The New Orleans Saints were one of the worst bets in the NFL last season, finishing 6-10-1 against the spread. That makes Dennis Allen 13-20-1 ATS in his two years since taking over the head coaching role.
If Allen can’t turn things around in 2024, the “good times” may not be the only things rolling in New Orleans. And based on the Saints’ stiff start to the upcoming schedule, “heads” could be on the move by November.
Thanks to life in the NFC South, NOLA was a betting favorite in 13 of its 17 games in 2023. This year, look-ahead lines have the Saints laying points just seven times with a season win total of 7.5 (Over -120). Division futures and playoff props aren’t optimistic about New Orleans either.
Is it more of the same in the Crescent City or can bettors flip their fortunes with New Orleans? Here’s my 2024 New Orleans Saints NFL betting preview and NFL picks.
New Orleans Saints odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +10,000 |
| Win conference | +4,500 |
| Win division | +340 |
| Make playoffs | +170 |
| Over 7.5 wins | -120 |
| Under 7.5 wins | +100 |
Best futures bet: Third in NFC South (+160)
Based on look-ahead lines, the New Orleans Saints are trailing Atlanta and Tampa Bay in the NFC South but well ahead of Carolina. The Saints are hoping the hire of new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak can kick-start a stale scoring attack just enough to support a solid defense.
Allen’s group ranked fourth in EPA allowed per play and generated 29 takeaways (fourth most) behind one of the best secondaries in the pros. However, those game-changing plays are tough to replicate (only had 14 in 2022), so those defensive stats will take a hit — especially with Tampa Bay and Atlanta putting up points.
New Orleans Saints at a glance: Depending on the defense
The franchise is slowly cutting ties to the Sean Payton era, asking Kubiak to breathe life into a wretched offensive line and rushing game. The defense will keep the Saints within striking distance, which is good considering 11 of their 17 look-ahead spreads sit within a field goal (-3 to +3).
What will win bets: Disruptive defense
If the Saints’ stop unit can keep turning out the takeaways, then NOLA has a shot at covering week to week. The defensive line isn’t great and lacked a pass rush in 2023, but the linebacker corps and secondary are sound. Under Allen, the team is 12-22 Over/Under (65% Unders).
The 2024 slate presents more challenges in terms of quality QBs, but New Orleans still faces plenty of pop-gun passers, with games against Carolina (twice), Denver, Cleveland, the Giants, Washington, and Las Vegas. You also have mystery surrounding divisional QBs Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield.
What will lose bets: Offensive line
Whether passing or running, the Saints’ blocking isn’t worth a neckful of Mardi Gras beads. This group is replacing multiple starters and rates among the worst protections in the NFL, based on advanced metrics and early grades out of training camp.
Kubiak’s schemes demand a lot from the O-line and his emphasis is improving the ground game, which was 31st in yards per carry last year. You also have the brittle bones of Derek Carr behind that line. He ranked 24th at Pro Football Focus among all qualified passers when under pressure in 2023.
New Orleans Saints schedule + spot bet: Sinful start for Saints
The SOS ratings say New Orleans is once again playing a soft slate in 2023, but the first nine weeks won’t feel like it.
After an easy Week 1 opener versus Carolina (-5), New Orleans plays a stint of three road games in four weeks which bleeds into a stretch of three games in 10 days, which is followed by back-to-back road games.
Contenders such as Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay show up in that stretch. Slow starts have plagued Dennis Allen’s time as head coach, with NOLA going 8-10 SU and a dismal 5-12-1 ATS in the first nine weeks of the last two years.
The closing eight outings offer opportunities if the Saints can survive that start intact. Five of those final games come inside the Superdome along with a bye in Week 12. New Orleans is a favorite in three of the final five games.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | vs. Carolina |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | @ Dallas |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | vs. Philadelphia |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | @ Atlanta |
| 5 | Monday, October 7 | @ Kansas City |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | vs. Tampa Bay |
| 7 | Thursday, October 17 | vs. Denver |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | @ Los Angeles (C) |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | @ Carolina |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | vs. Atlanta |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | vs. Cleveland |
| 12 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | vs. Los Angeles (R) |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | @ New York (G) |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | vs. Washington |
| 16 | Monday, December 23 | @ Green Bay |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | vs. Las Vegas |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | @ Tampa Bay |
Spot bet: Week 7 vs. Denver (-3.5, 42.5)
As noted above, the Saints stuff three games into 10 days in October. It’s a nasty schedule spot with a dash of letdown, following two quality foes the two games prior.
New Orleans is at Kansas City for Monday Night Football in Week 5 (+8) and hosts Tampa Bay in Week 6 (-1.5) before a quick turnaround to take on Denver on Thursday Night Football in Week 7 (-3.5).
The Saints are a miserable 6-12-1 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.
Can’t miss with Chris
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +40,000 |
| To win AWARD | +7,500 |
| To lead NFL in receiving TD | +2,500 |
| To lead NFL in receiving yards | +2,000 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 5.5 receiving TD | +105 |
| Under 5.5 receiving TD | -125 |
| 7+ receiving TD | +150 |
| 10+ receiving TD | +1,000 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 1,025.5 receiving yards | -110 |
| Under 1,025.5 receiving yards | -110 |
| 1,250+ receiving yards | +250 |
| Over 82.5 receptions | -110 |
| Under 82.5 receptions | -110 |
Best prop: Over 5.5 receiving touchdowns (+110)
Chris Olave finished with five touchdown catches in 2023, which seems low for a receiver of his caliber. New Orleans’ offense has stunk inside the red zone the past two years and Kubiak’s systems will utilize pre-snap motion and quicker passes, relying on Olave to add gains with his legs.
He recorded just 37.5% of red zone targets in 2023, with four of his five TD catches coming inside the 20-yard line. Player projections for 2024 range from 6.6 to 6.9 touchdowns and the Saints are set to face several suspect secondaries this season.
New Orleans Saints trend: Divisional Unders
Two seasons may not be the sample size we’re after when fishing for actionable trends, but during Dennis Allen’s two years as head coach, New Orleans is 12-22 Over/Under (65% Unders).
Put the Saints against NFC South foes and the Under hits at an 83% clip, boasting a 2-10 O/U mark against divisional opponents since 2022.
New Orleans Saints Divisional games
- Week 1 vs. Carolina (40.5)
- Week 4 @ Atlanta (44.5)
- Week 6 vs. Tampa Bay (43)
- Week 9 @ Carolina (40.5)
- Week 10 vs. Atlanta (44.5)
- Week 18 @ Tampa Bay (43)
Not intended for use in MA.
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