There’s an NFC North showdown in Week 11 as the Green Bay Packers are set to visit the Chicago Bears.
Green Bay will be rested and ready following a bye, and our top Packers vs. Bears predictions are calling for Chicago to lose its fourth straight convincingly.
Find out more in my NFL picks for Sunday, November 17. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Soldier Field in Chicago, with the game airing on FOX.
Packers vs Bears prediction
Who will win?
Not only have the Chicago Bears lost three straight, but they’ve also been abysmal on offense with just 9.0 points per game and the lowest EPA per play during the skid. With the Green Bay Packers having the benefit of an extra week of rest and prep following their bye, I’m anticipating the Cheesehead faithful to be celebrating a convincing victory Sunday afternoon.
Simply put, the Packers are in an entirely different tier than the Bears. I’m also expecting there to be an additional disconnect on offense for Chicago considering Thomas Brown has taken over for Shane Waldron at OC.
My best bet
Packers -5.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Chicago Bears have dropped three consecutive games while putting up a pedestrian average of just 9.0 points per game. All the while, the Green Bay Packers are coming off a Week 10 bye and have the benefit of extra rest and prep time.
Chicago is also last in EPA per play, and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt and a 50.5% completion percentage during the winless skid.
Williams and the Bears will now face a rested Green Bay defense ranked fourth in QB hurry percentage, and the Packers have also allowed the ninth-lowest EPA per play. Add in the fact that the Bears are banged up on the offensive line, and this checks out as a tough spot for Chicago.
Of course, Bears head coach Matt Eberflus is also rumored to have lost the locker room, and I expect even more disconnect on offense following the short turnaround at offensive coordinator.
Take the Packers to silence the crowd and cover at Soldier Field on Sunday.
Packers vs Bears same-game parlay
Packers -5.5
D.J. Moore Over 43.5 receiving yards
Josh Jacobs Over 13.5 receiving yards
It’s inexcusable that Bears wide receiver D.J. Moore has been limited to just 13 receptions for 104 yards on 24 targets over the past four games, and his targets per route run has dropped from 21.2% to start the season to just 15.1% during the four-game lull.
I’ll be shocked if Brown doesn’t pad Moore’s target share Sunday, and the second-year Bear was carrying a receiving yards total as high as 69.5 in Week 2. As a result, I view this as a buy-low number.
Turning to Packers running back Josh Jacobs, he's also in a rebound spot. After recording 20 or more receiving yards in four of the first six games of the year, he was held to just 25 across the three games before Green Bay’s bye.
Jacobs has hit the Over in this market in six of nine games, and he’s also posted his highest yards after the catch per reception since his rookie season. With Chicago allowing the ninth-highest catch percentage to opposing running backs, I'm expecting multiple easy grabs and scampers from Jacobs to clear this modest total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Packers vs Bears odds
Packers vs Bears live odds
Packers vs Bears opening odds
- Spread: Green Bay-6 | Chicago -6
- Moneyline: Green Bay -250 | Chicago +200
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Packers vs Bears spread and Over/Under analysis
- There’s been a lot of movement to this spread, with BetMGM opening Green Bay -6 and the number moving to -6.5 multiple times before dropping to -5.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- If the margin climbs back to Packers -6.5, I would expect Green Bay to be one of the most popular teaser picks on the board.
- This total has also seen a big move at BetMGM. The game opened at 42.5 and has dropped all the way down to 40.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- Given the highlighted shortcomings of the Chicago offense, it isn’t surprising. The Bears have also gone Under the number in three straight, and the Packers enter with a 1-3-1 Over/Under record across their past five.
- 73% of Covers Consensus users are backing Green Bay on the spread, while 56% are taking the Over.
Packers vs Bears betting trend to know
Chicago HC Matt Eberflus is 12-19-1 (43%) against the spread as an underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Bears.
Packers vs Bears game info
| Location: | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-17, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Packers vs Bears latest injuries
Packers vs Bears weather
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