The Minnesota Vikings are handing out name tags this offseason with almost half the roster flipped from 2023.
While the rest of the NFC North rushes forward, the Vikes take a couple of steps back as the rebuild begins in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. There’s little urgency in Minnesota, which is why look-ahead lines have the team favored in only four games in 2024.
Things will likely get worse before they get better, especially with a challenging schedule to open the season. But early struggles could lead to plenty of points from the bookies in the back half of the sked, when this revamped roster comes together and the new face of the franchise finally gets snaps.
The Vikings aren’t anxious to feed rookie QB J.J. McCarthy to the wolves but when the first-round pick is ready, he’ll have plenty of options in WR Justin Jefferson, RB Aaron Jones, and TE T.J. Hockenson, who’s still working his way back from an ACL injury.
Minnesota is one of the toughest teams to forecast, but we give it the ole Viking try. Here’s my 2024 Minnesota Vikings NFL betting preview and NFL picks.
Minnesota Vikings odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +8000 |
| Win conference | +4000 |
| Win division | +1000 |
| Make playoffs | +300 |
| Over 6.5 wins | -160 |
| Under 6.5 wins | +130 |
Best futures bet: Fourth in NFC North (-160)
The Lions are Super Bowl contenders, the Packers are right on their heels, and the Bears are projected to be leaps and bounds better. The Minnesota Vikings, however, have zero expectations in 2024.
Those three divisional foes are favorites in at least 10 games, according to look-ahead lines. Minnesota is giving points in only four games. The post-Kirk Cousins era comes with no pressure to perform. That’s not to say Minnesota is tanking in 2024, but its schedule is a lot tougher than you think – especially in the first half of the season.
You could play Under 7.5 wins at -170 or just keep it clean and bet the Vikes to come in a distant fourth place in the NFC North.
Minnesota Vikings at a glance: Practicing patience
The Vikings aren’t the only ones taking their time in 2024. Bettors may want to pump the breaks on Minnesota until later in the year. The team’s SOS based on projected wins ranks among the toughest in the land and the opening seven games features five playoff teams plus the Jets. McCarthy’s debut, Hockenson’s return, and the roster gelling could come with plenty of points in the second half of 2024.
What will win bets: Skill positions
Whether you’re a rookie or a grizzled veteran QB, the Vikings skill positions have everything a growing boy needs to succeed. Justin Jefferson is a big-play threat no matter who’s under center, Jones’ run/pass threat is real, and Hockenson (when healthy) is a great safety blanket.
McCarthy won’t be rushed into action and I’m one of the rare Sam Darnold fans out there. He’s played sparingly over the past two seasons – coming in late for Carolina in 2022 and serving as QB2 in San Francisco in 2023 – but his advanced metrics don’t suck. And he can run when he has to. Just sayin’.
What will lose bets: Defense
The bulk of roster changes come on that side of the ball, creating a learning curve for Flores’ complex schemes. While linebacker is the heart of Minnesota’s defense, it’s sandwiched between a talent-thin D-line and a soft secondary.
It doesn’t help that the Vikings face three high-powered offenses six times inside the division and also tangle with the likes of the 49ers, Texans, Jets, Rams, Titans, and Falcons. Flores’ group ranked a respectable 11th in Defensive DVOA in 2023 thanks to some pop-gun foes but hemorrhaged big points against capable scoring attacks.
Minnesota Vikings schedule + spot bet: This is what it sounds like when SKOL cries
The Vikings’ standard strength of schedule is misleading, ranked 16th in terms of 2023 win percentage. If you run down the opponents and their projected wins for 2024, the calendar is much more dauting.
The look-ahead lines reflect that challenge, as Minnesota is an underdog in 13 games. But bookies aren’t bailing on the Vikes entirely, as 11 of those spreads sit in field goal range (-3 to +3). The team’s season win total has jumped up and down as well, shifting from 6.5 (Over -160) to 7.5 (Under -180) depending on where you bet.
I’m looking at Overs from this team in 2024, with totals very tempered to an average of only 45 points – more specifically in the back half of the sked. The offense has stars and that will lift the QBs, especially in the final six weeks which has Minnesota at home for four of the final six and inside a dome in five of those final contests.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | @ New York (G) |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | vs. San Francisco |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | vs. Houston |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | @ Green Bay |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | vs. New York (J) |
| 6 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | vs. Detroit |
| 8 | Thursday, October 24 | @ Los Angeles |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | vs. Indianapolis |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | @ Jacksonville |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | @ Tennessee |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | @ Chicago |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | vs. Arizona |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | vs. Atlanta |
| 15 | Monday, December 16 | vs. Chicago |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | @ Seattle |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | vs. Green Bay |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | @ Detroit |
Spot bet: Week 12 @ Chicago (+3, 45)
Chicken or fish? The Vikings will hear that a lot during the middle of the 2024 schedule. The team travels six times in an eight-game stretch from Week 4 to Week 12, including an London showcase versus the Jets in Week 5 (followed by a Week 6 bye).
This stop in the Windy City will be Minnesota’s third straight road game after a pair of non-conference visitations at Jacksonville in Week 10 and Tennessee in Week 11. The Bears, on the other hand, will be enjoying their third straight stint at Soldier Field.
In two years under head coach Kevin O’Connell, the Vikes are 9-7 SU and 8-4-4 ATS on the road, however, he’s only 3-3 SU and ATS in divisional roadies.
Jefferson just incredible
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +13000 |
| To win OPOY | +1500 |
| To lead NFL in receiving TD | +1100 |
| To lead NFL in receiving yards | +1000 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 7.5 receiving TD | +100 |
| Under 7.5 receiving TD | -120 |
| 10+ receiving TD | +200 |
| 13+ receiving TD | +850 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 1,275.5 receiving yards | -130 |
| Under 1,275.5 receiving yards | +110 |
| Over 89.5 receptions | -110 |
| Under 89.5 receptions | -110 |
Best prop: Justin Jefferson Over 1,275.5 receiving yards (-130)
Jefferson is coming off a rough 2023 in which injuries limited him to 10 games, and half of those outings had backups under center. He still eclipsed 1,000 yards on 68 catches. The 2024 situation isn’t great for J.J. but he’s the type of talent that will lift his quarterback to new levels.
Minnesota was the third-most pass-happy playbook in 2023 because the ground game was crap and the Vikings trailed a lot in the second half. O’Connell is looking for balance but isn’t dumb. Jefferson is option No. 1 through No. 3 in the playbook.
Player projections call for 1,400-plus yards from Jefferson in 2024 and with Minnesota pegged as a pup most weeks, the offense will have no choice but to pass to its $140 million investment.
Minnesota Vikings trend: Indoor Overs
The injuries to Cousins and Jefferson impacted one of the best Overs bets in football last season. Minnesota finished just 7-10 Over/Under after boasting a collective 23-12 O/U count the two years prior.
That contrast wasn’t as great when Minnesota played indoors, finishing with a 5-6 O/U count in covered venues. That makes Minny 20-13 O/U (61% Overs) away from the elements since 2022. As mentioned, the Vikings’ look-ahead totals average out to 45 points and the final six games have them indoors five times.
Not intended for use in MA.
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