NFL betting is back and Week 3’s slate is just around the corner. We're busy looking into every market in search of value and great numbers — so you don't have to!
Today, we are capitalizing on Buffalo’s banged up linebackers, hitting DeAndre again for the second straight week and banging the Under in the San Francisco passing game.
We break down the best NFL team and player props and bring you our favorite free picks and predictions for Week 3.
NFL Prop Picks for Sunday
Picking on Corners
Rookie cornerback Jeffrey Okudah played over 70 snaps in Week 2 and is now the proud owner of the NFL’s worst coverage rating. He played 12 snaps in the slot and the rest out wide versus the Packers’ receivers. Green Bay didn’t need to pass much last Sunday, but Aaron Rodgers still completed seven of 10 passes with Okudah in coverage. This week, the Detroit secondary will have its hands full with Kliff Kingsbury’s Arizona passing attack coming to town.
QB Kyler Murray has attempted at least 38 passes in each of the first two weeks, and will be targeting WRs DeAndre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald and Andy Isabella more with Christian Kirk being ruled out for the match. Hopkins has averaged 12.5 targets a game, a number that paces the league. Fitzgerald’s markets are a little too high for our liking (5.5 receptions and 53.4 yards), but we’ll be looking for Isabella’s markets to open closer to game day and are comfortable with backing Hopkins for the second straight week.
PREDICTION: DeAndre Hopkins Over 6.5 receptions (-118)
As Busy as a Higbee
The Buffalo Bills got shredded by Miami's Mike Gesicki last week, as the Dolphins tight end went for a 8/130/1. Buffalo was missing two starting linebackers in Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds, and both are questionable for Sunday’s game against the Rams. Milano is one of the best coverage linebackers in the league and without him, or against a banged-up version of him, the Rams’ Tyler Higbee could be in for a big day.
The Buffalo secondary is a tough unit to gain yards on, so we could see the Rams take a similar approach as the Dolphins did in Week 2. Miami targeted the middle of the field with their slot receiver and tight end heavily versus the Bills last week.
Higbee hasn’t blown up yet with his yardage and receptions (three TDs last week) this year, which is beneficial and gives us some reasonable totals in his markets. The Bills have allowed 15 receptions to opposing TEs through two weeks.
PREDICTION: Tyler Higbee Over 4.5 receptions (-103) and Over 0.5 TDs (+151)
Mulling over Mullens
The New York Giants surprisingly have the 12th-ranked passing defense. They also have the highest-ranked coverage cornerback in the league in James Bradberry. The 49ers are still banged up at the receiver position (much like every other position) and should lean on the run again with backup Nick Mullens getting the start over the injured Jimmy Garoppolo.
If Mullens and the Niners get up early on the Giants, we don’t expect Kyle Shanahan to unleash a passing attack spearheaded by Mullens and without TE George Kittle and WR Deebo Samuel. Mullens’ passing total sits at an aggressive 251.5 yards even though the G-men have allowed just 229 yards to Ben Roethlisberger in Week 1 and 190 yards to Mitch Trubisky in Week 2.
PREDICTION: Nick Mullens Under 251.5 passing yards (-118)
Sacked of Parliament
The Washington Football Team has 11 sacks through two weeks, which is the best mark in the league. The offense may be terrible, but the Washington front seven have been dominant at times. Eight different players have recorded a sack and 2020 first-rounder Chase Young is tied for the league lead at 2.5. Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield took 2.6 sacks per game last year and the O-line is weaker at the tackle position than the interior.
If Washington can’t get to Baker, then the Browns should have no problems getting to Dwayne Haskins Jr. The Washington QB is running one of the league’s worst offenses and heading into Sunday’s game as 7-point dogs. Haskins will likely have to play from behind, which means more chances for sacks. The second-year QB has been sacked seven times this year which is the third-most in the NFL.
Total sacks isn’t a market that’s widely available, but is an entertaining one if you can find it. Some books will open this market closer to kick-off.
PREDICTION: Washington/Cleveland Over 5.5 sacks (-120)
NFL prop picks for Saturday
Two-Way Buffalo
The Bills’ offense is rolling out of the gates and gaining 463 yards per game (3rd) heading into Week 3 versus the Rams. Receiver Stefon Diggs is tied for the league lead in yards with 239. If DeSean Jackson can go for a 6/64/0, Diggs should have no problem eclipsing 61.5. The Buffalo WR is 4-1 O/U on that total over his last five games.
Sticking with the Buffalo offense, rookie running back Zack Moss has been ruled out leaving Devin Singletary as the lone wolf and feature back. Singletary should see 75-85% of the action as no other Buffalo RB has a touch this year.
PREDICTION: Stefon Diggs Over 61.5 receiving yards (-120) and Devin Singletary Over 63.5 rushing yards (-125)
The Kyler’s the Limit
If you haven’t sat down and watched Kyler Murray run the Arizona offense, do yourself a favor and set away some time to do it. Murray has the red birds at 2-0 heading into their matchup with a JV Detroit Lions team. The Cardinals’ QB leads all signal-callers in rushing this year with 91 yards in Week 1 and 67 last week. Arizona also runs more plays than any other team in the league, which gives the second-year QB more chances to show off his magic.
The most athletic QB Detroit has seen this year was Mitch Trubisky in Week 1. The Chicago QB isn’t a slow quarterback by any means (4.67 speed), but Murray is a different beast. He has a 40-yard speed of 4.31 which is faster than Lamar Jackson's. This number is way too small.
PREDICTION: Kyler Murray Over 38.5 rushing yards (-120)
Darrell and the Hendersons
Los Angeles Rams running back Cam Akers has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Buffalo Bills. Akers missed most of last week as well and fellow RB Darrell Henderson took advantage of the extra work and exploded for 121 yards on 14 touches. Another heavy workload could be in store for Henderson on Sunday.
The second-year Henderson gained huge yards per touch against the Eagles, and rushed for 6.9 yards per carry and 28 yards per catch. With fellow veteran running back Malcolm Brown likely getting some reps, Henderson’s big-play ability has us liking his yardage totals a little more than his rushes or reception markets. The Bills let RB Myles Gaskin gain 82 yards on just 13 touches last week.
PREDICTION: Darrell Henderson Over 45.5 rushing yards (-115)
Burkhead to See Rise in Usage
The unfortunate absence of New England running back James White will carry into Week 3. Rex Burkhead saw 71% of the snaps last week without White, while Sony Michel had 21%. New England passed 44 times and Burkhead attracted six of those passes, which he turned in 47 yards. He will dominate the passing downs on Sunday while also getting some rushing action, as Michel is averaging on 2.9 yards per carry through two games.
If New England has to play catchup, Burkhead will have zero problems passing his receiving total of 17.5 and will still mix in when the Pats are rushing. This prop could be a one-play banger as the threat of Cam Newton’s rushing can help Burkhead get more space. Love this play.
PREDICTION: Rex Burkhead Over 17.5 receiving yards (-120)
NFL prop picks for Friday
Majority Ekeler
Last year the Carolina Panthers had the league’s worst run defense and averaged 1.9 rushing TDs against per game — by far the most in the league. This year, Carolina has picked up right where it left off: the rebuilding Panthers have allowed six rushing scores through two weeks. They don’t have the worst rush defense this year, but they are still an exploitable group for rushing TDs.
This week, the new Los Angeles Chargers offense gets to pad its stats versus the Panthers, who will be without their best player in Christian McCaffrey. Chargers RB Austin Ekeler has averaged 20 touches a game this year and was targeted more in the passing game last week with rookie QB Justin Herbert.
Ekeler is averaging 5.1 yards per carry but is also one of the best backs in the league in the passing game. We are banking on a big game from the L.A. back and are willing to triple-down on his markets. Las Vegas RB Josh Jacobs went for 139 total yards (93 rush, 46 receiving) and three scores against the Chargers in Week 1 and Ekeler could cash if he gets even a percentage of those numbers.
PREDICTION: Austin Ekeler Over 24.5 receiving yards (-120), Over 61.5 rushing yards (-115) and Over 0.5 TDs (+100)
Total McLaurin
There isn’t much nice to say about the Washington Football Team (get a name already) offense in 2020. Dwayne Haskins’ group is averaging the second-lowest yards per play at 4.3 but a date with the Cleveland Browns and their banged-up secondary could help inflate those numbers.
The Browns let Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow throw for 300 yards (yes it took over 60 throws, but c’mon) and if the Browns force Washington to play from behind — highly likely — then Haskins is going to have to air it out and WR Terry McLaurin will be the benefactor of negative game flow.
McLaurin leads the team with 17 targets this year and is coming off a 7/125/1 against the Cardinals last week. Cleveland’s best corner, Denzel Ward, showed up on the injury report on Thursday as a mid-week absence, which is never a good thing. McLaurin already had a good matchup against the Browns’ 30th-ranked pass DVOA defense, but possibly without Ward, the receiver could have an even bigger day.
PREDICTION: Terry McLaurin Over 57.5 receiving yards (-120)
Team Under Card
Last week we won some money backing the Green Bay Packers’ team total against a decimated Lions secondary. Now that the Pack have beaten Detroit and Minnesota — two of the league’s worst teams — the hype is a little too much for our liking. In Week 3, Aaron Rodgers and his Wisconsin curds have to play a solid New Orleans Saints defense that is looking to rebound after a primetime loss. Green Bay may also be without the services of WR Davante Adams, who is questionable for the Sunday night matchup.
The possible Adams absence and match up do not work in the favor of Green Bay’s offense: The Pack are a great running team but could find it tough sledding against a Saints front seven that allowed just 93.9 rushing yards per game in 2019. If Rodgers decides to go through the air, he has to face NOLA CB Janoris Jenkins, who is ranked as the fourth-best corner in all of football.
The Packers come falling back in Week 3 after beating up on two cupcake defenses in the first two weeks.
PREDICTION: Green Bay Packers Team Total Under 24.5 (-120)
Betting Against the Worst
It’s only the third week of the 2020 season and already New York Jets players are making excuses for their terrible play. Safety Bradley McDougald told SNY, “We’ve had some slow practices and it correlates to the game. We need to have a complete, full week of just great practices. I don’t think we’ve had that yet.”
Whether he is referring to his teammates or the coaches doesn’t matter, this is a team no bettor should be touching. The Jets could be using Braxton Berrios as their WR 1 Sunday versus the Indianapolis Colts, as the 0-2 Jets have been crippled by injuries to the offense. Already with the least-productive offense in yards per game, first downs per game and touchdowns per game, New York’s lengthy injury report will not help this group improve at all.
The Colts are sneakily leading the league in yards allowed per game and could blanket the Jets and their lack of skill on Sunday.
PREDICTION: New York Jets Under 1.5 total touchdowns (-190)
NFL prop picks for Thursday
The Big Bang Higbee
Los Angeles Rams TE Tyler Higbee is coming off a huge three-touchdown game in Week 2, where the fifth-year player caught all five of his targets and saw three red-zone targets. This week, Higbee and the Rams take on a Buffalo Bills team that is banged up at linebacker with starters Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds questionable after missing last week. Both practiced in a limited fashion on Tuesday but even if they do play Sunday, they won’t be at 100 percent.
Last week without Milano and Edmunds, the Bills allowed Miami TE Mike Gesicki to have a career day with an 8/130/1. The tight end saw 11 targets as the Bills have allowed 14 receptions to tight ends through two weeks. Higbee isn’t offering much of a discount in receptions (4.5 -175) and yards (51.5 -140) but his anytime TD is in our sights, especially with all the looks he got last week in the end zone.
PREDICTION: Tyler Higbee Over 0.5 TDs (+146)
Spirited DK
Sometimes betting on player props is just about watching a specific, exciting player. This week’s player spotlight is Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf. The 2019 second-rounder was a beast against the Patriots in primetime last Sunday night, going for 90-plus yards on five grabs. Metcalf has gained 92 and 95 yards in back-to-back games to start the season.
Opposing Metcalf and the Seahawks’ passing game are the Dallas Cowboys, who allowed WRs Calvin Ridley and Robert Woods to eclipse the 100-yard mark this year.
Sporting the week’s highest total at a climbing 56 points, the Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys are expected to score at will on Sunday. Seattle coach Pete Carroll could be unleashing his passing attack on Sunday after the running game didn’t impress in Week 2. We are putting our Pesos on Metcalf and will sit back and enjoy one of the best athletes in all of sports.
PREDICTION: DK Metcalf Over 62.5 receiving yards (-120)
Jones Going for Three
The running game may be under construction for the New York Giants, but QB Daniel Jones has found ways to start the season 2-0 O/U on his rushing totals. He hasn’t destroyed his totals, having rushed for 21 and 22 yards in back-to-back weeks, but Jones’ rushing consistency (averaging 21.5 rushing yards over his 14 NFL starts) makes the Giants’ signal-caller one of the first player prop markets we look at when markets open.
Facing a San Francisco defense without its best players and RB Saquon Barkley on the shelf, Jones could try to keep drives alive again in Week 3 in a game that New York is expected to lose and play from behind. As is with all QB rushing totals, the need to shop around is paramount as massive total differences can be found between books.
PREDICTION: Daniel Jones Over 17.5 rushing yards (-115)
Minshew Culture
No team in the league is allowing more yards per pass attempt than the Miami Dolphins. Through two weeks, the 'Phins are allowing over 10 yards per pass attempt and let Josh Allen throw for 417 yards in Week 2. On Thursday, Miami's first-year DC Josh Boyer will have to gameplan against the best QB in jean shorts since Brett Favre.
Jacksonville QB Gardner Minshew has tossed six TDs to date and is coming off a 339-yard performance against the Titans on the road last week. Helping Minshew’s matchup is the absence of Miami DB Byron Jones, who rated as the 14th-best corner in 2019 per PFF. With a short-week and a total above the key number of 47, we could see action on TNF as all primetime has been cashing the Overs. We are self-inflicting ourselves with Minshew Mania and taking the Over on his passing yards prop.
PREDICTION: Gardner Minshew Over 264.5 passing yards (-110)
NFL Week 3 prop betting card
- DeAndre Hopkins Over 6.5 receptions (-118)
- Tyler Higbee Over 4.5 receptions (-103) and Over 0.5 TDs (+151)
- Nick Mullens Under 251.5 passing yards (-118)
- Washington/Cleveland Over 5.5 sacks (-120)
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- Stefon Diggs Over 61.5 receiving yards (-120) and Devin Singletary Over 63.5 rushing yards (-125)
- Kyler Murray Over 38.5 rushing yards (-120)
- Darrell Henderson Over 45.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Rex Burkhead Over 17.5 receiving yards (-120)
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- Austin Ekeler Over 24.5 receiving yards (-120), Over 61.5 rushing yards (-115) and Over 0.5 TDs (+100)
- Terry McLaurin Over 57.5 receiving yards (-120)
- Green Bay Packers Team Total Under 24.5 (-120)
- New York Jets Under 1.5 total touchdowns (-190)
- -
- Tyler Higbee Over 0.5 TDs (+146)
- DK Metcalf Over 62.5 receiving yards (-120)
- Daniel Jones Over 17.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Gardner Minshew Over 264.5 passing yards (-110)
Where can I find NFL player props?
You can bet on NFL team and player props at nearly every online and casino sportsbooks. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL player and team props in your area.
