In my imagination, I picture beat reporters and local Boston media celebrating the departure of Bill Belichick like the Ewoks at the end of "Return of the Jedi." For the first time in this millennium, the New England Patriots are being coached by someone other than the hooded curmudgeon.
While new head coach (and Belichick disciple) Jerod Mayo has already been breath of fresh air in both the locker room and press conferences, there’s no denying the legacy Belichick leaves and the questions around his former club.
The NFL odds are expecting New England to stumble into the post-Belichick era, sticking it with an NFL-low win total of 4.5 (Over -150) and the lookahead lines peg the Pats as point-spread pups in all 17 regular season games.
Have we finally witnessed the fall of the Empire in New England? We pick through the rubble for value in my 2024 New England Patriots betting preview and NFL picks.
New England Patriots odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +18000 |
| Win conference | +10000 |
| Win division | +2500 |
| Make playoffs | +900 |
| Over 4.5 wins | -150 |
| Under 4.5 wins | +125 |
Best futures bet: Under 4.5 wins (+125)
Even the most optimistic of counts can’t cook up five wins from the New England Patriots’ 2024 schedule. Lookahead lines have them as underdogs in every game, getting an average of five points from bookies each week, and New England’s strength of schedule ranks at least Top 8 no matter how you like to slice it.
The team with the lowest season win total on the board routinely stays Under that short number (Arizona did it last year, as did Houston in 2022 and Detroit in 2021), so there’s a case for steering into the skid with a team like New England. And if you were thinking the Pats would never submit to a rebuild and turn on the tank, the Matthew Judon trade is evidence to the contrary.
New England Patriots at a glance: Kill Bill Vol. I
The defense is once again the lone bright spot for New England, even with Belichick’s departure, Mayo carries over his “do your job” approach with this group. The offense, on the other hand, has been a disaster since Tom Brady bailed and now there’s another rookie trying to live up to those lofty QB standards.
What will win bets: Plenty of points
As mentioned, New England draws an average spread of +5 from the lookahead lines and those spreads will continue to fatten with every loss. The Patriots are dogs of +3.5 or higher in 13 of their 17 games, putting a pesky hook in front of favorites each Sunday. Underdogs of +5 or higher have covered at a 53% clip over the past three seasons.
The Pats’ defense is once again the strength of this team after rating Top 8 in many of the fancy stats in 2023 like DVOA and EPA allowed. However, Judon is gone and Christian Barmore’s future is up in the air due to blood clots. Belichick was dogshit as a 'dog in the post-Brady era, boasting a 9-26 SU record and 13-21-1 ATS count when getting points since 2020.
What will lose bets: Offense
It’s already been a bad year for guys named “Drake,” so Patriots bettors beware. Rookie QB Drake Maye has raised some eyebrows with his play in camp and in the preseason, pushing for the QB1 job over veteran Jacoby Brissett for Week 1. Regardless of who’s under center, they won’t have much around them.
The offensive line is among the Bottom 5 in the NFL, the receiving corps could be the worst in the league, and RB Rhamondre Stevenson has watched his promise dry up due to injuries. New offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt is installing a quick-hitting West Coast playbook that flips running, blocking, and passing schemes. The Pats don’t get much of a break for any growing pains in 2024.
New England Patriots schedule + spot bet: Fall of an Empire
If parting ways with one of the greatest coaches in the history of sports wasn’t enough, the NFL schedule-makers handed the new-look Patriots a lit stick of dynamite in 2024. According to both win percentage and win projections, New England tangles with one of the hardest skeds in the land.
The slate doesn’t waste any time attacking the Pats, with the team on the road in three of the first four games, clashing with contenders in Cincinnati, New York (A), and San Francisco. And thanks to a trip across the pond to play Jacksonville in London in Week 7, the Patriots play six of their first 10 games away from Foxborough.
New England does have a notable home-field edge in three of its final four home games, welcoming indoor teams like Indianapolis and both Los Angeles franchises to Gillette for potential cold-weather matchups. However, it should be noted that the post-Brady Patriots were just 3-10 SU and 4-8-1 ATS as a home pup under Belichick.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | @ Cincinnati |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | vs. Seattle |
| 3 | Thursday, September 19 | @ New York (A) |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | @ San Francisco |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | vs. Miami |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | vs. Houston |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | @ Jacksonville (London) |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | vs. New York (A) |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | @ Tennessee |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | @ Chicago |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | vs. Los Angeles (N) |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | @ Miami |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | vs. Indianapolis |
| 14 | BYE | N/A |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | @ Arizona |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | @ Buffalo |
| 17 | TBD | vs. Los Angeles (A) |
| 18 | TBD | vs. Buffalo |
Spot bet: Week 4 @ San Francisco (+11.5, 45)
The biggest lookahead line on the 2024 NFL schedule comes when the Patriots cross the country to take on the 49ers in Week 4.
The host Niners are laying -11.5 against a New England team playing the second of back-to-back road games and their third road game in the first four weeks of the season. Kyle Shanahan is 12-1 SU but just 6-6-1 ATS as a double-digit fave since taking over the head coaching job in San Francisco.
The Patriots do get a mini-bye to brace for this non-conference contest after playing at New York on Thursday in Week 3. Under Belichick, the team was just 5-14 SU and 7-12 ATS against NFC foes the past three seasons.
Maye day
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +18000 |
| To win OPOY | +3500 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To lead NFL in passing TDs | +10000 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +15000 |
Best prop: N/A
If you need to take the temperature of the Patriots across the betting markets in 2024, the lack of player props is very telling. There’s nothing besides some rookie futures around Drake Maye. His activity could be limited, since Brissett has a head start with Van Pelt’s playbook, so a OROY bet is likely dead money.
New England Patriots trend: Non-conference Unders
When Tom Brady bailed in 2020, the Patriots became a hot Under play based on the downtick in offensive output and Belichick’s consistent work on defense. Bookies kept the totals low and slow and New England still leaned Under at 30-37-1 O/U.
The Unders are especially profitable when the Patriots stray out of the AFC. In that three-season span, New England is 6-13 Over/Under in non-conference games, including a 1-4 O/U count in those contests in 2023.
New England Patriots’ non-conference games
- Week 2 vs. Seattle (42.5)
- Week 4 @ San Francisco (45)
- Week 10 @ Chicago (43)
- Week 11 vs. Los Angeles (N) (43.5)
- Week 15 @ Arizona (44)
Not intended for use in MA.
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