elite on Monday night.

The Los Angeles Chargers allow a league-high 297 passing yards per game which is 34 more yards than the second-worst team. Tony Pollard had 80 yards on six catches and seven targets vs. the Bolts and Josh Jacobs went 8/81/0 on 11 targets the week before that.

Good pass-catching backs have had their way with the Chargers while even mediocre receiving backs have continuously put up 25+ yards vs. this defense. 

Hall’s 25+ receiving yards is a solid +150 and something I’d price much closer to 50/50 with his current role, but the +725 for 50+ yards is worth the price of admission. If you want to get really cute, Ekeler/Hall 25+ receiving yards can be had at +320.

Breece Hall prop: 50-plus receiving yards (+725 at bet365)

75-plus rushing yards

Chubba Hubbard of the Carolina Panthers had a 66% snap share last week to Miles Sanders’ 19% as Thomas Brown’s first game of calling plays featured the former much more than the latter last week. 

Hubbard finished with 15 carries to Sander’s two as the former Eagles running back has been a giant disappointment in his first year with the Panthers.

Hubbard didn’t do much with those 15 carries — just 28 yards — but he is one game removed from an 89-yard rushing performance. He's been named the starter this week and has a great chance to cash 75-plus rushing yard Milestone that’s paying +425.

The Panthers face the Indianapolis Colts this weekend and that is a defense that gives up the most points per game at 28.6 and has been even worse of late with that number ballooning to 38 over the last three games. The Colts play at one of the fastest paces in football so their games see plenty of plays as their 69.3 plays allowed per game is the highest mark in the NFL.

This game should see plenty of neutral game script which should keep the Panthers in run mode.

In Brown’s first game as the play-caller last week, he got Hubbard involved in 17 of the 55 total plays and had a higher run percentage (44%) compared to Frank Reich at 36% in Weeks 1 to 7. Brown is a former RB coach so there might be some bias there as well. 

Either way, if Hubbard can get 15 carries again, the road to 75 yards is much more realistic than the +425 odds are indicating.  

Chuba Hubbard prop: 75-plus rushing yards (+425 at bet365)

50-plus total yards

Zach Charbonnet led the Seattle Seahawks backfield in snap share last week at 56.4% to Kenneth Walker’s 43.6%.

He was outcarried eight to five in a low-volume rushing game but the share in the backfield is a lot closer, by last week’s indication, than what is being priced in.

The Seahawks enter Week 9 as a 6-point dog so the rushing props have some volatility if Seattle trails significantly in this game. However, the rookie running back also had a 55.3% route share compared to Walker’s 28%. Charbonnet had just two targets in that game but could easily double that output with the game script.

Baltimore allows 125 total yards to opposing running backs which is a very high number considering the perception of this defense. It’s a tough matchup for opposing wideouts which could lead to more work from the Seattle backs in the passing game. 

Charbonnet is paying +200 for just 50 total yards which he could possibly break on the ground alone with double-digit carriers. He could also top this with some garbage time receiving yards.

Walker is back to full health but Charbonnet is a decent part of this offense even if he does lose the snap share. There are a lot of outs here and the +200 for just 50 total yards isn’t a lot to ask.  

Zach Charbonnet prop: 50-plus total yards (+200 at bet365)