NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds: Can Rodgers Reignite the Jets in the Big Apple?

With Week 4 now in the books, NFL odds continue to position the veteran quarterback as the CPOY favorite following a devastating season-ending injury last year.

NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds

Player	Team	Position
Aaron Rodgers	New York Jets	QB	+140	+160	+160
Sam Darnold	Minnesota Vikings	QB	+250	+250	+225
Joe Burrow	Cincinnati Bengals	QB	+750	+650	+700
Kirk Cousins	Minnesota Vikings	QB	+1,000	+1,100	+1,000
J.K. Dobbins	Los Angeles Chargers	RB	+1,000	+1,300	+1,200
Kyler Murray	Arizona Cardinals	QB	+1,000	+1,500	+1,400
Damar Hamlin	Buffalo Bills	S	+1,000	+850	+900
Justin Fields	Pittsburgh Steelers	QB	+1,200	+3,400	OTB
Andy Dalton	Carolina Panthers	QB	+2,000	+3,200	+2,500
Anthony Richardson	Indianapolis Colts	QB	+3,000	+3,400	+3,300

Odds as of 10-1-2024.

Favorites to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year

Aaron Rodgers (+140 to +160)

When Aaron Rodgers was shipped to the New York Jets in April 2023, the future Hall-of-Game quarterback was poised to address the long-standing void at quarterback in Gotham City.

Unfortunately for Jets fans...disaster struck early in Week 1 when Rodgers went down with what ended up being a season-ending left Achilles tear. The four-time MVP returns to the gridiron in 2024 fully healthy, and the Jets made sure to address the offensive line in the first round of the draft to protect the 40-year-old. 

Sam Darnold (+225 to +250)

However, everything turned on its head when McCarthy suffered a torn ACL during the preseason. Darnold has since made the most of the opportunity, boasting a league-leading 11 passing touchdowns and leading the Vikings to a 4-0 start.

Sam Darnold to Jordan Addison for a 29-yard TD. Darnold still looking awesome. pic.twitter.com/0glHY8o2oF

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) September 29, 2024

Biggest faller: Anthony Richardson (+3,000 to +3,400)

NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting splits

• Leading the board before Week 1 at +175, Aaron Rodgers was commanding 18.1% of the handle at BetMGM.
  
  
• Nick Chubb topped the total amount of pre-Week 1 tickets wagered at BetMGM (15.1%), with Kyler Murray presenting the highest liability at +2,000. 

NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting trends

• Over the last six years, the NFL CPOY Award has been handed out to a quarterback.

• Although Ryan Tannehill won the award in 2019 after bouncing back from a poor 2018 season, the NFL CPOY Award has been handed out to players coming off significant injuries in recent years. Over a five-year period from 2014 to 2018, every Comeback Player of the Year had suffered a season-ending injury during the previous year — and Alex Smith won in 2020 after recovering from a devastating leg injury that almost required amputation. 

• Only one player has ever won this award more than once (Chad Pennington in 2006 and 2008). 

Previous NFL Comeback Player of the Year award winners

Year	NFL CPOY winner	Team
2023	Joe Flacco	Cleveland Browns
2022	Geno Smith	Seattle Seahawks
2021	Joe Burrow	Cincinnati Bengals
2020	Alex Smith	Washington Commanders
2019	Ryan Tannehill	Tennessee Titans
2018	Andrew Luck	Indianapolis Colts
2017	Keenan Allen	Los Angeles Chargers
2016	Jordy Nelson	Green Bay Packers
2015	Eric Berry	Kansas City Chiefs
2014	Rob Gronkowski	New England Patriots
2013	Philip Rivers	Los Angeles Chargers
2012	Peyton Manning	Denver Broncos
2011	Matthew Stafford	Detroit Lions
2010	Michael Vick	Philadelphia Eagles
2009	Tom Brady	New England Patriots
2008	Chad Pennington	Miami Dolphins

How to bet on NFL awards odds

Here are a few tips to keep in mind when wagering on NFL awards betting odds.  

Change your strategy at different points in the season

NFL awards odds will be adjusted by sportsbooks as the season goes on. In the preseason and the early weeks of the regular season, betting on dark horses can prove very profitable. As the season continues, expect to see odds tighten around the favorites. At that point, it becomes wise to focus on the players near the top of the odds board and betting big underdogs is unwise.

Look for value with underdogs

Live long shots can provide tremendous value. Look at younger players on the verge of breaking out, or guys that have already been playing at a high level but could take the next step now that they are in an ideal situation with a new team, coach or system. Other players that can give a great payout are established stars coming off underperforming seasons due to injuries or other factors.  

Follow the narrative

When placing futures bets on individual awards, keep in mind that voters, not a scoreboard, are often the deciding factor. Voters can be influenced by a variety of factors, including media coverage and public opinion. Consider what the media narrative is for a particular season and which players they seem to be rooting for and against. 

Research historical trends

Historical trends, especially recent ones, can give you a good idea of which way voters tend to lean. For example, the NFL MVP has been handed out to a quarterback in 14 of the last 15 seasons. Identifying those trends is a good way to separate the true contenders from the pretenders. 

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Comeback Player of the Year Odds FAQs

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