Joni Mitchell taught us that, “you don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone”.
In the case of Aaron Rodgers, the New York Jets only got four snaps with the veteran quarterback but now know what they’ve got: an elite defense, a bruising rushing attack, and a passing game ready to pop after being held back by rotten QB play in 2023.
The promise of Rodgers carried weight with the betting markets last summer and the bar is even higher in 2024. Gang Green lays points in 14 games, according to look-ahead lines, and their win total is at 10.5. New York is -175 to make the playoffs, a co-fave to win the AFC East, and among the second tier of Super Bowl contenders.
This is the Jets we’re talking about, however. So, anything can and will happen.
Are the J-E-T-S worth your B-E-T-S?! Find out in my NFL picks and my 2024 New York NFL betting preview.
New York Jets odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +2000 |
| Win conference | +1100 |
| Win division | +180 |
| Make playoffs | -175 |
| Over 9.5 wins | -150 |
| Under 9.5 wins | +125 |
Best futures bet: Four wins after Week 5 (+200)
Rather than risk a season-long wager on Aaron Rodgers' durability, we can protect against injury with this "Drive for Week 5" market. The “powers that be” have padded the New York Jets’ 2024 calendar with cupcakes. Gang Green opens with a banger in San Francisco on Monday Night Football in Week 1 (+5.5), but beyond that, New York is laying at least -4 against the next four foes.
Week 2 sends the Jets to Tennessee to play a Titans’ overhauled offense (-4) and Week 3 is a Thursday nighter with the putrid Patriots visiting MetLife (-7.5). That leaves a mini bye to brace for the Broncos at home in Week 4 (-7.5) before traveling to the UK for a matchup with Minnesota (-4). Defense alone should be enough to win four of those first five games.
New York Jets at a glance: Not all on Rodgers
If the Jets proved anything in a lost 2023 campaign it’s that they only need Aaron Rodgers to be better than Zach Wilson, which isn’t asking much. Rodgers can keep the chains moving and give the defense the rest that wasn’t there last year.
What will win bets: Defense
The Jets still won seven games in 2023 despite having their offensive game plans burned to the ground before most Jets fans could finish their first beer. The defense tops the preseason polls, most notably the front seven which recorded 48 sacks and the fourth-highest pressure rate last season. That sets up a stellar secondary to feast on hurried QBs and careless passes.
New York allowed less than 21 points per game and still burned bettors for a 6-10 ATS mark. Of the nine teams that gave up fewer points, all but two finished with a winning record against the spread. Outside of AFC East matchups with Buffalo and Miami as well as games versus San Francisco, Houston, and the L.A. Rams, the rest of the sked is loaded with pop-gun offenses.
What will lose bets: Puffed up points
The Jets’ offense set the bar at a “limbo champion” low last year and books are expecting a huge hike in performance in 2024. New York is laying points in 14 games and pegged as the point spread chalk of -4 or higher in half of those outings.
Given the soft start to the season, those spreads will balloon with every victory. New York could easily be 6-3 SU by the time it takes on Houston in a Thursday Night Football showdown in Week 8. We’ll see half and full points pumped into those lines, which could stunt any betting value with the Jets week to week.
New York Jets schedule + spot bet: Charmin soft
If you gauge the Jets’ strength of schedule by 2023 win percentage, New York ranks T-12 across the NFL. But if you shake out the 2024 slate by projected wins, Gang Green is gifted one of the five softest slates in the land.
As mentioned, the start of the year is very accommodating, and the Jets are underdogs only once (at 49ers in Week 1) in the first 13 weeks. Only Kansas City and San Francisco are listed as look-ahead favorites in more games this season.
On top of that, New York has schedule edges in important AFC East games. It hosts Buffalo for its second of back-to-back road games and third away tilt in four weeks on MNF in Week 6 and gets Miami in a similar spot in the Week 18 finale — a possible division decider with the Dolphins coming to New Jersey in the dead of winter.
The gifts keep coming: Denver comes to East Rutherford for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff in its second straight road game (and third in four games) in Week 4, and the aforementioned TNF clash with Houston in Week 9 will be the Texans’ third road game in four weeks, and the Rams make their way to MetLife for the similar schedule jam in Week 16, not only facing the East Coast cold but 10 a.m. PT wake-up call.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monday, September 9 | @ San Francisco |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | @ Tennessee |
| 3 | Thursday, September 19 | vs. New England |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | vs. Denver |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | @ Minnesota |
| 6 | Monday, October 14 | vs. Buffalo |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | @ Pittsburgh |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | @ New England |
| 9 | Thursday, October 31 | vs. Houston |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | @ Arizona |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | vs. Indianapolis |
| 12 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | vs. Seattle |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | @ Miami |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | @ Jacksonville |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | vs. Los Angeles (R) |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | @ Buffalo |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | vs. Miami |
Spot bet: Week 3 @ New England Patriots (-7.5, 42)
The Jets’ schedule isn’t all roses. They face a tough spot in Week 3, hosting the Patriots on Thursday Night Football. Thanks to the Monday night game at San Francisco in Week 1, Gang Green will play three games in 10 days to start 2024.
Books give New England +7.5 points. The Jets haven’t been this big a divisional favorite since 2018 and the franchise is 5-3 SU but 2-6 ATS laying -7 or higher versus an AFC East rival since 2000.
Rusty Rodgers
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +1600 |
| To win AWARD | +125 |
| To lead NFL in passing TD | +1600 |
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +2200 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 26.5 passing TD | +105 |
| Under 26.5 passing TD | -125 |
| 30+ passing TD | +220 |
| 35+ passing TD | +950 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 3,650.5 passing yards | -135 |
| Under 3,650.5 passing yards | +110 |
| 4,000+ passing yards | +165 |
| 4,500+ passing yards | +1300 |
Best prop: Over 7.5 interceptions (+100)
Do the Jets need Rodgers to find his MVP form? No. They really need him to keep the defense honest and not hurt them with turnovers. Unfortunately, Rodgers is going to have some ill-timed throws and try to make those MVP-caliber plays despite being shelved for a year.
In his final season in Green Bay, Rodgers was picked off 12 times. It was his highest INT count since his first full season as a starter. The Jets didn’t mortgage the farm for Rodgers to just hand the ball off, so he’ll twist Nathaniel Hackett’s arm when it comes to dialing up the pass.
Player projections all sit north of this 7.5 INT total, with some flirting with 10 interceptions from the veteran QB. New York does run into some solid secondaries, like the 49ers, Titans, Bills, Steelers, and Dolphins.
New York Jets trend: Divisional road games
Grasping an actionable trend is tough, considering 2023 was a throwaway in the eyes of Jets bettors and this team is very different with Rodgers’ healthy.
If we just look at Robert Saleh’s record in three seasons with the Jets, we do find a hiccup against AFC East foes and the 2024 campaign will be very competitive with Buffalo and Miami in the division. Since 2021, New York is 4-14 SU and 6-12 ATS versus AFC East foes, including a 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS count in divisional road games.
Two of the three games in which New York is a look-ahead underdog come on the road against AFC East rivals.
New York Jets’ divisional road games
- Week 8 @ New England (-4.5)
- Week 14 @ Miami (+2)
- Week 17 @ Buffalo (+2.5)
Not intended for use in MA.
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